The common thought seems to be that gays will cast protest votes in the Democratic Primary.
Let’s stop and consider the facts here. First off, the latest polls show MT with at least 50% of the vote. That might have changed after the debates but I doubt it.
Second, we have to consider how many votes there are in the gay community.
The answer is not many.
Statistics say that 3-10% of the population in America is gay. Georgia has population of 8.186 million. If we assume that 10% of that number is gay, that means there are more than 800, 000 gay people in Georgia. That is more than the population of Atlanta city limits.
But let’s work with that number. Should we assume that half of those 800, 000 are registered to vote, will vote, and would have voted Democrat (even though nation wide, 25% of the gay vote in 04 went to Bush), that means
A) Gay people would–normally–make up almost the entire Democratic Primary vote,
B) They would somehow manage to exceed every national and statewide statistic for voting registration and turn out.
I just do not see any of that happening. There are huge underlying assumptions about the gay vote that just do not seem to make any sense to any statistics.
Moreover, I spoke to some elected Republicans and every one said MT was going to get the nomination, and CCox didn’t stand a chance against SP. I even heard as big a victory as 15% for MT against CC.
I think in November it will be about 51-48%, not predicting a winner. It will be too close. MT will have a very tough job convincing Georgians to get rid of SP because he hasn’t offended anyone. I do think MT is a good enough campaigner to make it hard for SP.