Collins v. Marshall

The AJC’s Political Insider has posted a DCCC poll that shows that Rep. Jim Marshall has a double digit lead over former Rep. Mac Collins.

According to the poll, conducted July 8-10 by the Democratic firm of Hamilton, Beattie and Staff, Marshall leads Collins 58-32 percent, with 10 percent undecided. Doug Moore, Marshall’s communications manager, said it was his understanding the poll has Marshall leading both in those parts of the Central Georgia district he represented formerly, and those that are new to him.

I wanted to note that Collins has out raised Marshall in each of the last three quarters and in total contributions.

Raised 4th Qtr 05
Collins – $354,406.89
Marshall – $252,070.01

Raised 1st Qtr 06
Collins – $256,519.37
Marshall – $204,137.64

Raised 2nd Qtr 06
Collins – $223,071.95
Marshall – $186,853.25

Total Contributions
Collins – 1,176,380.31
Marshall – 1,154,041.80

I just thought that it was worth a mention.

7 comments

  1. HSC Republican says:

    I think Max’s has a better chance. Lets hope Mac gets a real campaign team in there, one that will get off the ground. It was almost sad watching him in the Senate race.

  2. Jeff Emanuel says:

    The problem here, as I have it from folks on the ground in the area (and Erick is far closer to the area, obviously, so feel free to overrule) is that Collins has been trying to paint this conservative Democrat as a liberal extremist. Marshall, a veteran, plays well with the Warner Robins voters; as a pro-lifer, he plays well with the other conservatives in the area.

    My understanding is that, in the early going at least, they went through a LOT of campaing managers and consultants, but just haven’t been able to get the traction they had hoped for in this nationally-targeted district.

    Mac was my Congressman in Fayette county a few years ago, and I like the man (although I WILL go to sleep right in my chair if I have to attend another of his speeches), but, as Demon says, I just don’t see him winning this one.

  3. I just wanted to point out something that I think a lot of people overlook on disclosures, ironically — expenditures! Doing an FEC search, you see that Collins has outraised Marshall this cycle (’05-’06) by about $20,000 total. And yet, he has outspent him by nearly $250,000.

    Up to this point (when no campaign communication has happened yet) Marshall has spent only about 10% of what he has raised, Collins has spent close to 35%. I think the primary reason is that the GOP small donor fundraising costs a lot of money to keep up with your Democratic incumbent. All that postage, callbacks, more postage, second calls, etc and the costs add up.

    Think about Collins’ primary money base — Henry County and Columbus/Muscogee County. These people are no longer in the district, so he has to spend even more money with direct mail solicitation to get their attention than if they saw coverage on Collins in the local news or, for the Columbus folks, on the TV.

    As a candidate, you want to raise as much money as possible, so you’ll have close to an unlimited fount come election time to spend from. But when it comes to fundraising expenses, Marshall and Collins both got to the same destination (about $1.2 million) but Marshall drove a Prius and Collins drove a gas guzzling SUV. And I don’t blame Collins. Without the heavy expenses he’d probably raise $0.

  4. jsm says:

    I worked my tail off for Collins in ’04, but there was no overcoming his campaign staff. There was higher than normal turnover in that staff as well–some hard workers, but not as talented as the other teams.

    Mac comes across as a good ol’ country boy, and he doesn’t show his intricate knowledge of budget issues until asked. I heard that he had been approached about heading the IRS, but that he said he would work to shut it down.

    I sure hope Mac’s team pulls it together this time. He’s a great candidate that needs a sharp, attractive front person to put some excitement with his knowledge.

  5. Demonbeck says:

    Mac can do wonders with a small group. Ask him to speak in front of a large group and it’s snooze city.

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