IA: McKinney trailing badly.

From Insider Advantage:

(7/27/06) An InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion Survey conducted July 25-26, 2006, shows incumbent U.S. Rep. Cynthia McKinney (D-4) trailing her runoff opponent, DeKalb County Commissioner Hank Johnson, by a wide margin. The survey of almost 500 registered voters in Georgia’s 4th Congressional District shows the following:

Q: In the August 8, 2006, primary runoff between Cynthia McKinney and Hank Johnson, would you vote for Cynthia McKinney or Hank Johnson?

Cynthia McKinney – 21 percent
Hank Johnson – 46 percent
Don’t Know/Undecided – 33 percent

The survey of 480 likely voters was weighted for political affiliation (Georgia has an open primary system), eligibility to vote in the primary, age, race and gender. The margin of error is plus/minus 5 percent.

16 comments

  1. GAWire says:

    Ok, as much as I love to hear McKinney is trailing by more than 20 pts, all I can think about with Insider Advantage is the fact that they said Reed was leading by 10 pts going into Primary Day. Moreover, I can’t get the picture of Towery and his cheezy webcasts saying that Reed has a considerable lead and their poll of “300 Georgians”.

    Yeah, sure, Matt … I’ll believe McKinney is down by more than 20 when I see Reed being sworn in as Lt. Governor.

  2. conservativecore says:

    Someone refresh my memory but I think IA and Towery said that Lamutt would win by 8 when in fact he lost by 8

  3. rugby_fan says:

    say what you will about IA but, if there is a 20 point spread and mckinney looses, then that means IA is an egregiously incompetent firm. Not just wrong, but not able to perform simple tests.

    Moreover, 500 responses in a district makes for a very accurate poll…if the tests are done properly.

  4. RiverRat says:

    What is the point to polling this when we know it will be very close (see the actual election results), and when we know that there is a wildly unpredictable turnout/cross-over factor? This is a waste of time.

  5. landman says:

    It amazes me that anyone would take anything they say seriously.Remember me telling you all about the Nine Point Cagle lead ,now Im not a pollster but you may want to take the word of a Landman over some A** kissing Pollster like this outfit.

  6. Decaturguy says:

    I don’t believe those numbers for a second. Johnson may very well be at 46% (that’s about what he got on election day), but McKinney at 21%? That’s impossible.

  7. CHelf says:

    He’s probably polling north DeKalb, Gwinnett, and Rockdale. He missed Cynthia’s main area of support. He missed out on some of the main cemeteries in DeKalb as well.

  8. techtrack says:

    in looking through old posts, this is what IA had in other races

    reed/cagle – dead heat
    taylor +12
    martin/hecht run-off – martin +5
    handel/stephens run-off – handel +10
    black/kemp run-off – black +5

    those numbers are the spreads of his last polls before 7/18.

  9. Chris says:

    33% undecided in the McKinney race?

    Ah, those are probably the dead people who didn’t answer yes to either McKinney or Johnson.

  10. Fiddes says:

    The key words in that post are: “The survey of almost 500 registered voters in Georgia’s 4th Congressional District [.]”

    That is CLEARLY a meaningless poll. If it were a poll of Democrats likely to vote PLUS Republicans who DID NOT vote in the primary but are eligible to vote in the runoff (and are likely to do so), then the numbers might have some merit.

  11. JasonW says:

    To DawgRocks comment…you know, thats what Handel should have campaigned on. That should have been her major criticism of Stephens. If she pulled the “He voted for Cynthia McKinney Highway” line, she could have avoided this runoff altogether 😉

Comments are closed.