If Reed wins the nomination…

…what will have been the reason? Will it have been effective grassroots mobilization, off-the-charts name recognition, association with the Christian Coalition, effective explanation of questions raised about his past dealings, support from national figures like Giuliani, Zell, and John Smoltz, effective articulation of his plan for a better Georgia, or any other reason not listed here?

It goes without saying that, if Cagle wins, the reasons will be effective communication to his base and undecideds of his leadership experience and vision, combined with — and most likely outweighed by — dissatisfaction with Reed, whose past dealings most Cagle voters probably have a bad feeling about. So, if Reed is to defeat Cagle in this increasingly tight race, what will be the catalyst? I know what Bull Moose, Demon, Maurice, Wire, and others will say, so Reed folks, please chime in!

30 comments

  1. debbie0040 says:

    All of the reason you listed plus Cagle’s own ads. The Cagle ad about the Mariannas was over the top and people began to move away from the Cagle Camp to Reed’s. Cagle’s own ad will be his Waterloo.

  2. rugby_fan says:

    i think it will be because of RR’s connections within GA Politics and his ability to get people to the polls.

    Who knows, it may just come down to him getting people to the polls, unfortunately for him, it might be the people against him.

  3. Chris says:

    I think Casey oversold this opponent’s lack of ethics and undersold his own experience for the job.

  4. Headin\' South says:

    Ralph started with great name recognition, which is tough to overcome. Cagle didn’t focus too much on what he would deliver, but I certainly can understand the temptation to pick all the low hanging fruit associated with Reed.

    Incidentally, someone questioned Sen. Judson Hill’s endorsement. I just received the following email:

    Dear Voter,
    Tomorrow, Georgia Republicans will go to the polls to nominate our candidate for Lt. Governor. It is a position that will significantly impact everything that happens in our state for at least the next four years. Georgians deserve a leader with experience, dedication to service, and most importantly, a leader they can trust. The best choice for our state is Senator Casey Cagle.

    As elected Republicans, we know how important it is to have an effective leader running the State Senate and we are in full support of Casey Cagle. We have been behind Senator Cagle since he announced his intentions to run for Lt. Governor because of his leadership, experience and vision for Georgia. He has demonstrated an honest and trustworthy commitment to conservative principles in over a decade of public service, and he has never betrayed our trust. Passage of common-sense legislation like tort reform, private property protection, severe penalties for sexual predators, voter ID, the nation’s strongest state laws against illegal immigration, a $1 Billion tax-cut, etc… have proven that Republicans can lead state government and make a positive difference and Casey Cagle has been there ensuring that all these important pieces of legislation were passed.

    The son of a single mom, Casey Cagle has lived the American dream. He has proved it as a loving father, a successful businessman, and a trusted legislator. Georgians deserve a leader with a proven record they can trust. Georgians deserve Casey Cagle to be our next Lt. Governor.

    We know there has been a lot of mudslinging in this race and it can be confusing so please take a moment to look at FactCheck.org, the nation’s top non-partisan political advertising analysts, have concluded that Ralph Reed’s attack campaign on Casey Cagle is “false and misleading.”

    Polls show that this is an extremely tight race with large numbers of undecided voters. Your vote could well be the ONE THAT MAKES THE DIFFERENCE. We hope that you will join us in support for Casey Cagle as our next Lt. Governor and please go to the polls tomorrow to cast your vote, and please encourage everyone you know to do the same.

    If you need any information on voting, just call Casey’s office at 770-536-9998. If you need more information on Casey Cagle, please visit http://www.caseycagle.com

    Thank you for your time and consideration

    At your Service,

    Sen. Chip Pearson
    Sen. Chip Rogers
    Sen. Jeff Mullis
    Sen. Johnny Grant
    Sen. Bill Heath
    Sen. Judson Hill
    Sen. Dan Moody
    Sen. Jim Whitehead
    Sen. Greg Goggans
    Sen. Joe Carter
    Sen. Nancy Schaefer
    Sen. Bill Hamrick
    Sen. David Shafer
    Sen. John Bulloch
    Sen. Ronnie Chance
    Sen. Jeff Chapman
    Sen. John Douglas
    Sen. Brian Kemp
    Sen. Ross Tolleson
    Sen. Dan Weber
    Sen. Seth Harp
    Sen. John Wiles
    Sen. Don Thomas

  5. Bull Moose says:

    If Reed wins the nomination, than I think Republicans have just cut off there feet in the race to maintain the Governor’s mansion and make solid gains in other positions.

    However, let me say this, I feel very confident that Casey Cagle will be victorious tomorrow at the polls. He’s worked hard. He has a great staff that has run an excellent campaign. Common sense leaders across the state have endorsed him.

    I will say this. I think that Lynn Westmoreland’s stock has gone WAY down. Not only did he come out and show himself to be a racist with his outspoken stance against extending the Voting Rights Amendment, but he’s continued to toe the line for Ralph Reed and Tom DeLay despite the overwhelming evidence against them. Saxby too has hurt himself with his outspoken involvement in the primaries on behalf of Gary Black.

    I think that it’s better for Federal office holders to follow the Isakson/Kingston model and remain neutral.

  6. bowersville says:

    H\S
    Thanks for sharing your email (I usually don’t get any of the emails from anyone until the 5-7pm time frame.)

    Kudos! To Senator Nancy Schaefer of the 50th! Glad to see you on this list!

  7. Mike Hassinger says:

    If Reed wins -and this is going to be close, so that’s a big “if” (all caps or something)- he will have done so by driving a wedge between the hardcore evangelist/social conservatives and every other kind of Republican. His negative campaign will have pushed undecideds, fiscal-first conservatives, the real heirs of the Reagan/Goldwater tradition, moderate Democrats, swing primary voters, Chamber of Commerce/Country Club Republicans, away from A) Cagle and B) the primary. He will have shrunk the big tent down to his supporters and his supporters only. He’s executed that plan perfectly so far. We’ll see if it works late tomorrow night.

  8. Jeff Emanuel says:

    That’s a good analysis from the Reed-winning-is-bad perspective, Mike. I’d like to hear (from SC or another articluate Reed supporter) the view of Reed winning that sees it as a GOOD thing. I know there are many — a majority? it remains to be seen — who view it that way, and would like to know how it is accomplished in their view.

  9. GOPeach says:

    The Reasons Ralph would win are as follows:

    1. He spent 30 years building the GOP.

    2. He has made lots of friends in the grassroots
    as well as in “high places” .

    3. He has done everything in politics except run for office.
    ( campaign, lobby, strategize)

    4. He has worked as hard as anyone to have ” name recognition”.

    5. He has studied History and campaigns throughout the past.
    Most likely he is familiar with SunTzu.

    6. He did not muscel this thing with brut strength. He used his
    mind and thought it through. He stayed cool.

    7. He kept his wife Jo Anne involved and visible. She loved it.

    8. He did not miss a beat. He was at everything and talked to
    everyone.

    9. He stayed very positive even when people we mean to him.

    10. He smiled and lit up the room with positive
    energy and charisma.

    11. He made everyone feel important.

    12. He stayed close to the ” Church folks”
    and honored them as his family
    ( So many these days appoligize for
    having such a ties )

  10. Mike Hassinger says:

    The Reasons Ralph would win are as follows:
    GOPeach, only in your very tiny mind.

    1. He spent 30 years building the GOP.
    At the age of FIFTEEN, he invented Republicans?

    2. He has made lots of friends in the grassroots
    as well as in “high places

  11. BahamaBoy says:

    The little emperor apparently has no clothes — or signs!

    Visiting 15 precincts this morning we saw virtually no Reed signs — anywhere. One or two, here and there, but no substantial presence anywhere in North Fulton. We even drove back to some earlier stops thinking Reed’s camp would show up late and replace Cagle signs with their own. Nope! The threat never materialized.

    Word on the street is that Reed ran out of signs — and money!

    He’ll probably start a new accusation that Cagle’s people stole all of his signs the day of the election. Yeah, right!

  12. GOPeach says:

    B-Boy

    I just got in from taking the seniors in the retirement community to
    breakfast at 6 AM and then to vote at 7AM. We passed about 8
    precincts and I saw a sea of REED signs in Vinings. They were not
    big road signs, they were in the yards of people who are saying
    ” We are with REED”. That speaks loud and clear.

    Also, I just got off the phone with a freind in West Cobb, who said
    that there were REED sign wavers at nearly all major intersections
    on Dallas Hwy and The E/W Connector. West Cobb is the largest
    Republican Voter Base in Georgia and it looks strong for REED
    from what I gather.

    Well…. we shall see.

    Tomorrow, we will have to lick our wounds, flush the toilet, and
    pull together for whom ever is elected today. We will unite
    no matter what! We are Republicans and we will not be divided
    in order to ne conguered by the liberal left!

    That’s right! GOPeach is going to be behind the one who becomes
    the Republican nominee.

    I never bashed Casey, so I will not be embarrassed to stand with
    him should he win.

    REED or CAGLE….. No Matter What!

  13. jennys says:

    Did anybody get any grassroots training when Reed was State Party Chair? I sure didn’t. I did not get any information about any training or anything else for that matter while he was Chair. Is his idea of grassroots calling pro-choicers (Rudy) and asking them to make calls for him?

    I agree with Bull Moose – if Reed wins, the whole Republican ticket will be poisoned.

  14. BahamaBoy says:

    Those “REED sign wavers at nearly all major intersections
    on Dallas Hwy and The E/W Connector” are homeschooled children bussed into Georgia by the Reed campaign, which pays the kids’ handlers $250 per child per day to put them on the streets waiving saigns from 8 in the morning to 8 at night.

    I am filing a complaint with DFAC today to see if such exploitation violates any child labor or child abuse laws.

  15. Atlanta Lawyer says:

    I’m not a political junkie and have followed this race only in passing. I am (was) one of those undecided voters. I say “was” because I voted this morning and I voted for Cagle despite the fact that I probably leaned toward Reed at the beginning of the race due to his undeniable brilliance and the work he has done over the years for the Republican Party.

    Why did I vote that way? I’m not sure that I completely know. However, I do think that Reed is controversial enough to drive people away from the Republican Party. Given my antipathy for the current version of the Democratic Party, that is a serious issue. The second factor in my decision is knowing that Reed is very ambitious (as are all politicians) and wants to be influencial on the national political stage, not just the state political stage. I just couldn’t see Reed giving a flip about what went on in the Georgia Legislature, yet that is what the Lt. Governor’s job is all about. in the final analysis, I thought Cagle would do a better job as Lieutenant Governor.

    As an aside, I was voting this morning in Dunwoody and woman came in to vote and, when asked whether she was voting Democratic or Republican, she refused to answer, saying she was “undeclared.” Along with the poll workers, we tried to convince her that it didn’t work that way in a primary, that she had to vote in one or the other and mentioning the different races in the two primaries. She finally said, “well which race is Ralph Reed in as I want to be sure to vote against him!” I hate to rely on stereotypes, but from the looks of her I suspect it was the first time in her life she had voted Republican.

  16. northside elephant says:

    West Cobb is certainly not a sea of Reed signs unless something drastically changed in the past 3 hours. There are Handel, Cagle and John Wiles signs at all of the precincts. Black had a massive amount of yard signs there and Kemp had quite a few big signs.

    At least you Reed people are consistent, always talking a big game but I really have not seen it at all. I actually expected a pretty fiersome Reed machine to roll out the last 72 hours. It certainly is not in Cobb, Cherokee or N. Fulton.

  17. Bull Moose says:

    The Reed people are waiting to do their GOTV tomorrow.

    If Reed wins, you would think, according to some of his supporters, that he’s going to negotiate peace in the middle east, discover oil that turns into oil, and wipe out famine with one of his hit pieces.

    If Reed wins, I expect that there will be some very serious discussion about starting a new party of Georgia so that the REAL mainstreet Republicans, Independents, and moderate Democrats will have a choice in who to vote for in the general election.

  18. Donkey Kong says:

    I agree with GOPeach, that even though I have supported Reed, if Cagle pulls out the nomination, I will still be happy to support him. Unlike most Cagle supporters whose main goal in voting for Cagle seems to be to keep Reed out of office, I am not voting for Reed because of strong disdain for Cagle. I just think Reed will be more effective. But, should Cagle win, I’ll be happy to pitch in my part in the months rolling towards November.

  19. BahamaBoy says:

    Bottomless pit of unintelligent ramblings because your “husband is a respected judge.”

    Stand by your man, Peach.

  20. MountainThinker says:

    One thing I’ll bet money on…Reed wins the nomination and you’ll see more votes cast for a libertarian than in any race in Georgia history…Mark my words!

  21. GOPeach says:

    Bah Mama Boy –

    ( lighten up… I’m just teasing you)

    You are soooo intense. Geeeeeeeze

  22. BahamaBoy says:

    Bah Mama Boy?

    Now, that’s the first intelligent comeback I’ve read from you Peach. I like it.

    Just teasing back . . .

  23. GOPeach says:

    Mountain Thinker –

    I have very close contacts with the Libertarian Party-

    And you want to know something???

    They have JUST AS MANY issues as the GOP!
    Trust me. I am serious.

    They have just as many egos. pissing contests,
    turf guarding, people who sin, people who
    lie, people who cheat, power plays, etc…

    There is no perfect party!
    I say work with what you have.

    Honestly, I have never observed so many cry babies
    in my life! You Cagle people are so emotional and
    such poor sports. You are so negative and dismal.

    Lt Gov, is not a big deal really. They have little power
    actually. This will be a proving ground for Ralph or
    Casey. If they make the cut – then they can move
    on – If they don’t they will be out!

    Casey ot Ralph can always run again.
    They are both young.

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