What happens after the primaries?

Okay, let’s start to look past Tuesday…  What happens after the primaries? 

I’ll give you my opinion and then open it up for discussion as to what you think happens. 

First, the Republicans.  If Ralph Reed is somehow able to push turnout so low that he is able to squeak out a victory, I personally think the GOP has a serious anchor going into the fall elections.  I don’t know how the Governor is able to run with Reed on the ticket.  I don’t know how honest people can cast a vote for Ralph Reed.  If Cagle wins, he’s well positioned to unite the GOP and be an asset to the Governor and the entire Republican team.  This race has been rather negative and now I’m hearing rumors of threats to Cagle supporters from Reed people. 

Further down the ballot, I feel the same about the race for Secretary of State.  Karen Handel is by far the better qualified candidate and a boost rather than a draw down on the Republican team. 

In the Agriculture Commissioner’s race, while I’m solidly behind Kemp, I don’t know if the dynamics are as volatile as they are in the other races.  I think that Kemp has the better chance to beat Irvin in the fall. 

Now the Democrats.  I’m not sure who will pull out a win in any of these races.  Democrats though have always been better than Republicans in uniting behind the victor.  I’m sure that every Democrat running though is hoping for a Reed win.  I think whether it’s Cathy or Mark, a Reed win on the GOP side ads 10-15 points to the Democratic nominee. 

As for the Lt. Governor’s race, there again, I think it depends on who Republican nominate.  Jim Martin is by far the better qualified and more sincere Democratic candidate, but will that translate into a win? 

In terms of there efforts in the Secretary of State’s race, while some have seen movement in this race, I think Sham Reddy (may have misspelled) looks strong. 

Again, I think for the Democrats, they will be reacting to who the Republican nominate.  If you put Reed on the Republican team, with the baggage that he has and the possibilities of ongoing investigations into his business dealings, Democrats will have an edge. 

Those are just my thoughts… What say you? 

13 comments

  1. MorganCoGOP says:

    I totally agree. I believe if Reed somehow wins tomorrow then he will not only hurt the party, but he will hurt Sonny and every other Republican on the ballot in November. If he thinks that Cagle has been tough on him then just wait until the Dems start the attack. If Reed wins he aint seen nothing yet.

  2. techtrack says:

    after the primaries we get together to re-elect sonny and ensure that all of the constitutional officers are republican for the first time in over 130 years. and we take the last psc seat. in fulton we kick pitts out of office and have the first republican majority on the fulton county commission.

  3. Bull Moose says:

    um, techtrack, Reed wins and we might as put the for sale sign up – Republican Values For Sale.

  4. John Silage Jr. says:

    I agree Bull with your statements except the one about Ag Commissioner. Brian doesn’t have the rural appeal to convience voters down in South Georgia to vote against Irvin. They in november is getting former Irvin supporters in rural areas to switch over to the GOP nominee. The farmers want a change, but it has to be from someone they feel comfortable with and that is not Kemp.

  5. UGAMatthew says:

    John,
    I’m with you on your exception. In addition to your concern, I don’t think Kemp is as excitable as a candidate compared to Black, maybe Greer…maybe.

    Black is the asset to party in this race, if your concerned with total GOP victory. He has the network to uproot Irvin. Kemp just doesn’t have his finger on the ag. pulse statedwide. Black has the energy and the force to add to the party in the fall, I just don’t see that same vigor from Kemp’s camp.

  6. jackson says:

    This is not a 100% Republican state. If you forget, even with our GOP revolution, we still lost SOS, LG, Labor, AG, and Ag.

    If Ralph Reed wins, he is the only one that will lose, guaranteed. If folks think Cagle was brutal, wait until democrats suppress christians and destroy Reed with independents and moderate. The marianas? Independents dont care that it was a Bill Clinton thing. Channel One? China? All that stuff is going to piss off the other side and suppress christians. And that isnt even talking about the turnout against Reed among african-americans when they hear about his slimy plan to mortgage black pastors.

    I do think that Perry and Brent will have tougher than expected races. But with Reed on the ticket, everyone is going to hurt. I mean, how can Sonny run on ethics when his running mate would be Ralph Reed?

  7. Jack S says:

    You black guys live in a dream world. Gary is as exciting as drying paint.

    Voters won’t vote for a lobbyist over an incumbent. The contrast isn’t there. But it doesn’t matter cause kemps going to kill black in the runoff.

  8. Demonbeck says:

    Why does it always have to be a racial thing with you Jack S? Why can’t you see past the color of a person’s skin?

  9. Dawgfan says:

    I think Bull’s got it pretty right. There is no way you can honestly say Reed won’t be a drag on the ticket. I don’t know what he really did with the casinos, but I do know what he should have done is said “No Thanks I can’t be involved in that”.

    As for the Ag race I think there’s no use in trying to “out Farmer” Irvin Both Kemp and Black will get the same farmer vote that any other Repub in that slot will get more or less. The way to win that seat is to run as a consumer advocate, and spend your time and money on the suburban voter. That’s the race Brian is running, and I think he’ll be an easier sale to those voters.

  10. John Silage Jr. says:

    Well, kemp may win, but I have not heard one person down here in Southwest Georgia even mention Kemp’s name. I am in contact with the ag community frequently and most of them don’t even know who kemp is-they are all Gary supporters. Everyone know that metro atl will decide this primary race, but the General will be won in south Georgia because most of the suburban areas will vote simply for the R. If Kemp wins tommy will be re-elected because I don’t think the farmers will support Kemp—Gary has their trust and Kemp simply doesn’t. That’s the truth.

  11. foray says:

    The same people who have put Tommy in office for 37 years are looking for change- change they can trust and that comes in the form of Gary Black who has represented them for 20 years. I live in South Georgia and I everyone I talk to says they’d vote for Tommy over Kemp simply because he would keep the status quo, they know Tommy would lead the department the same way he has for 37 years.. Brian’s talk of budget cuts and his lack of experience in Agriculture is scary to all farmers.

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