IA numbers for Cox/Taylor, Dem. Lt.Gov., Cagle/Reed

Previous polling in parenthesis.

The poll was conducted July 12-13, 2006. Sample size – 500 likely Democratic primary voters. Weighted for age, race and gender. Margin of error plus/minus 4 percent

Dem. Governor Primary

Taylor – 53 percent (49%)
Cox – 41 percent (41%)
Undecided – 6 percent (10%)

Dem. Lt. Governor Primary

Jim Martin – 20 percent
Greg Hecht – 15 percent
Steen “Newslady

16 comments

  1. larry smith says:

    Do you know if he took a look at how the Daufuskie Island stripper vote is breaking down?

  2. Bill Simon says:

    Folks, Ralph is not done yet..he is carpet-bombing Macon media with radio commercials and the Bibb County GOP is ruinning non-stop to please/threaten people with getting out to vote for Ralphie.

  3. duluthmom says:

    The Dem lt. governor numbers are pathetic–Undecided/Don’t Know – 62 percent

    Obviously Dems aren’t thrilled with either Martin or Hecht

  4. rugby_fan says:

    hmm…there seems (to me at least) to be too much change in the GOP Lt Gov race for any numbers to be accurate.

    7 points in a week?

    The dems lt gov race is filled with loosers and the GOP side ain’t much better.

    Cox should just quit now and switch parties.

  5. eem2006 says:

    rugby – this is week before the election. This is when the number start to really move.

    No one, Cagle or Reed supporters, should feel confindent. This comes down to who gets their people to the polls.

  6. rugby_fan says:

    I understand that numbers will change greatly now. But the fact that trends are harder to find and there is great fluctuations, the polls are worthless.

    I am just glad to see the owner of one of my fave pubs (O’Terrill’s, figure out the candidate) is not last. I thought Griffin would get about 5-8%.

    Staying with the dems: I think the large undecided is due to just how low JM and GH hit each other this week.

    Where there any GE head to heads?

  7. Jack S says:

    Does anyone take this towery moron seriously?

    I just got an email with his “analysis”.

    Summary – women and business people might go for casey. Christians might go for reed.

    Its either going to be close or a blow out.

    My summary- towery is an ass kissing blowhard, and these numbers are essentially made up.

  8. eem2006 says:

    All you have to do is take one look at Matt Towery and know that he is not to be taken seriously….that hair is truly offensive.

    LIke I said, polls don’t mean squat at this stage in the race. It is GOTV all the way.

  9. GAWire says:

    Uh, am I hearing an echo in here? “GOTV all the way … all that matters it turnout …” I’m having a sense of deja-vu!

    These polls are not meaningless, though, they are a little more obvious at this point. These are tracking polls – they are not ID polls. These numbers don’t tell you anything except for the fact that the race is in dead heat, and even Fox won’t do a Breaking News Alert on that one its so obvious.

    The campaigns know the numbers at this point. They know their strengths and weaknesses. They know where they need to concentrate their forces on getting people out to vote (or at least they should).

    Forget about the media. Forget about the signs in front of WaHo. Forget about Abramoff. Casey’s people better be focusing on one thing: getting their people to the polls!!!!!

    Joel/Brad/Casey, if you get one wink of sleep b/t now and Tuesday, I’m going to be pissed.

    Here is a little qualitative research for you: Your people are very nervous – work with that in mind. Some commenters might sound as though we should start the party now, but don’t be deceived, we are at risk.

    Make it happen!

  10. If you want some trends, here’s my analysis of the Democratic gubernatorial polling numbers:

    Mark Taylor: 53% (49)(47)(45)

    Cathy Cox: 41% (41)(41)(33)

    Undecided/Don’t Know: 6% (10)(12)(22)

    The Coxnumbers stalled out at 41% and the Undecided numbers kept dwindling with a break towards Mark Taylor.

    The first time, the Undecideds dropped ten percent with 8% going to Cathy and 2% going for Mark.

    The second time, the Undecideds dropped two percent and broke for Mark Taylor putting him at 49%.

    On at my site, I wrote that “If this trend keeps up, then by July 18th (the date of the Democratic gubernatorial primary) Mark Taylor will pick up another 2% of the undecided Democratic primary voters putting him at 51%, with Cathy Cox remaining at 41% and the Undecideds shrinking to 8%.” (Read “Analyzing the latest poll results… “)

    Well, that’s exactly what happened.

    The Undecideds got smaller (from 10% to 6%) and broke entirely towards Mark Taylor (putting him at 53%) meaning that if things continue the way they’re going, Cathy Cox will remain at 41%, Mark Taylor will win the primary outright with 57% of the vote, and the remaining 2% will be undecided or split between Bill Bolton and Mac McCarley.

    I think it’s time for Cathy Cox to start writing her concession speech.

  11. Tater Tate says:

    Real quite–you Cagle guys. Guess you are still in shock at those numbers. Or maybe their all down at the Waffle House taking a break to watch those Reed signs go up.

  12. northside elephant says:

    Tater, Cagle has had consistent momentum from the first poll until now. He out-raised Reed 3 to 1 this period and he is all over the radio and TV.

    We’re feeling good. Signing out, I’ve got signs to put up now that rush-hour is over.

Comments are closed.