Some thoughts, part 2

A second post, again on the Cagle-Reed (or is that Reed-Cagle?) race.

Polls. Erick and get to see early results from a ton of them, both at the national and local level. As we all know, however, the real poll is election day. I’m also a big fan of anectdotal evidence as a gauge of how things might go. To that end, I’ve been doing my own polling over the last few weeks. Mostly conservatives, mostly on the “Big Race”.

Subject 1: Conservative, retired schoolteacher in Forsyth County. Not politically active, but regular voter in generals and primaries. Completely disgusted with the Reed-Cagle advertisements on TV. Doesn’t really identify with either candidate. Perhaps will pull the “R” lever in the general, but likely to skip over that race on Tuesday.

Subjects 2: Group of guys, middle-right. Poker night. Idle chit chat about the races, some jokes about how nasty the ads have been. I ask – “Who are you going to vote for?”. One response: “Whoever’s name is first”. A third guy says “Hey, not a bad idea”. Another: “Doesn’t make me want to vote, I probably won’t get there”.

In the last two weeks, I haven’t found one person that can repeat to me the positive qualifications of either candidate. I’m not talking about things like “A Stronger Georgia” and “The Right Person At The Right Time”. Our brains FILTER that stuff. Neither Reed nor Cagle has endeared themselves to Georgia voters, in my opinion. And at the risk of being called a shill, I think that favors Reed.

And I still haven’t decided who to vote for.

6 comments

  1. Bull Moose says:

    Clayton, I think it’s about turnout.

    As you must know, Realtors are all behind Casey Cagle. He’s been endorsed by the Georgia Association of Realtors and they are running ads touting his efforts to fight eminent domain and protect private property rights.

    Realtors are going to turn out and vote for Casey Cagle.

    I live on the coast and things are different here than they are in the big city or the suburbs of such big city.

    When I talk to people here, anecdotal conversations, family and friends, by and large, the first thing I hear is that they are not going to vote for Ralph Reed – PERIOD. Most are put off because they feel like he’s a hypocrite and they reject that. From there, I tell them about Casey. If I’m lucky, I drag them to a Casey event, get them information, or whatever… Most like Cagle.

    I personally think that Casey’s building a solid bond with Georgia voters. He’s going to have to work hard to maintain it and I think he can do it. I think that when Casey wins, he’s going to need to continue working with local elected officials and community leaders and show them that he’s for real. One of the things that works in Casey’s favor is that he’s REAL. He’s authentic. He’s sincere. Like he says, he doesn’t have to be Lt. Governor. He feels the need to serve and is doing so.

    On the contrary, Ralph is and has always been a person who manipulates others. I don’t know how he wins. And I don’t know how he has any credibility with local elected officials, community leaders, or really anyone with common sense. If Reed wins, he’ll have done so without the support of those people.

    However, let me be more to the point. Look at the Cagle supporters and look at the Reed supporters. Who has community credibility. I think that’s how you predict victory, and that benefits Cagle.

  2. larry smith says:

    This race will go down to the wire. If sane, rational Georgians who care about our state’s future turn out, the race goes to Cagle.

    If, however, turnout is low and dominated by fruits, flakes, and nuts, it gives Reed the edge.

    By and large, Peach Pundit readers are rational and sane. Therefore, DON’T FORGET TO VOTE.

  3. Maurice Atkinson says:

    Clayton, after reading this last night I have thought a little about you and Erick’s assessment. The sentiments seem to be just about the same. However, I completely disagree.

    As most politicos understand, especially on this board, the year prior to this election has been “base building”. The last month has been “voter awareness, gotv and the real campaign.” Ralph and company allege that Casey has been negative from the start. I beg to differ. One side has shown extreme arrogance and that has been Reed and Company.

    Consider:

    1. State Convention– Ralph got his panties in a wad because Casey had purchased advertising on the room keys. For those who were not there, it was his logo. Everything Casey did at the convention was pro-active and simply introducing himself as an all round good guy, competent and insightful. The only mud slinging, and I really don’t know if that’s the appropriate word, but it was from Ralph. His attitude and arrogance. Woe that Casey should do anything to market himself.

    2. Campaign– Casey establishes a spiffy website and uploads his agenda. The agenda is solid and workable. It is not based on rhetoric. It builds to create efficiency in government linking the state with local governments. He is criticized because it is not overwhelming with and overhaul. Ralph presents his agenda. No mention of how this thing is paid for. Ralph promises tax cuts, but proposes whopping spending proposals. Free private school education for all, but not one word on how to fund it. (Oh, don’t ask that question, you don’t believe in vouchers if you do. And certainly you’re not a conservative if you ask that. I sent my kids to private school for much of their primary and secondary education. I also home schooled them for awhile). At every turn it has been arrogance and spin. Ralph has been given a pass in this election of defining himself, because we have all had a persona of the Ralph we hoped he was. When the ethical baggage started presenting itself, what’s a campaign to do? Allow the candidate to continue to embellish the fraudulent persona and continue to rile the other? Hence, Readaboutreed.com. Oh, that’s not being a good Republican.

    Ralph created his own mess. The tentacles of the corruption are broad. Most, if not all, would love for them to just go away. No one wants to see this kind of barbaric slugfest. But when Ralph opens his campaign to Georgians it’s with a thrashing of Cagle. He presents a bogus charge of Casey supporting eminent domain abuse. Then he goes deeper and criticizes his business practices. And in the political loop, he has perpetuated some vicious rumors. The issues and problems with Ralph are serious and the people deserve to know the allegations. Even after July 18th, Ralph’s problems are not going away. Quite the contrary.

    The only way to kill a cockroach is either to stamp on it or use pesticide. Looks like pesticides were used.

    I recall a few years ago I had the opportunity of introducing one of my heroes to an audience he was going to speak to. I had used some of his management material in our organization and our church. His management principles were not just management principles but life principles. Well, I extolled to virtues of this person and what he met to me and my family. When he took the stage, he said something really profound about knowing a person. He said, I knew of him from my reading and listening to his material, but I did not know all of who he was. Ok, maybe it really wasn’t all that profound, but it was certainly thought stimulating. However, we never really knew Ralph.

    For many, Ralph is excused because he did some really good things for the Party at his 2 year stint. Others appreciate the work he did for the Christian Coalition. That also is not rosey. Coleson and many prominent Christian leaders have discussed moral relativism. The issues concerning Ralph are the epitomy of moral relativism. The ends do not justify the means. There is a right and a wrong. Towery addressed it the best in the GQ article http://men.style.com/gq/features/full?id=content_4608 “””””””””Matt Towery has a theory about that. He has known Reed for more than twenty years, and he’s known Washington just as long. He was there for the Revolution in 1994, chairing Newt Gingrich’s campaign. He was one of Them. He does not dislike Reed. He just knows Reed and creatures like Reed.
    “The thing people don’t realize is, Ralph Reed’s really not all that bright,

  4. debbie0040 says:

    Clayton, I have heard things similar to what you stated about not voting. I have also heard voters say they don’t know who to believe so they are sitting the primary out and wait until November to vote.

    I have heard voters angry about the Cagle ads about the Mariannas. They said who is going to really believe that Ralph Reed or any American would be in favor of the forced abortions or slave labor.

    I think Reed will win and it is interesting that the campaign ad that moved people over to the Reed camp was actually one of Cagle’s own ads…

  5. debbie0040 says:

    I have also talked to moderate Republicans in Dekalb that I work with that will be voting Democrat to stop McKinney. They feel that race is a higher priority than the Lt. Governor’s race.

  6. SOUTHERNCOMFORT says:

    I agree with BULL AND MAURICE, Casey’s team will be there and the Reed camp whether they get their MOJO on or not will be a very surprised group. They will be like cows staring at a new gate! That one’s for you Tatertate, I could’nt help it….

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