Evans-Novak on McKinney v. Johnson

From the Evans-Noval Political Report:

Georgia-4: Despite her near victory in the first round of the election last month, and despite her strong performance in an extremely nasty debate with opponent Hank Johnson (D), the voters here appear finally to be on to Rep. Cynthia McKinney (D). Her fall in the polls after she took 47 percent in the July 17 primary was astronomical. Now she has climbed only to within 15 points of Johnson. In light of this, we have no choice but to change our initial call, leaning in her favor.

Still, there are approximately 15,000 Republican voters in the district who may have responded to the pollsters, but will not be eligible to vote against McKinney next week because they voted in the GOP primary. There is no party registration in Georgia, but crossover voting is forbidden in the runoff — in other words, the voters can only vote in the runoff if they voted in that same party’s primary last month. They can also vote next week if they did not vote last month. Those who went and voted in the hot GOP primary for lieutenant governor are now ineligible.

In a low-turnout runoff race that could be won with as few as 20,000 votes, this is significant. It also means that McKinney may be closer to Johnson than the polls indicate, and that she still has a chance of winning. Leaning Johnson.