Crossover Votes

Debbie sez:

There was crossover voting in the primary against Reed and I am not bringing it up to start the Cagle Reed thing again.

I’m not buying it. I am also not saying whether CC or RR is the better candidate/a good human/saviour of the GAGOP/voice of God etc.

What I am saying is that it is hard to measure crossover votes, but looking at the numbers for this race, it is hard to believe crossover votes alone beat RR.

Allow me to explain…

If we assume only GOPers voted for RR and CC managed to get crossover votes, CC got some 50, 000 Dems to crossover, meaning that they could not vote in their own bitter and tight race for Governor.

Even if we say that it was not all Democrats who voted for CC, that is a very concentrated effort to move 50, 000 voters.

Oh and let us not forget, many Dems knew, or felt, that RR wasn’t going to win the GE and would drag down the GOP ticket and thusly help the Democrats get elected. I have a feeling that they wanted that more than making sure RR wouldn’t be the nominee.

Therefore if any of them crossed over it would have been for RR, not against him.

And how can I forget that RR did have some ethical qualms in the hearts and minds of some. One can only assume that kept more than a few voters out of the RR camp.
So that is my take on Crossover Controversy ’06 (or CC ’06, whatever you want to call it :D).

I do think saying crossover votes is a way for supporters to say, “yeah our candidate was terrible” without actually saying as much.
And I am not supporting anyone (D or R) in this race yet. I don’t know if I will.

32 comments

  1. caroline says:

    Actually, I personally know several people who crossed over to vote for Cagle against Reed. I’m sure it happened. Whether it’s statistically significant is another issue. In some heavily Republican areas, there were local elections that would be decided in the GOP primary.

  2. Chris says:

    I voted in the Dem primary to vote against Cathy Cox, but I strongly considered voting R in order to vote against Reed. The reason I didn’t is twofold: I wasn’t thoroughly convinced that eliminating Reed was such a good idea for the moderates trying to regain their footing in state politics, and denying Cathy Cox to be elected to another office ever has been a driving force in my personal politics for several years. So my long held anti-Cox sentiments won out over my anti-Reed (anti-Christian extremist) sentiments.

    I agree with this post as well, the numbers of Dem votes far outweigh the number of GOP votes, even when you hold up the Dem Lt Gov race to the GOP Lt Gov race. Not alot of Dems crossing over based on that view.

  3. rugby_fan says:

    Thanks Caroline, I agree it is assinine to suggest that crossover votes were statistically significant votes.

    Chris, may I ask what such an innoffensive woman has done to inspire such a rabid dislike? Its seems like hating Saltines due to their flavor.

  4. GAWire says:

    This didn’t happen, at least not to any extent that it actually made a difference. If you think otherwise, you’re wrong. ‘Nuff said.

  5. Bull Moose says:

    Crossover votes DO NOT make up a 12% victory. You’re not making much sense in continuing with this dribble… Casey won an overwhelming victory and now it’s time to march forward to November.

    REMEMBER – Victory is truly in November when we win, not now. I know, I know, yes, I want to gloat and all that too, but I also want to win the actuall seat and help Casey and the rest of the team when where it counts in November…

    STAY FOCUSED on November 7, 2006…

  6. rugby_fan says:

    For the record, I never once thought crossover votes made a difference. I wanted to give objective, verifiable facts and numbers to the RR supporters so that they would not bring it up.

    Sorry I had to waste a post doing so.

  7. GOPeach says:

    Okay let’s do the math.

    Take Cagle’s numbers.

    Take away Georgia Equality.
    Take away The Flaggers
    Take away Reed’s base.

    What do you have to run against Hecht?

    I honestly do not know why Alec Poitevint
    did not take Casey and Ralph out to dinner
    and decide who could mobilze the GOP
    the best ( without pulling from the flaggers
    and the gays).

    No doubt Ralph could have ran with it best.
    They could have kept Casey on the Senate
    floor helping the majority move legislation.

    I will never understand why you all were so
    afraid of Ralph. That Lt. Gov. is nothing but
    a suit and a gavel. They have so little power.

    All I can say is God has a plan and we will all
    see what He reveals as the days go on.

  8. UGAMatthew says:

    If Ralph “could have ran with it best” and by that, I assume you mean best mobilize the GOP, then he would have won his election. He didn’t.

    And the reason Taylor was nothing but a suit and gavel was because he was Taylor; not because he was Lt. Gov. A republican Lt. Gov in a republican senate will be tremendously more effective and “powerful”, so to say, than Taylor ever was.

  9. debbie0040 says:

    I never said it was crossover votes that cost Ralph the victory. It was the crossover, the extremely nasty campaign Cagle ran and the negative press.There was however a significant number. Do the math yourselves. Compare the numbers in high Dem areas like Dekalb. Check it out at the Secretary of State’s Web site. In Dekalb there was alot of GOP crossover to get rid of McKinney and there was still a lot of GOP primary voters.

    If you guys say there was no significant crossover then Cagle does not have anything to worry about now does he?

  10. debbie0040 says:

    If you want to continue to look at the general with rose colored glasses that is up to you.

    I choose not to. The GOP could face real trouble in November. Look at the poll numbers of voters that identify themselves as GOP nationwide. Look at Bush’s approval numbers.

    http://www.rasmussenreports.com/

    I have spoken to dozens of Reed supporters in the past few days and they will not vote for Cagle. They will either sit out the election or just not vote for Lt. Governor. I urged them to support the nominee but that is not going to happen. All the anti Reed rhetoric is just adding fuel to the fire.

    The bad mood is not just involving the Cagle-Reed race. Conservatives are ticked off with Bush and the illegal immigration issue.
    The mood out there is similar to Barnes changing the flag.

  11. Brian from Ellijay says:

    Cagle had crossover votes, they were all members of the Christian Coalition. Cagle would not have won by the margin he did without a significant vote from the Christian Conservatives around the State.

  12. JP says:

    “All the anti Reed rhetoric is just adding fuel to the fire.”

    Debbie, your party should have kept such a scandal-tainted candidate from running, it’s not like this is some surprise.

  13. GA. republican says:

    Debbie,

    Please shut up, its over. Thats what you get for backing someone who has no character or integrity. The Reed people are just mad because their little cult leader named Ralph Reed finally had the truth come out and it hurts. Its not negative if its true, and yes Debbie despite what your leader tells you it is true. So if you don’t want to campaign for Cagle thats fine just get out of the way. The primary is over and we have work to do.

  14. Decaturguy says:

    The belief that crossover votes had any impact on the Reed-Cagle race is preposterous. Was there some crossover vote? Yes, of course, as there is in any primary. But was it statistically significant? Hell no. Cagle won by almost 50,000 votes!

    Lets take Debbie’s point of such a “high” Dekalb Republican turnout. In Dekalb only 13,754 voters participated in the GOP Primary in the Lt. Governor race, as opposed to 71,357 Dekalb voters participating in the Democratic Party primary. That is the same 16% of voters in Dekalb that voted in the GOP Primary vs. the Democratic primary in 2004.

    Of Dekalb GOP primary voters this year, 4,934 voted for Reed (or 36%). So that leaves 8,820 Dekalb votes for Cagle (or 64%).

    So even if we assume that Dekalb Republicans would have voted in the same proportion to the rest of the state for Cagle at 56% (which would not be true since Dekalb Republicans are more moderate than the rest of the state by a lot), that is only 1,100 votes more for Cagle.

    So Cagle would have only gotten 55.7% of the vote vs. 56.1%. Big deal.

  15. Broty says:

    I have a question:

    Why did the polls before the election show this race to be so close? Was it just bad polling? Did all the undecideds swing Cagle’s way on their way to the polls? We’re people not being honest about their support for Reed? Did the candidate’s internal polls show this wide a victory for Cagle?

    That’s actually a few questions. And to stay on topic: Crossover votes did not win this election for Cagle. It was a clean Republican victory.

  16. Demonbeck says:

    I know I have said this several times…

    A lot of people, out of fear of retribution, were saying they supported Reed publicly and supported Cagle privately.

    This is not a knock on Reed, but a knock on some of Reed’s supporters. (Not necessarily Reed’s supporters on PP – Debbie, GOPeach, Tobin, Philly etc.) Many of whom have been party activists for years and have risen to positions of power within the GOP. For example:In Effingham County, the GOP elected officials actively and publicly worked against Cagle as did officials in Cobb, Chatham and elsewhere.

  17. eem2006 says:

    Debbie and GOPeach, unfortunately you have no credibility left. Your posts are STILL laughable.

    RR had no effort, no grassroots army. I was up all night Sunday and Monday and saw a total of 10 RR signs in Fulton County. The only sign wavers were those Teen Pact kids? RR’s staff wasn’t even working past dinner time.

    Casey Cagle and his team kicked ass. Period. And they will do it again in November.

    My predicition – RR lives in Virginia by Novemer.

    QUIT being sore losers and lets talk about winning in November.

  18. The Busdriver says:

    Hey Broty, you bring up a good question about polling.

    It was Matt Towery’s numbers that proved so comical, causing lots of people to wonder what happened on election day.

    A friend on the Cagle campaign told me that their numbers showed a much larger spread than what Towery was showing, and that their final numbers came very close to the final results. Towery had profoundly different numbers every other day. What a joke.

    Matt, Tom Wolfe called and he wants his wardrobe back.

  19. dagny says:

    I spoke with a very prominent gay/lesbian citizen who absolutely confirmed that the gay community came out in droves to defeat Ralph. If you don’t buy this you are just ignoring inconvenient facts.

  20. dagny says:

    And there is NO question that the R’s are going to have trouble in November, and if you think otherwise; you are again – ignoring inconvenient facts.

  21. Broty says:

    Dagny,

    Let’s say there was a large crossover vote from the gay community (I have no idea and I take your word) – do you think that’s what put Cagle over the top?

    Is there a large gay/lesbian voting block outside of metro Atlanta? Cagle seemed to do well throughout all of GA. I don’t see any large irregularities that suggest something drastic altered the results of this election.

  22. kspencer says:

    If there WAS crossover, the Republicans in this state should be very worried. Actually, they should be a bit concerned anyway. Just about every statewide race had more total Dem votes than GOP votes for the respective primaries. (I think it was ALL the statewide races, but I may have misread or mis-added one or two.) If there was crossover, the margin of people turning out to vote on each side is even worse than this indicates.

    Do I think there was low turnout? Yes. On both sides. But Reed v Cagle was supposed to be a big GOTV of their respective bases, while the Cox v Taylor races weren’t getting that much push. (Oh, they were, but it wasn’t as LOUD as the RR-CC drum.)

    For what it’s worth, I don’t think there was any significant crossover. It’s not as bad as it could be for the GOP of Georgia.

    Kirk

  23. Decaturguy says:

    “I spoke with a very prominent gay/lesbian citizen who absolutely confirmed that the gay community came out in droves to defeat Ralph. If you don’t buy this you are just ignoring inconvenient facts.”

    So a handful of gay people, some prominent and some not, crossed over to vote for Cagle. I’m not quesioning that. But I would put the over/under at about 500 max. Don’t forget that 25% of gays consider themselves Republicans and would vote in the Republican Primary anyway.

    We’ll take a look at the precinct by precinct data when that comes out. But I’m going to bet you’re not going to see much of a difference in GOP primary participation heavily gay precincts than normal.

    Good point, KSencer. If there was so much crossover of Dems to the GOP primary that it caused Cagle to win, the Republican Party is in serious trouble, since that would have meant about 100,000 more Democrats participated in the primary this year than did Republicans. But I don’t think that’s the case.

  24. GOPeach says:

    eem2006 – You are silly!

    And you think you have credibilty????
    Go ahead , let’s see all your credintials.
    I

  25. Mad Dog says:

    I crossed over for Reed.

    It won’t get me out of Hell for eternity, but WTF.

    So gay and lesbians are the majority voting block in Georgia’s primaries?

    If you’re afraid of the gays, just say so. But, please! Stop giving them more power than GAWD.

  26. GOPeach says:

    Mad Dog-

    I am glad that you had a brain & superman eyes-
    Able to see through the thick walls of moderate
    malice and blood thristy bullies.

    WTF ! Walking in Truth & Faith … right? 🙂

  27. Maurice Atkinson says:

    Broty, you questioned the polls. We said our polling was showing us up 11 points. He won by nearly 13. We also said the undecideds were steadily moving to Casey. This trend started in February and as the election neared it narrowed. Ralph’s negatives remained high in all polls.

    The same dynamic that put Isakson in the US Senate is the same dynamic that doomed Ralph. The real estate community had spent several million dollars from January to June sending mailers, radio and television spots thanking Johnny for his service. When the election neared and Johnny’s ads ran they were effective. People were comfortable and remembered his name.

    It was impossible for Ralph to win. There was more than a year of constant negative press from all corners, conservative and liberal. At times it almost semed like the scandal of the week. That constant revelation of his alliances did not portray him in a positive light. When Cagles ads hit, they were effective. When people went to the polling booth most were not comfortable in voting for him, and didn’t.

    In addition to this, Cagle’s team was on a mission. In less than a year they built a solid ground force. Ralph underestimated this big time. While Ralph had a few grassroots meetings, they were poorly attended. Cagle had meetings all over the state and this little known Senator was getting a solid reception.

    Cagle had a premiere team. They effectively used technology and were receptive to the comments from the field. The targeted their energies in the key areas.

    Crossover votes did not have a major effect. It just didn’t.

    In January, Cagle’s team was hugely represented at the Christian Coalition event. This was Ralph’s stomping ground.

    And finally, you cannot minimize the 20 plus Senator’s who openly asked for him to pull out of the race, and the massive amount of elected officials that were vocal for Cagle.

    He simply beat Ralph on all fronts.

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