Election Thoughts and November Predictions

First, a very hearty “job well done” to the Peach Pundits who made sure PP was on top of things last night.

The most important aspect of last night, RR. Unfortunately for the Democrats, with RR goes their chance of being neck and neck with the GOP. RR would give every Dem in Georgia a chance to raise funds nationally (which would be the only way to be competitve), and I do believe RR would have a noticable, albeit slight drag on the GOP ballot.

A bright spot for the Dems is that they did select who is far and away their best candidate for Gov. CC had potential but she showed no ability to campaign. She made terrible statements, played prevent defense, and seemed totally inept at the debates. MT has already gone through two tough statewide races and he knows what to do. He will be able to rally the old Democrats who are trending Republican behind him.

That being said, it is going to be tough, VERY TOUGH for the Democrats to convince Georgians that a new Governor is needed. SP has not offended anyone, and he hasn’t done anything wrong. If anyone can make it difficult, it will be MT. Winner will take 51 or 52ish%. Too close to call.

The GOP will no doubt pick up the Lt Governor seat if and only if, RR supporters do not stay home en masse come November. I have my doubts that GOPers are willing to not support their nominee especially considering how much of a token victory Lt Gov would be.

Martin and Hecht are losers plain and simple.That makes me think even more that the GOP would be unwilling to give them the seat. But once again, Repubs must get out for CC. More Dems voted in the respective primary than GOP. If RR people GOTV for CC: 66% for CC. If not, 52% for Dems.

(Can we all take a second and admit Lt Gov is a sinecure? Can we then all say its not worth all the malice that has been spit out by both CC and RR?)

Handel will win and easily defeat Hicks. Seriously, how did Shyam (and SH) do so poorly? SR had the money, the charisma, the institutions, it makes no sense.

Black will lose to Tommy. Sorry Mr Black. If ever there was a year TI could lose, its this one. Just don’t see it happening. Beating TI would complete the exorcism of Dems from state government so I expect to see the GAGOP doing a lot to help out Black.

Kathy Cox beat Majette. Either way we will have sekund rait edukayshun in GA.

C’MON HANK JOHNSON! ‘Nuff said. Plus he has a good campaign song.

Feel free to take me to task on any of these predictions, I look forward to the debate!

35 comments

  1. ugadog says:

    I love that Republicans have deluded themselves into thinking that Perdue is going to win. Keep thinking that. “Very tough that a new Governor is needed.” All we have to do is convince them that a Governor is needed. Perdue is clay that has done nothing to define himself and he will be molded into whatever Taylor wants him to be.

  2. Michael C says:

    The Flaggers are still upset with Sonny. They will have less impact this time around though. MT will be formidable, but e still reminds me of a used car salesman. The GOP can hold back though and think we have this in the bag.

  3. rugby_fan says:

    Hey Michael,

    Thanks for the comment. I would have to say that you can only count out MT at your own risk. If you would like to do that fine. I don’t think anyone in SP’s team is doing that. I don’t think flaggers will make a ripple.

  4. Demonbeck says:

    Don’t EVER count MT out of an election. Heck, don’t EVER count anyone out of an election.

  5. GAWire says:

    Flaggers won’t make a ripple. Taylor won’t win. Perdue will win. Simple as that, folks.

    Rugby, you’re analysis is on target. Kemp is toast. Black will be a tough fight against Tommy. Handel has it. Casey has it against “comb-over” Jimmy (fyi, I stole that comb-over line from either erick or jeff).

    High GOP retention. Good GOP sweep of what we were lacking, maybe with the exception of Ag.

    Cynthia will return to DC, where she can proceed to be a menace to police officers there. We are all now dumber for having watched Cynthia and Cindy Sheehan dancing together.

  6. rugby_fan says:

    We are all now dumber for having watched Cynthia and Cindy Sheehan dancing together. HAH!

    GaGOP doesn’t want CM out because she can raise the party some serious dough.

    “Rugby, you’re analysis is on target” wow. thanks. seriously.

  7. Michael C says:

    Interesting note from Cobb County sherriff Neil Warren’s Corn Boil last week. Tommy Irvin was in attendance. Jokingly he teased a Gary Black supporter asking who was Gary Black and had anybody ever heard of him. I think he will definitely know his name soon enough.

    I like Cynthia in DC. She makes the Dems look bad. I feel sorry for the people in the 4th district though.

  8. funkymonkey says:

    i beg to differ about TI, i think black can pull it off. TI is getting old an won’t be able to hold like strom did.

  9. waterboy says:

    Place your bets boys! Gary Black will finish off the primary with a great deal of momentum and those SOWEGA folks that didn’t get to support him in the primary (due to lical elections) will be there in full force in November. Gary Black will win the whole ball of wax – and I’ll be happy to take your money on that!

  10. StevePerkins says:

    Election thoughts? After a couple months of nonsense about flag burning and gay marriage, I was joking that we’ll spend the summer listing to fuss over contraception, Terri Schiavo, and rap lyrics. Oops… I forgot all about the pledge of allegiance!

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060719/ap_on_go_co/pledge_protection_4

    Seriously, how can any LITERATE, high-school graduate out there be driven to the polls by this crap? This is a pretty conservative-leaning blog, and most folks here groan and complain over this kind of grandstanding. “Energizing the base” or not, the Republicans are overselling this crap and setting themselves up for a backlash.

  11. rugby_fan says:

    I think you will find this fall that many of the GOP’s panderings to get people to the polls will backfire.

  12. Philly says:

    Gay Georgians Real Winners in Primary Elections

    Politics of gay bashing and fear losing their appeal

    July 19, 2006, Atlanta, Georgia – Support for equality for Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual and Transgender (LGBT) Georgians gained momentum last night as the results were announced for both Republican and Democratic Primaries.

    “Those candidates who threw us and our families under the bus for their own benefit were resoundingly defeated, while those who stood by us survived,

  13. nfire says:

    Philly refuses to give up. As somebody else said earlier, YOU LOSE, TAKE OFF YOUR STICKER AND GO HOME.

  14. Bull Moose says:

    Rugby, I disagree with your very very colored view of the upcoming November elections, and especially your view of the Lt. Governor’s office.

    As President of the Senate, the Lt. Governor has a very important role in not only setting the tone of discussion in the legislative chamber, but also in making committee appointments, and by having the power of the bully pulpit in which to turn focus onto important issues. We need to get behind Casey Cagle and work hard to ensure his victory in November.

    I think that Kemp will end up winning the run-off for Ag Commissioner and will go on to beat Tommy Irvin in the fall.

    Hanel will beat Stephens and will be the nominee in the fall.

    Mark Taylor versus Sonny Perdue is going to be a tough and interesting race. This is going to be a very hard race for both sides. It should be interesting to watch…

  15. waterboy says:

    Moose is delusional on this Kemp thing. He only won a handful of counties and a whopping 27% of the total vote. Better check the math Moose-boy. Gary Black will roll over Kemp, again, in August and plow over Irvin come November. Accept it and get on board….it’s gonna be a great ride!

  16. Elizabeth says:

    STEVE SINTON THE NEW GEORGIA UP AND COMING POLITICAL FORCE.

    Come November, Tom Price will most likely find himself in the same place as Ralph Reed. Price has a record he cannot run from. He took dirty money from Tom Delay, and claims Delay donated to him because he was conforming to “his” way of thinking. Come on!

    As a Republican, I am not pleased with our elected officials. I will vote mostly Republican, however, count on this one – I will cross over and vote for Sinton. He has common sense and ethical values. I’m impressed with this guy. He took the shine right off Tom Price at the AARP forum in Cobb County in July

  17. Elizabeth says:

    One last thing, did Sonny really take $1 billion out of education – after we are already 49th? I cannot believe that accusation from Taylor and Cox. Is it true?

  18. debbie0040 says:

    Gary Black will win. Most Reed supporters will not vote for a state senator for either of the runoff seats.

  19. Bull Moose says:

    Debbie, you won’t give it a rest. You don’t want everyone to attack Reed then STOP using him as a reference.

    The Greer and Strickland supporters will back Kemp and he’ll win this runoff.

  20. Bull Moose says:

    Back to Perdue/Taylor…

    I really think it’s going to be a tough race. My mom says that Mark Taylor has a very very captivating personality and when she met him she thought he had a presence, albeit a very large presence, but hey, he’s the big guy.

    His interview on the TV last night after declaring victory was pretty good… I’ve almost got an impersonation of him down… I just need to hear his voice a bit more…

  21. BulldawgGirl says:

    I will be supporting Black for AgCom in the runoff. I think that he will be able to defeat Irvin in Novemeber. I will also be supporting Perdue. I hope that he can pull off a decisive win for the GOP.

  22. One thing I don’t understand is, why is their such support for Perdue when he really hasn’t done much? I feel like his campaign slogan is trying to repeat something over and over until people start thinking it’s true.

  23. GOPeach says:

    I kept wondering why so many Cagle signs were placed
    beside Confederate Flags along the roadside

    Just found out that Cagle cut a deal with the flaggers!
    Wow! That should be interesting.

    I sure hope he can bring the gays, flaggers, and all
    the conservative Christians out to elect him in
    November. That could be more difficult than any
    of us realize.

  24. GOPeach says:

    Kimberly Smith-

    Are you kidding????

    This is what Perdue has done:

    In Education:

    Sonny protected Lottery funds for HOPE and Pre-K.
    Sonny increased classroom discipline by revoking driver’s licenses of misbehaving teens.
    Sonny reduced class sizes and built more classrooms.

    On Safety:
    Sonny cracked down on the manufacturing and sale of the dangerous drug meth.
    Sonny protected children from drug addicts, kidnappers, and reckless caregivers.
    Sonny made criminals pay victims for damages and losses.

    On Legal Issues:
    Sonny protected Georgians’ private property rights.
    Sonny increased efficiency in state government.
    Sonny strengthened citizenship verification requirements.

    To learn more see:
    http://www.votesonny.com/default.asp?pt=i&doc=issues

  25. BahamaBoy says:

    I thought everone here could use a good laugh. Try this one on:

    Noah Builds an Ark

    And the Lord spoke to Noah and said,

    “In one year, I am going to make it rain and cover the whole Earth with water until all flesh is destroyed. But I want you to save the righteous people and two of every kind of living thing on the earth. therefore, I am commanding you to build an Ark.”

    In a flash of lightning, God delivered the specifications for an Ark.

    In fear and trembling, Noah took the plans and agreed to build the Ark.

    “Remember” said the Lord, “You must complete the Ark and bring everything aboard in one year.”

    Exactly one year later, fierce storm clouds covered the earth and all the seas of the earth went into a tumult.

    The Lord saw that Noah was sitting in his front yard weeping.

    “Noah,” He shouted. “Where is the Ark?”

    “Lord, please forgive me!” cried Noah. “I did my best, but there were big problems. First, I had to get a permit for construction and your plans did not meet the codes. I had to hire an engineering firm and redraw the plans. Then I got into a fight with OSHA over whether or not the Ark needed a fire sprinkler system and flotation devices.

    “Then my neighbor objected, claiming I was violating zoning ordinances by building the Ark in my front yard, so I had to get a variance from the city planning commission.

    “Then I had problems getting enough wood for the Ark, because there was a ban on cutting trees to protect the Spotted Owl. I finally convinced the U.S. Forest Service that I needed the wood to save the owls However, the Fish and Wildlife Service won’t let me catch any owls. So, no owls.

    “The carpenters formed a union and went out on strike. I had to negotiate a settlement with the National Labor Relations Board before anyone would pick up a saw or a hammer. Now I have 16 carpenters on the Ark, but still no owls.

    “When I started rounding up the other animals, I got sued by an animal rights group. They objected to me only taking two of each kind aboard. Just when I got the suit dismissed, the EPA notified me that I could not complete the Ark without filing an environmental impact statement on your proposed flood. They didn’t take very kindly to the idea that they had no jurisdiction over the conduct of the Creator of the universe.

    “Then the Army Engineers demanded a map of the proposed new flood plain. I sent them a map.

    “Right now, I am trying to resolve a complaint filed with the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission that I am practicing discrimination by not taking godless, unbelieving people aboard.

    “The IRS has seized my assets, claiming that I’m building the Ark in preparation to flee the country to avoid paying taxes.

    “I just got a notice from the state that I owe them some kind of user tax and failed to register the Ark as a “recreational watercraft.

    “Finally, the ACLU got the courts to issue an injunction against further construction of the Ark, saying that since God is flooding the earth, it is a religious event and therefore unconstitutional. I really don’t think I can finish the Ark for another five or six years!” Noah wailed.

    The sky began to clear, the sun began to shine and the seas began to calm. A rainbow arched across the sky.

    Noah looked up hopefully. “You mean You are not going to destroy the earth, Lord?”

    “No,” said the Lord sadly. “I don’t have to. The government already has.”

  26. JasonW says:

    I’m not convinced, as many of you are, that Cynthia will win her runoff. Every political analyst will tell you that an Incumbent forced into a runoff, will likely lose. I know both Republicans and Democrats in Dekalb and the consensus that i’m getting is that Cynthia’s time is done. While I think Hank will win (a few points for him being a fair tax supporter), the best candidate far and away is Catherine Davis, unfortunately, her campaign is doomed, although she is a perinneal candidate with lots of GOP money (upwards of 500,000 dollars) going to her campaign in the last election. But other than that, I think the predictions are pretty much right on. Sonny will win (Will the flaggers really support someone who fought as hard as Mark Taylor did?), Handel will defeat Majette, I think Black will eak out a win in the ag race, the one race that concerns me is the Attorney General’s race. I have serious doubts that Perry McGuire will unseat Thurbert Baker in the General Election. It simply hasn’t been focused on enough for people to vote for the relatively unknown candidate over a staple in Georgia politics.

  27. cagle2006 says:

    GOPeach,
    Mark Taylor created the education lottery and the HOPE Scholarship
    Mark Taylor abolished the sales tax on groceries which is the largest tax cut in history
    Mark Taylor passed a bill that created pre-k for every Georgia child
    Mark Taylor passed 2 strikes your out the strictest law in the nation dealing with violent crimes
    I may support Casey Cagle, but I support Mark Taylor for Governor.

  28. UnknownTruths says:

    In the November elections lets remember to vote for Perry McGuire…as I have read this blog I have not seen much mentioned about the Attorney Generals race. McGuire is facing Baker in the November election…both candidates ran unopposed in the July 18 election.

    Perry McGuire will be in Savannah this Monday at the Mulberry Inn from 5 to 7 pm. Anyone down here please stop by. http://www.perrymcguire.com We need a change in the AG office and I believe Perry is just the man to lead the way.

    Have a great Sunday all.

  29. debbie0040 says:

    Voting for Mark Taylor is like voting for Roy Barnes and a return to the good old boy Democratic Government.

  30. GOPeach says:

    Debbie’s is 100%. spot on.

    Having a Dem Governor would be a bad idea. That would
    put Georgia in the poor house sure enough.

    Cagle 2006 –

    To elect Mark Taylor is to elect BIG GOVERNMENT.
    The BIG FAT GUY is for BIG FAT GOVERNMENT!

    Not to be mean – he is the one who says that.
    I am just saying what he says.

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