More IA Tracking Polls

I’ve added the previous numbers (from 7/10) in parenthesis


Bailey – 10 percent (11%)
Handel – 39 percent (38%)
Martin – 2 percent (1%)
Stephens – 29 percent (26%)
Undecided – 20 percent (24%)
Survey sample 300. Margin of error – plus/minus 6 percent

Latest InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion Tracking Survey Republican Ag Commissioner

Black – 35 percent (28%)
Greer – 9 percent (9%)
Kemp – 30 percent (29%)
Strickland – 4 percent (4%)
Undecided – 23 percent (30%)


  1. Hortence says:

    How in hades can an ethically challegned candidate like Bill Stephens be running? I’m so tired of those kind of politicians…

    Vote for Stephens if ethics don’t matter. Vote for Stephens if you want a small anchor around the GOP team. Heck, vote for Stephens if you just don’t give a damn and are ready to vote for the hopeful Dem candidate Sham Reddy.

  2. bowersville says:

    Relax, I feel the same way you do. I’ve been out here waiting on Batman and his other looney toon Stephens supporters to come out of their caves and respond since Buzz posted this poll. You are correct by being tired of this type of politician. I’ve heard all the garbage from Stephens as you have. In fact the day Handel announced, Stephens vomited his garbage and has not stopped puking. I’m having a hard time waiting for a Stephens supporter to respond! So Batman come out of your cave, if you dare!

  3. Booray says:

    I’ll respond.

    Bill Stephens represented my area. Anyone who thinks the ethics fine he got was fair (which was bigger than the felon in Augusta who is in federal pen) is way too biased to see the truth. The guy got screwed by Teddy Lee, who has thankfully – finally – been run off.

    Hard for me to understand the affection everyone here has for Handel. Stephens points out her record in Fulton, and it’s vomit? When did Republicans stop caring about elected officials wanting to take tax money to spend it on domestic benefits that so many people in our state find objectionable?

    And don’t tell me it’s irrelevant. Handel hit Stephens on SB5. If taxpayer-financed domestic partner benefits are irrelevant, so is eminent domain.

  4. John Silage Jr. says:

    Don’t get me wrong, I am a hudge Gary supporter but can anyone explain the 7 point jump in 2 days?

  5. Dawgsrock says:

    I know you Stephens folks don’t get worried about the facts. Handel never voted for domestic partner benefits. The dpb program in Fulton was in place when she took office.

    I think the voters in Georgia care a lot more about losing their property rights than dpb. We’ll find out on 7/18.

  6. Groseclose says:


    In the first poll, he hadn’t been on the airwavies–TV or radio. In the second poll, he had hit both markets.

  7. HJ Bailey says:

    Haha. I have yet to see one of his cute little ads on TV or on radio, but I like most people, turn the radio when I hear a commercial like his.

  8. waterboy says:

    HJ –

    You must not watch FOX NEWS. It is a conservative news source that most conservative families watch….maybe you have heard of it. I have seen the ad several times during primetime news slots on Fox.

    As for radio, I listed to XM to avoid all commercials.

  9. Bull Moose says:

    You know, I’m so sick of politics this cycle, if it weren’t for people like Casey Cagle, Karen Handel, and a handful of others, I wouldn’t even give a damn who won or loss this time around.

    What we as interested voters need to be concerned with is the fact that democratic participation is at all time lows. I would submit it’s this politics of personal destruction that has been employed by candidates like Bill Stephens that drives people from being engaged and interested in politics. I mean for God’s sake, he openly allowed people associated with him to question Karen’s family and her and her husband’s love for one another. Those are lines you just don’t cross.

    Furthermore, in a desperate attempt to try and win his first elective office, Ralph Reed simply twisted facts and made up negative personal issues against Casey Cagle. He does that and his so called legions of supporters just blindly follow him off the cliff.

    The one thing that I will say that is even a little more concerning is this issue about SB 5. It was a horrible bill when it was introduced. It was a developer backed bill and shouldn’t have seen the light of day. It’s one thing to advocate public-private partnerships, it’s completely another to turn over the powers of government to private interest developers. I may have a hard time voting for someone that supported SB 5.

    For the record, Casey Cagle did NOT support SB 5.

  10. JRM2016 says:


    Check Karen’s voting record on the County Commission and you will see where she stands on dpb. Stephens charge on that issue, like all the others, is not fact based.

    On the other hand, Stephens co-sponsored SB5. Check the record on the legislature’s web site and it is right there.

    Karen is doing all the right things and we just need to get out and vote (remember you can still vote early today and of course on Tuesday).

    Handel ’06

  11. John Silage Jr. says:


    Let’s test your supernatural ability to tell how people have voted in the past.

    Who did I vote for in my county school board race in 2004?
    Who did my my great grandfather vote for in the 1872 presidential election?

  12. HJ Bailey says:

    Your great grandfather most likely supported Charles Jenkins from Georgia in the 1872 Presidential Election.

    I am fairly positive you probably voted for a local democrat in that school board race being that you are supporting a liberal democrat for Ag Commissioner.


    Can’t put alot of credence with IA poll, SV is more accurate, 7 points…don’t think so.

  14. HJ Bailey says:

    You are right comfort–We always leave it to you to shed a little common sense on a situation, something that the koolaiders cant seem to manage

  15. John Silage Jr. says:

    Sorry HJ,

    Our school board race down here is non-partisan-maybe that’s what threw your powers off.

  16. HJ Bailey says:

    Probably. I have no doubt that you supported the candidate with the most liberal ideology though that wanted to increase spending and create a larger bureaucracy iin the education system like Gary Black wants to do in the Department.

  17. buzzbrockway says:

    Don’t get me wrong, I am a hudge Gary supporter but can anyone explain the 7 point jump in 2 days?

    I can’t explain it other than to say it’s as it’s been for a long time: Kemp and Black are headed for a runoff. Undecideds are gathering around those two.

    That being said, Black is the only candidate in either race who moved more than the margin or error.

  18. Dawgsrock says:

    I think Groseclose hit on part of the reason. Black went up on TV and Radio. I believe he also had direct mail drop. Seems like h was holding everything back for the last 7 – 10 days, and making a massive push.


    Buzz, I agree there will be a runoff and then KEMP will take it due to the turnout…

  20. landman says:

    I agree with Buzz,this is a two horse race and we are for sure headed to a runoff,and I think that favors Kemp.

    On a side note these two spoke with others to a joint meeting between the Loose Group and The 159 Group on Tuesday,and its known who I support but man what a difference between the two.Kemp’s ability to present a vision and direction of this Department is far more polished and he comes across with much more command of relaying his thoughts to a large group.

    At the end of the day I think these two will be close,but Kemp wins and goes on to beat Mr.Tommy.

  21. HJ Bailey says:

    I remember seeing Gary and Brian speak together for the first time at a GOP deal. I didnt know who I was supporting until I listened to both of them. Gary talked about his 2 agriculture teenagers and the FFA and his cow betsy and how he is a farmer but wears gold buckled penny loafers and spent some time making gift baskets.

    And then heard Kemp, the Senate Leader that actually has detailed plans for Georgia and the Ag Department. He talked about his leadership, his experience and his plans with great command.

    The fact is clear, we need a bold leader and a candidate that can beat Irvin and that is going to take great contrast. Kemp is the only hope.

  22. Mike says:

    Southern–Stop shouting every time you say KEMP. The runoff should come down to who has the most cash. That’s Gary. Unfortunately, little will be left to fight Tommy. I still like the idea of the #2 man gracefully bowing out(and I said that when Gary was behind in the polls also) Not gonna happen, but it sure would be nice.

  23. Mike says:

    Granted, I haven’t heard Kemp speak and he may be Reaganesque(sp?) in front of a group, but Gary is very articulate and engaging in front of a crowd. I’m afraid that Bailey is exaggerating again.

  24. HJ Bailey says:

    HAHA, I am afraid not Mike. Gary is far from articulate. He stutters and jumps around and he will randomly start screaming and waving his hands.

    On a lighter note, where is the Bob Greer video at?? HAHA I am ready to see it.

  25. GabrielSterling says:

    I agree they are going into a runoff. But I think that dynamic aids Black. The only two races likely in a runoff on our side are SoS and Ag.

    So sure the metro folks that turn out in the runoff will be the core of the GOP, those with a stake in the Ag race will turnout higher than normal through the rest of the state, where Black seems stronger.

    Also, I am 90% sure that Black has more money on hand to run the runoff, which will favor him as well. He also has Congressmen Deal, Westmoreland, Linder and Norwood on his side. Of these Norwood has a strong turnout machine throughout East Georgia (with all the redistricting, Norwood’s represented probaly 25% of the state by now).

    Both Kemp and Black have run strong campaigns, but I think Black will take it in the runoff.

  26. Mike says:

    Bailey–He must have been having a really good day when I saw him. The way you describe him, he sounds like a crackhead(not that there is anything wrong with that). On Greer–What posses someone to continue puting time, effort and money in to a lost cause?

  27. HJ Bailey says:

    That will never happen, so I do not have to worry about having an answer to that question Sewage.

  28. waterboy says:

    Silage, Jr. –

    You are trying to wager a bet with a loser. Don’t bother. He is desperate and saying these things about Gary only points out just how big of a loser he really is. I share your confidence in the election – Gary Black will win the primary and very well could do it without a runoff.

    Gary is very articulate and knowledgeable on the issues covered by the Agriculture Commissioner. I heard his say the other day that we do not need “on the job training” for this position. He is dead right and Gary will be an effective leader on day one of this job. You can bank on that!

    Vote for Gary if you want fresh leadership with working knowledge in the Ag Commissioner post and if you want to see Irvin go home.

    Gary Black is the only one who can win this office because he is the only republican qualified for the job.

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