Down Macon Way

House District 137, the vacated David Graves seat, has probably seen a cleaner race than any other in Georgia. The candidates have spent so much time promoting themselves they have not attacked each other. It has really, really been clean. The only dirty part has been the litter generated by all the signs.

In the final week, and now the final few days, I have seen the race tighten and have polls and rumors of polls now to back me up in what I have been thinking. If I had to speculate right now, I would say that Stebin Horne, who has been the front runner since he entered, is now in third place with Allen Peake in first place and Becky Burgess in second.

My suspicion is (heck, it’s not really a suspicion) is that Stebin and Becky are within a point or two of each other and flipping back and forth into second place. Allen Peake has been rising steadily and, I think, it is safe to say he sits just outside the margin of error in first place.

If I had to call it right now, I’d say Peake and Burgess go into a runoff.

25 comments

  1. str8tfromtheheart says:

    Thats funny Erick…I have seen two different polls in the last week that had Peake in first, Horne in second, Washburn in third, and Burgess a distant fourth.

    Exactly whose polls had Burgess in second ahead of Washburn and Horne?

    My favorite mailer I have seen is def from the Burgess camp….It says Becky Burgess is the ONLY candidate with a specific job growth plan, and on the same mailer it says…Washburn also has specific job growth plan….I guess she forgot to proof read that one.

    I bet that Peake is first, Stebin second, and i do think that Washburn may edge out Burgess for third

  2. mercergirl says:

    I’m curious as to why you think it’s between Burgess and Peake. I agree Peake is one of the front runners, but I would put Horne ahead of Burgess easily.

    Also, Horne has his supporters out on the streets waiving signs here lately- I think it’s a nice touch and allows him to stand out from others who have yet to do so.

  3. str8tfromtheheart says:

    Mercergirl….Erick is a BIG Burgess homer…..I have seen solid polls that DEF do not have her in front of Horne and maybe not even in front of Washburn.

    At this point, they all have their supporters….now they just have to get them out to the polls.

  4. mercergirl says:

    I like Becky, in fact I attended an event that featured all four candidates speaking at once. Here’s the biggest contrast, in my opinion:

    Horne and Peake are what could be called “stars”, they have great personalities- which is what you need in any race. Which is not to say that Burgess and Washburn do not, I feel Ms Burgess simply comes off a little meek. WHat she has going in her favor are the Junior League members and her family name. That’s about it. She has great experience but I don’t feel the majority of people are aware of it. So that’s why I say the JL and her family will get her through this- if anything.

  5. str8tfromtheheart says:

    I dont dislike any of the candidates….I just think the other three would do a better job than Burgess. Its not personal or meant to be spiteful….its just my opinion. I think the best candidate is Washburn, but I dont think he is gonna come close to cracking into the runoff unfortunaltey.

  6. Booray says:

    Straight,

    You definitely don’t like Burgess. It is plain and clear.

    If you think someone can do as much as she has in that race and not be ahead of Washburn, you are demonstrating your blind loyalty for Horne.

    And by the way – that’s what you are – a Horne homer. The Washburn comments are simply cover.

    Booray

  7. Booray says:

    Here’s another clue why Horne may be behind Burgess and Peake:

    “I am a moderate Republican – a social moderate.”

    Any questions?

  8. str8tfromtheheart says:

    Booray, I do not know Horne and am not supporting Horne……I have been saying for months on pundit that Washburn in the best candidate and who I would like to win. I am a realist tho. Dale hasnt had the money or support to win this race. My wife has been a realtor in Macon for 15 years and we SUPPORT DALE WASHBURN.

    The truth is tho I have seen polls that DO NOT have Burgess in second place. Dale Washburn has done alot in this race for someone who only raised a fourth of the leading campaign in money. Booray, maybe you are just blind period.

  9. Booray says:

    Straight – whatever. My friends in Macon say they have gotten much more from Horne, Burgess, and Peake than Washburn – and say virtually their entire neighborhood is backing Burgess (something about the assessments just done).

    If you are seeing polls, then you must be a campaign insider, and I doubt you are seeing those if you are such a Washburn person.

  10. str8tfromtheheart says:

    Like I said….Dale cannot give as much as the other three b/c he just doesnt have the money. I have seen polls from two different people. I like Washburn and I do not know Horne, so start your process of elimination.

    Its like I said earlier….each one of these candidates has there supporters…its a matter of getting them to the poles.

    My final prediction: Peake 35%, Horne 30%, Washburn 18%, Burgess 17%

  11. mercergirl says:

    Booray,

    I’m curious, where in Macon do your friends live that virtually their entire neighborhood supports Burgess? I live in Macon and can probably predict where they are. I’m guessing most of your friends are in St.Andrews/Idle Hour. I live in this district and have seen more Horne and Peake signs in individual neighborhoods than others.

    Also, this race has people from outside of the district placing signs for either candidate in their yards. Personally, I find it amusing, but it also goes to show that all 4 candidates have a lot of support city and countywide. So, I’m just wondering which neighborhood your friends live in. They certainly aren’t in mine, my neighborhood is going for Horne.

  12. str8tfromtheheart says:

    I rode through St. Andrews and saw mostly Peake and Horne signs (not that suprising considering the amount of stratford and fpd folks that live there), but only a few Burgess signs. Mercergirl can probably attest to this since she lives in tthe district but I would alsmost bet that Peake and Horne yard signs are almost 2 to 1 to Burgess signs….But hey signs dont vote so whatever.

  13. mercergirl says:

    They do. Actually, I saw the first Burgess yard sign on my parent’s street. BTW, I found it interesting since they live on a street which virtually noone drives down unless they live on it.

    Something else I find interesting is how late everyone, except Peake, was about putting signs up. Washburn put his up after Peake, but not in force. Horne was next and then Burgess but even then Horne waaay outnumbered Washburn and Burgess. Personally, I found it a little cocky for the three candidates to wait for so long. But it does not stop me from leaning towards Horne.

    However- let me also say this much. If it was not for the fact that I know Horne personally (ie: his mother was a teacher of mine, my mother works with her, my fiance is a good friend of his, etc) then my vote would probably be more torn between him and Peake.

    Also, I’m wondering- does anyone here pay attention to the Macon City Council race? That’s pretty interesting as well.

  14. Booray says:

    Y’all are judging this on signs? Give me a break.

    Check Dr. Charles Bullock’s comments in yesterday’s Gainesville Times (up here where I live) – he points out Zell Miller didn’t put out a single sign for most of his campaigns, and he managed pretty good.

    Don’t know the name of my friend’s neighborhood but it’s inside Macon city limits – they raise Cain about Mayor Ellis all the time and now the assessment thing.

    By the way – I find the “Burgess in last thing” simply laughable. If nothing else, a serious female candidate who has done as much as she has – facing three other males – is going to do better than that only on female votes if nothing else (they still WAY outvote men).

    And Mercergirl – I know you’re a girl and voting for Horne. In fact, I feel like I’ve “horned” in on a conversation between Mr. and Mrs. Horne themselves this is so obviously one-sided.

  15. Booray says:

    To the Horne Campaign Team on the Pundit tonight:

    Make me a promise. If my friends are right and Burgess makes the runoff, then come back here and own up to it like big boys and girls.

    If they are wrong, I’ll do the same.

    Game on?

  16. str8tfromtheheart says:

    You dont know the name of their neighborhood, and its obvious you dont live in Macon……Yea, def game on.

  17. str8tfromtheheart says:

    But once again…I AM NOT SUPPORTING HORNE…..If I was a Horne supporter…why wouldnt I be proud to announce it? You are crazy.

  18. leftymacon says:

    Have y’all looked at any of the candidate websites? Washburn’s latest newsletter (http://www.dalewashburn.com – click the nesletter link) lists stuff he DIDN’T do – like hiring consultants, stretching the truth in mailers, etc. Fairly strong stuff considering how relatively genteel the race has been to date.

    What I’m hearing in my neighborhood is that people have gotten tired of all the mailers and vague feel-good text (i.e. lots of words, little content). Wonder how many people will vote against Horne and Burgess because of the junk mail?

  19. mercergirl says:

    You know I’m a girl? Wow! What clued you in?

    And by the way, yes I obviously do lean toward Horne- but I haven’t made up my mind tonight. Why be so hostile? I don’t understand your pent up anger. 🙂 And yes, if Burgess makes it to the runoff then not only will I own up to it- although I do not know why there would be any “owning up” to it, after all, if she makes it its not like I could dispute the fact. But I will admit I was wrong, I have no problem doing that.

    However- I do find Erick most recent post to be an interesting turn of events, and I must say that if all of that is true I am disapointed.

  20. mercergirl says:

    leftymacon-

    I like Washburn, and he’s doing a lot better than he did in his last race. Although I’m not sure that not hiring consultants is a plus. A good friend of mine worked on his last campaign and it was pretty disorganized. But I’m glad to see that he learned from the experience and has been able to put more into this campaign.

  21. Erick says:

    Mercergirl, as to the polling, yeah I previously stated on here that I intend to vote for Becky — she’s been a good friend for several years. But the polling is confirmed outside polling.

  22. mercergirl says:

    Erick,

    I have no problem knowing who is ovting for who (unlike some who get their panties in a twist over that), after all of course you would vote for your friend. But I appreciate your telling me its outside polling. I’d be happy to see her do well, even though she’s not my top choice. Like I’;ve said before, I’ll be happy no matter who wins.

  23. Meg says:

    I tell you what I have found entertaining about the House Seat 137 race. Horne puts up all these obnoxious signing – the work over kill comes to mind- and Peake is right there to compete. Seeing both candidates’ sign in the same yard only tells me that the voter either doesn’t care or hasn’t made up his mind about the vote. Burgess has put out signs- only to the people who requested them or gave permission. How do I know this – a live poling was done a few weeks ago asking people if they would like a Burgess sign in their yard. I received that call agreed to have the sign and it was delivered the next day.
    From what I have seen those guys in this race do have something to worry about – Burgess has been working hard and I think the vote will show it. Burgess is the best candidate for this seat. None the rest of the candidates have come out with original plans – they have sat idly and played with yard signs. Burgess has the experience and the knowledge to put her established skills into place. Burgess is also the only one who has had an elected Congressman come to Macon and publicly show his support, Lynn Westmoreland. That show Burgess has the relationships, skills and the appreciation of others for the work she has already done at the state level.

  24. mercergirl says:

    Meg you are so full of it. Horne has been ASKING people if he could do that. Jesus. I have no idea about Peake, so I will not comment. I recommend you do the same, not comment on something unless you know the facts. Either that or clarify that it is your opinion. Thanks.

    Oh and your candidate really needs to learn some better public speaking skills, if you had been paying attention to everyone in this race perhaps you’d realize that. Or perhaps she just had a very bad showing at the event I happened to be at that hosted all four candidates together.

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