McKinney’s Historical Trends

CQ Politics provides this analysis on Cynthia McKinney’s historical showings in runoffs. 

Six-term Democratic Rep. Cynthia A. McKinney may be able to round up the votes she needs to win her Aug. 8 runoff in Georgia’s 4th District — and avoid being ousted from Congress by Democratic primary voters for the second time in her stormy career.

But history does not appear to be on McKinney’s side, according to extensive research on runoff elections that just happens to have been conducted by one of the state’s leading political scientists, Charles S. Bullock III of the University of Georgia.

Read the rest of the story here

It’s amazing how such a horrible candidate/elected official can rally Republicans and Democrats alike around an alternative candidate, who happens to be a Democrat. 

I have resolved to the fact that McKinney and her 4th District is a political phenomenon that is just unexplainable with conventional political science.  I admittedly do not understand the voters in that district; however, I am convinced that there are plenty of people that could/would vote her out, if only they would show up to actually vote. 

Further, I am convinced that the people that vote for her simply do not have the mental capacity to understand just how rediculous she is. 

If she wins, they deserve her. 

36 comments

  1. memberg says:

    I disagree that McKinney’s success is inexplicable by conventional political science.

    1) She’s in a Democratic district.
    2) She generally has been able to run as an incumbent.
    3) She generally skates through the D primary.
    4) Her Republican opponents (e.g. Sunny Warren) have been nobodies.

    What’s the big shock that she’s been able to win?

  2. GAWire says:

    memberg, I certainly agree with that conventional analysis, but let’s take into consideration external factors:

    1) she’s the most contreversial Member/candidate in the Dem Party
    2) even the Black Congr Caucus has all but turned their backs on her
    3) the DCCC turned their backs on her a long time ago
    4) the Dem leadership denies she still exists
    5) she’s more liberal than Michael Moore and George Soros combined, and even in a relatively liberal district, we’re still a conservative, GOP dominated state
    6) she has had numerous legal situations, the latest of which we all know involves her assaulting a Capitol Police officer
    7) I agree its a liberal/Dem district, but that’s not to say everyone is Cynthia McKinney liberal – there are plenty of people in the 4th who think she is crazy
    8) she was voted out for being contreversial, but then voted back in (certainly not explained by conventional political thought)

    I think there are just so many explanations as to why she SHOULDN’T be re-elected, even considering the conventional factors, which are certainly accurate.

  3. buzzbrockway says:

    What confound me is that two years ago, McKinney faced a number of Democratic candidates, most with rather impressive electoral experience, and yet District 4 voters picked her. Why?

  4. She is VERY good at grassroots and GOTV. The people who vote for her are not “oh she is ok”… they are die-hard fanatics. I’m not sure how she has done that, but she is treated like a rockstar.

  5. GAWire says:

    >>”””they are die-hard fanatics””” This is typically true … which makes them crazier than most, and certainly doesn’t give them an excuse for their stupidity.

    I think the entire situation with McKinney boils down to a situation where it’s not supporters who are keeping her in office, it’s the lack of support to take action in getting her out of office.

    I don’t think her support is overwhelming … I just think there is a general lack of support for the situation as a whole; therefore, making her re-elected by default (i.e. people didn’t do a good enough job voting her out).

    Surely people aren’t this rediculously stupid (but I’ve been wrong before when giving people too much credit).

  6. memberg says:

    GAWire, the voters of Central and South Dekalb who continually put her into office are generally not the sort to look outside of their district/community for guidance on who to vote for. Is it that so unconvential?

    In other words, isn’t it just a bit of over-analysis to wonder why a strong Black woman kept getting re-elected in a Black, Democratic district, DCCC be damned?

    Plus, come on, your point 5 is just ridiculous (correct spelling). What does being a “GOP dominated state” have anything to do with who gets elected in/from Dekalb County? Please.

    And legal hiccups don’t automatically knock people out of office either (Adam Clayton Powell).

  7. GAWire says:

    mem, I don’t think we’re disagreeing to a great degree. Trust me, I am the ultimate “let the numbers explain everything” type of person, especially when it comes to individual districts. But, my point here is that the numbers have not been completely explained in GA 4th. Meaning, while blacks are certainly in the majority, polling responses have shown that the many blacks do not support McKinney. Further, many identify themselves as being much more conservative than McKinney indicates while dancing with uber-liberal Cindy Sheehan.

    So, the primary conclusion that I come to is that the blacks supporting McKinney (many by default) are the only ones that are really getting out to vote.

    All that is to say that someone like Hank Johnson could potentially have a chance IF he can get the “other” black Dem voters out to the polls.

    And, yes, I realize that legal hiccups don’t necessarily eliminate people from their election prospects; however, I do believe that McKinney’s situation is more unique than say Harold Ford or someone in a similar situation. McKinney didn’t have an affair (that we know of), she didn’t take political donations from defense contractors … she ASSAULTED a Capitol Police officer. The point: It doesn’t take a genious that someone who did this shouldn’t be in Congress, which says a great deal about her voters.

  8. ColinATL says:

    My understanding of the Cynthia phenomenon is that she has a couple things going for her:

    1. She’s very good in person, hugging, smiling, thanking. This goes a long way with volunteers and fanatics, creating that personal connection that is one of the lynchpins of a good politician (see e.g., Bill Clinton).

    2. She’s very good at playing the victim. Seriously. And many in the district feel victimized for a number of reasons. And not just African Americans feeling victimized by the white establishment. But even white liberals in the district feel victimized by living in a repressive conservative GOP state. They identify with Cynthia’s rebellious outspoken streak. The district probably has one of the biggest cores of educated liberals in the Southeast, especially with Emory & CDC.

    Of late, however, she’s done a few things that initially I didn’t think much of, but now that I consider it more, may have been part of her problem this time around.

    1. The punching-the-cop thing, the obvious choice. At first I didn’t think this would affect voters because it plays into her victim schtick, i.e., I’m a victim of racial profiling. But I think it left a bad taste, even though she avoided the indictment.

    2. Dissing homosexuals. Cynthia seemed to be pissed in 2002 when many prominent gays & lesbians came out for Denise Majette (and again in 2004, when they supported Cathy Woolard). Since then, she has backed down from her strong support for the gay community. I think she thinks we abandoned her and so she can abandon us. Even if she ultimately votes the right way, she’s making us work for it. Losing gay support can be brutal in the district, since DeKalb county has the 6th highest density of gay couples in the country, according to 2000 census data.

  9. Rick Day says:

    Cynthia McKinney is a thorn…in the butt of the status quo. It is amazing how much you all hate her. This indicate how well she is doing: a damn near perfect job.

    Next to Ron Paul, she is the most progressive member of Congress. She always asks the right questions and typically sides with the people with her voting record as opposed to the lock-step Left/Right blend running the country.

    As stated earlier, the fact she (and that blanket stereotype of the 4th distric voter, tsk!) gets so much vitriol from the ‘status quo’ represented on this blog she is the best person in Congress today.

    And I am not a Democrat OR a liberal. Like it or not, she is one of the bests politicians we have in Georgia. So sorry you do not ‘like’ her.

    You guys are inspiring. I think I will organize a fund raiser for her.

  10. GAWire says:

    Colin, you make a good point with the fact that Cynthia is good in person. On Primary Day, they showed footage of McKinney sign waving on a street corner with a doo-rag and a mesh hat over it, t-shirt and baggy jeans, etc … essentially in full form. She would have made Tupac proud. She also seemed to fit in perfectly with some of DeKalb’s best business enterprises …

  11. GAWire says:

    >>”””Like it or not, she is one of the bests politicians we have in Georgia.”””

    I seriously don’t know what to say

  12. I think this is one issue that both dems and republicans can agree on. McKinney is not good for Georgia. What has she accomplished other than embarassing the democratic party AND the entire state of Georgia?

  13. Riley says:

    Has anyone visited McKinney’s office in DC? Light blue pealing paint covers the walls, along with a nice poster of Bob Marley…yes the icon of jamacia and POT!
    Besides the office itself, the women that work inside I dont think got past anything but Ebonix 101 at spellman, but they have scattered there Burger King rappers across the office. McKinney is the most worthless member of the united states congress, everyone in district 4 and GA need to come together to get her out. She embarrased GA with that Capital Police assault stunt, and she needs to go. If I had a penny everytime McKinney pulled the race card I would be driving an Escalade.

  14. GAWire says:

    C’mon, Bob Marley is the voice of freedom everywhere. Right?

    “Singin, let’s get together and feel alright …”

  15. smilingwatcher says:

    As an outsider looking in, several of you have complained that McKinney has brought racial issues to the table, yet several of you have also said that the only reason 4th District voters support McKinney is because she and they are all black.
    Does this rationale you have just provided not prove McKinneys point that race politics still exist today?

    The voters of the 4th district have also been described as stupid on this blog, that is plain ignorance. I would think that these people are among the best informed voters in the country as they have continued to re-elect McKinney, despite her hounding by the press. To discount an entire district as stupid displays the level of discussion that sometimes appears on this blog.

    Georgias fourth district is the frontline in progressive politics at the moment and I think that the voters will once again make their voices heard nd once again prove that they know what is good for them and also prove that armchair pundits such as several of this sites membership that suck down media excretion are out of touch with ordinary voters.

    Is Cynthia Mckinney controversial? Only if you consider taking a stand against neo con control controversial. People only use the word controversial in connection with McKinney because it has been said so many times on Fox and in the Atlanta Journal Constitution.

    Her name is no longer Cynthia McKinney, her name is ‘controversial congresswoman Cynthia McKinney’, I think if you look through every recent article by the AJC they describe her as such. Now correct me if I’m wrong, but don’t people from georgia know who she is? So why do they have to use this phrase every time they refer to her? Is it perhaps to paint her in a bad light? To make her name synonymous with controversy?
    So no Cynthia McKinney is not controversial, the press is the real controversy.

  16. GAWire says:

    >>”””The voters of the 4th district have also been described as stupid on this blog, that is plain ignorance.”””

    Today’s math lesson:

    4th District voters + Electing McKinney = STUPID

  17. GAWire says:

    Also, I haven’t said the only reason McKinney has supporters is b/c they are black. In fact, I think there are a lot of anti-McKinney supporters in the 4th, both black and white, and I have said that in the past (above, I think).

    There are a lot of black people that do not support McKinney in the 4th (i.e. her opponent and his supporters), as well as many white residents. I will argue, however, that the majority of the white residents in the 4th just don’t vote, whether it’s due to apathy or the feeling that McKinney can’t be defeated.

    As to the idea of referring to Cynthia as “contreversial Congresswoman McKinney” … she earned that reputation/title. Sure, the media is often contreversial, but call me crazy for not thinking the media is being contreversial when reporting that a sitting Member of Congress assaulted a Capitol Police officer and using that situation to refer to her as “contreversial.”

    No, no … calling McKinney “contreversial” is not a conspiracy. It’s a simple explanation based on fact.

  18. Loren says:

    C’mon, Bob Marley is the voice of freedom everywhere. Right?

    Speaking of Bob Marley, Ms. McKinney holds a rather unusual belief regarding him: she seems to believe he (as well as Tupac and Jimi Hendrix) was murdered by the government. From this interview:

    “And so we started out with Paul Robeson because you know, of course, that his family sued the federal government because of MK Ultra and his murder, his death/murder. Paul Robeson didn’t die a natural death, Bob Marley didn’t, Tupac didn’t and Jimi Hendrix didn’t. And so what we wanted to do was to look at the life, the surveillance and the murder of these individuals.”

    Apparently, the fact that Mr. Marley died of cancer doesn’t sway her assessment of the facts, so she would seem to be alleging that the government murdered Bob Marley by giving him cancer.

    It may be the most bizarre of Ms. McKinney’s myriad conspiracy theories.

  19. GAWire says:

    Well, you know the gov’t gave him cancer. I’m sure of it. I’m also sure that McKinney can verify it, too

  20. smilingwatcher says:

    You may want to read up on Grand Jurys my friend. It just so happens that they did not indict McKinney. Now logically speaking the members of the grand jury would be in a far better position to judge whether McKinney assaulted anyone as they actually had the facts in front of them. You rely on the media reports to make up your mind. The media are not allowed into a grand jury, so how are they so sure of this incident when a grand jury, with the advantage of actual evidence, resfuse to take any action against McKinney.

    Everything just seems to come back to this capitol hill incident, is this all you have on her?
    Her progressive politics would scare many conservatives, god forbid she oppose the war in Iraq, the erosion of civil liberties (patriot act), and support medical care for less well-off constituents. Oh no what a radical!

    And to request details on FBI COINTELPRO surveillance of Dr.Martin Luther King, how dare she!
    And to support victims of Hurricane katrina, Oh No. Did you know that there is a deadline set for residents of New Orleans to rebuild their home by a certain date or risk the forfeiture of their land?

    I can’t say that I understand your hate or that you understand what Cynthia McKinney actually does.
    I write this stuff in reply to your blatant one sided coverage of the fourths race in the hope that reasonable people who read this can hear the reason behind McKinney and not just the rantings of an angry conservative.

    “If she wins, they deserve her.”
    They do indeed.

  21. smilingwatcher says:

    You keep thinking that Mr.Emanuel.
    I think you will see that I and Rick Day are not alone come the 8th.
    Blogs seem to be predominantly conservative around here, somebody has to interject a bit of reason from time to time.

    GAWires math lesson sums up the integrity of this blog, political name calling.

    I still haven’t heard anything positive about Hank Johnson from you guys, are you holding that in reserve?

  22. smilingwatcher says:

    Oh yes, one more thing. Would anybody care to address any of the issues I have raised?

  23. Jeff Emanuel says:

    SW, please do not confuse “posting ridiculous statements” for “raising issues.” I am sure that the 8th is full of people like you and Rick Day, or else McKinney would never have made it into office in the first place.

    “Interject[ing] reason”? Come again?

  24. Loren says:

    Did you know that there is a deadline set for residents of New Orleans to rebuild their home by a certain date or risk the forfeiture of their land?

    If this is the deadline you’re talking about, that’s a terribly misleading description.

    The ordinance (which passed 7-0) doesn’t require rebuilding; it requires that all damaged houses see “mold remediation, cleaning, gutting and properly securing the premises of all properties…in a manner so as to render the premises environmentally sound and not open to the public.” There are major environmental concerns when properties have decayed for a year.

    And it does not appear that the consequence is the forfeiture of one’s land. Rather, the city is threatening to repair or demolish any house not sufficiently improved and secured. A resident will still have his land, there just might not be a damaged and decaying house on it anymore.

  25. Riley says:

    Loren,
    McKinney tried to pass a bill that would investigate the death of Tupac becuase she thought the govt killed him. Maybe she should try to pass a bill investigating OJ Simpson.

  26. Loren says:

    She hasn’t merely “tried;” she’s trying right now. She actually introduced two bills in the 109th Congress (HR 4210 and HR 4968) for that purpose. Neither of which, incidentally, got even a single co-sponsor.

    It’s not just the release of Tupac’s records that she wants, either. She wants the National Archives to set up a formal “Tupac Amaru Shakur Records Collection,” in the style of the Records Collection that was created for the JFK assassination.

    Just for the record, here is a short list of people that McKinney has, at different times, suggested that the federal government was involved in murdering: Martin Luther King Jr., JFK, RFK, Tupac Shakur, Paul Robeson, Jimi Hendrix, Bob Marley, and (IIRC) the Notorious BIG. And while she has been careful not to speak the words from her own mouth, she invited featured speakers to her 9/11 hearings who argued, in one case, that the WTC was destroyed via a controlled demolition and, in another, that Dick Cheney was responsible for planning and orchestrating the 9/11 attacks.

  27. GAWire says:

    If Tupac doesn’t deserve a taxpayer-funded memorial, then I don’t know who does.

    Cynthia McKinney: Paving the way for gangstas, rappers, and all-around thugs everyday.

    What a quality leader. Shouldn’t she be up for a Role Model of the Year award or something?

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