Ladies-in-Waiting

The Cagle For Governor ’10 thread got me thinking…if all of our Congressman were to step down today, who would be the frontrunners to replace them?

Would the district stay with the same party?

Here they are by district…

1. Jack Kingston (R)

2. Sanford Bishop (D)

3. Jim Marshall (D)

4. Cynthia McKinney (D)

5. John Lewis (D)

6. Tom Price (R)

7. John Linder (R)

8. Lynn Westmoreland (R)

9. Charlie Norwood (R)

10. Nathan Deal (R)

11. Phil Gingrey (R)

12. John Barrow (D)

13. David Scott (D)

40 comments

  1. Demonbeck says:

    1. Jack Kingston (R) – This district would come down to a number of issues. First, does Eric Johnson want it? My guess is no, which makes this district more interesting. Frankly, it would come down to three people – Jerry Keen, Ron Stephens and Jeff Chapman – in that order with Buddy Carter on the outside as a darkhorse should these three pass. Stays Republican.

    2. Sanford Bishop (D) – This is an interesting seat that could easily switch parties. I see Michael Meyer Von Bremen running for it and possibly Sen. Tolleson taking it. (Of course I am assuming he lives in the 2nd. I can’t keep up with where the lines are from day to day.) Also, with Cathy Cox out of a job, she could run and win this seat.

    3. Jim Marshall (D) – This seat, like the 2nd, could switch at any moment. If Marshall stepped down today, Mac Collins would likely take it, but I don’t think he’d take it easily. Jack Ellis, as reported earlier is eyeing it from the D side.

    4. Cynthia McKinney (D) – Someone liberal would take this seat. I’ve always wanted to see Mr. CEO take a stab at it. With McKinney out of the way, would he?

    12. John Barrow (D) – Max Burns would take this district back if Barrow stepped down.

    I don’t know enough about the other districts, but I would love to see – Sam Zam take an Atlanta seat and Tommy Williams and Jeff Mullis take whatever districts they currently live in.

  2. Broty says:

    I have no idea who would run to replace John Linder in the 7th. My guess is it would be David Shafer vs. Don Balfour (or Reed vs. Cagle part deux!) I don’t know if Gwinnett County could handle it.

  3. Chris says:

    I’m chairman of the Draft Shafer for Congress Committee, but that is mostly out of my need for revenge. 🙂

    By the time Linder retires I suspect Ralph (assuming he is not in the federal pen) will have resolved the Abramoff thing and be able to win that primary.

    I’m not sure Balfour lives in 7CD anymore. I think he is in Deal’s district.

  4. John Silage Jr. says:

    The 2nd district will go to the Democrat. The district has a high population of blacks. I think Bush barely won in 2000 in that district-don’t know about 2004. It is probobly one of the most socially conservative districts in the U.S. but the blacks’ allegience to the Democratic Party prevents it from being a GOP seat.

  5. John Silage Jr. says:

    BTW, remember you don’t have to live in the district that you are running for–you just need to live in Georgia.

  6. Jason says:

    Chris,

    I appreciate that. I actually just got back from a local event that Westmoreland was at. He is a nice guy, but I’m a little frustrated with him.

  7. Chris says:

    True, but when was the last time someone who lived in a different district won? Espically when they weren’t gerrymandered out of their district.

  8. buzzbrockway says:

    Since I live in th 7th, I’ll take that one on.

    It will most definitely stay Republican, but who would replace Linder is anyone’s guess. I suspect it would be a crowded field that might include:

    Sen. Don Balfour
    Sen. Renee Unterman
    Sen. David Shafer
    Rep. Mike Coan
    Rep. Donna Sheldon
    Rep. John Heard
    Rep. David Casas
    Commission Chairman Charles Bannister
    Commissioner Kevin Kenerly (assuming he survives the 8/08 runoff)
    District Attorney Danny Porter

    I’m sure some others would pop up, but I would suspect the front runner would emerge from the group I listed – most likely one of the Senators. If and when Linder retires, it will set off a domino effect that would reshape Gwinnett’s political landscape.

  9. Bull Moose says:

    Okay, since I only know about two districts, I’m sticking to that…

    1st District. Do not rule out Tommie Williams as a candidate. Buddy Carter does not live in the 1st District so he would not be a candidate for that seat. I agree, Jeff Chapman would make a good candidate for Congress as well.

    12th District. Here is where Buddy Carter might be a candidate. I think it would take someone from Chatham County.

  10. Demonbeck says:

    Bull –

    You are right about Carter in the 12th, my mistake. Does Williams live in the 1st or the 12th?

  11. JasonW says:

    LOL @ InTheArena. I agree, I’d vote for Jeff.

    For Kingstons district:
    Jerry Keene,
    Jeff Chapman
    Greg Goggans
    Cecily Hill
    Eric Johnson

  12. Demonbeck says:

    JasonW,

    I’d mark Goggans off the list. While his district is the center of the 1st, the population base is in Chathan, Glynn and McIntosh/Bryan/Liberty Counties.

    Frankly, the race is Eric Johnson’s if he wants it. If not, Jerry Keen has it all but locked up. If he should pass as well, then it comes down to Ron Stephens and Jeff Chapman IMO.

    Wait ’til ’10 and you might see Mark Williams make a viable argument to be included in this group as well.

  13. MountainThinker says:

    Nathan Deal’s Seat in 9th:

    In no particular order:

    Sen. Chip Pearson
    Sen. Jeff Mullis
    Talk-Radio Host Martha Zoller
    Rep. David Ralston
    Sen. Bill Stephens

    Charlie Norwood’s Seat in the 10th?

    Sen. Brian Kemp
    Sen. Ralph Hudgens
    and I’m sure there are others…

  14. MrGOPJr says:

    If Norwood were to step down:

    – Dr. Paul Broun Jr. (son of the late state Sen. Paul Broun of Athens and ’96 GOP U.S. Senate candidate) has already said he will run when Rep. Norwood retires.

    Other potential candidates:

    – Rep. Bob Smith (R)

    – Sen. Ralph Hudgens (R)

    – Sen. Brian Kemp (R)

    – Rep. Alan Powell (D or R–who knows what he would be if he ran for Congress?)

    – Rep. Jeanette Jamieson (D or R–who knows what she would be if she ran for Congress?)

  15. jacewalden says:

    MountainThinker,

    I agree with on almost every name. I would put them in this order, though:

    Sen. Chip Pearson
    Rep. David Ralston
    Sen. Jeff Mullis

    I don’t think Zoller would do it; and I think Stephens resides outside the district.

  16. Bull Moose says:

    I hate hate hate threads like this…

    In the 1st District, I’d vote for Jeff Chapman. He’d be my first pick.

  17. rugby_fan says:

    If Republicans and CC supporters start ruminating about him a ’10 governorship, you’ll lose the fight on hand…ok the one in a few days. 🙂

    As Bill Stephens told me: Anyone who thinks about future candidates or races and not the one on hand is pretty arrogant. (btw, I am not endorsing him in any way).

    On that note, when do we start thinking about 2014? Hell, why not think about 2018? I heard there will be a definite slew of excellent candidates!

    Go ahead, discuss it and worry about it all day…hand the Dems the race if you do.

  18. Bill Simon says:

    Danny Porter? Danny Porter is the king of law enforcement in Gwinnett County as the County DA. Why would he want to leave that position of rule to become one of 435 howling mutts?

  19. DTK says:

    “True, but when was the last time someone who lived in a different district won? Espically when they weren’t gerrymandered out of their district.”

    I think both Gingrey and Scott didn’t live in their districts when they were first elected in 2002. After the redrawing of the maps, they may be living in them now though.

  20. CobbGOPer says:

    If Westmoreland ever left his seat, I most certainly think Sen. Ronnie Chance would have a great shot at pulling that district. He could raise so much money… it would be over before it began.

  21. Big Mack says:

    The 2nd district might not stay Democratic if Sanford dropped dead. There are 41% black voters in the second. Bush only carried the second by 150 votes. There isn’t another prominent black on the horizon to take Sanford’s place. His strength in the district is in the hands of the large white farmers in Calhoun, Randolph, Early, Miller, Seminole,Decatur, Thomas, Mitchell, Baker and Grady (Southwest Georgia) counties. He lives in Columbus and Synovus Financial Corp. put him in office. He provided what ever the big farmers wanted when the Dems were in charge. Now Saxby, Johnny and Jack Kingston protect him by giving him what he wants in exchange for his vote on important issues. He’s gay and married an out of the closet lesbian a couple of years ago. Maybe he will drop dead and Sen Joseph Carter will run for this spot.

  22. Brian from Ellijay says:

    9th District:

    Rep. Ron Forster
    David Ralston
    Sen. Jeff Mullis
    Chip Pearson

    Martha Zoller has said she will run as her child will be in college at that time. Herman Clark has also said that he will run if he does not get win his current race for judge. Truth is that Zoller will have tons of name ID and is from Gainesville which is one of two population centers. Chris Riley or Nathans son could also run. Bob Barr also has a law firm in Jasper.

  23. techtrack says:

    mountainthinker,
    if stephens and kemp lose do you still think they are congressional candidates?

  24. Brian from Ellijay says:

    Tech, yes. Simply put they will have the name ID and records to run on. They will not be done. But who says Stephens is going to lose 🙂

    PS, I remember when folks assumed that Casey was running to build his name ID for Nathans seat. They all assumed he would lose only to run again. Why cant the same be said for Stephens or Kemp?

  25. buzzbrockway says:

    Brian,

    With all due respect to Sen. Shafer, I don’t think the 7th would be won that easily. There are plenty of talented and experienced people in this district. It would be a real fight, should Linder retire.

    BTW. There are often rumors that Linder’s about to retire, but I doubt will happen anytime soon. I just don’t see Linder leaving until either the Fair Tax passes or he thinks he’s done all he can with it.

  26. elaine says:

    CobbGOPer,

    Don’t dismiss the potential of Sen. Mitch Seabaugh for the Westmoreland seat. He may be factor along with Sen. Chance.

  27. Broty says:

    I think the 7th will always be represented by John Linder.

    Rumor has it that B.J. VanGundy is secretly working in his basement on Linder clones that will be ready to go once the real John Linder decides to retire.

  28. mr_underhill says:

    Don’t count out Herman Cain for Lynn Westmoreland’s seat. He could beat all comers if he decided to run.

  29. MountainThinker says:

    Mr. Underhill, You mean the seat Herman should have run for in ’04? He’d be Congressman Cain right now if he had…

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