Why I Think There Will NOT be a Runoff for Dem Gov. Nominee

The common thought seems to be that gays will cast protest votes in the Democratic Primary.
Let’s stop and consider the facts here. First off, the latest polls show MT with at least 50% of the vote. That might have changed after the debates but I doubt it.

Second, we have to consider how many votes there are in the gay community.

The answer is not many.

Statistics say that 3-10% of the population in America is gay. Georgia has population of 8.186 million. If we assume that 10% of that number is gay, that means there are more than 800, 000 gay people in Georgia. That is more than the population of Atlanta city limits.

But let’s work with that number. Should we assume that half of those 800, 000 are registered to vote, will vote, and would have voted Democrat (even though nation wide, 25% of the gay vote in 04 went to Bush), that means

A) Gay people would–normally–make up almost the entire Democratic Primary vote,
B) They would somehow manage to exceed every national and statewide statistic for voting registration and turn out.

I just do not see any of that happening. There are huge underlying assumptions about the gay vote that just do not seem to make any sense to any statistics.

Moreover, I spoke to some elected Republicans and every one said MT was going to get the nomination, and CCox didn’t stand a chance against SP. I even heard as big a victory as 15% for MT against CC.
I think in November it will be about 51-48%, not predicting a winner. It will be too close. MT will have a very tough job convincing Georgians to get rid of SP because he hasn’t offended anyone. I do think MT is a good enough campaigner to make it hard for SP.

5 comments

  1. LINDA says:

    The Republicans that are saying that MT will win, and that CC does not stand a chance againt SP are doing so with a bit of wishful thinking and with fingers crossed. You need to understand the statistics of the Democrat voters, and figure that 34% of the population in Georgia is black and they vote close to 98% Democrat. Of that percentage of black Democrats, I would estimate that 65% of them are women. Based upon persinal experience, the majority of them will vote for a woman for Governor before a man, just as long as the candidates are Democrat. This holds true for white Democrat women, too.

    Cathy Cox is a very big threat to Governor Perdue this November, and the insiders are pushing polls to keep her suppressed. The independent women voters will turn out to vote for Cathy Cox in November. I may be wrong, but this is my gut feeling.

  2. Demonbeck says:

    Erick,

    Let’s look at it another way….

    We should expect around 1 million people (or less) to vote in the primary. 3-10% of that number is 30,000 – 100,000. Take 25% away from that (The percentage who voted for Bush) and you have 22,500 – 75,000 Democratic Voters. At the most, the gay Democratic voting bloc will represent 75,000 voters. If they all go to one candidate, then yes, they can sway an election, but as we have seen, they are fractured – between voting for the two Dem Gov candidates and against the Christian Coalition through Ralph Reed. Any homosexual who votes for RR has some serious self-loathing issues (and that’s not uncommon)

    The only way they could really make a dent in this election is in the Republican LG race.

  3. Decaturguy says:

    You are assuming that the only disaffected Democrats who would vote for one of the minor candidates are gay people. Wrong! I don’t talk to too many Democrats these days who are real happy with either candidate.

    But, even if you assume that gays make up 10% of the Democratic Primary vote, while it may be a minority, it could certainly make a big difference in a close election.

  4. Demonbeck says:

    For argument’s sake I disregarded the other Dem Gov candidates much like most voters will tomorrow. When you go to the track you bet on a horse that’s got a chance to win, not one that looks pretty.

  5. GaMongrel says:

    Don’t limit the ‘gay’ vote to just practicing gays. It’s bigger than that.

    The ‘gay’ vote includes their family members and friends. I’ve got friends whose parents are gay. My friends tend to vote on issues as if they were gay themselves due to their familial or close emotional ties with a gay person.

    It’s probably similar for parents of gay children though likely not as much due to the stereotypical family dynamics and for people who have close friends who are gay.

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