The SV Poll

Chris pointed out something I overlooked in the Strategic Vision poll — Brian Kemp leads everyone. Good for him.

Brian Kemp 33%
Gary Black 27%
Bob Greer 7%
Deanna Strickland 5%
Undecided 28%

That really goes against what I was thinking on that race. There is still high undecideds. Why do I think Black may still win? There are 28% undecided and Black will be the first name the undecideds get to on the ballot for that race.

34 comments

  1. Mike Hassinger says:

    I’ve always heard that the first name on the ballot advantage is good for about 2% of the vote. But some are now saying that advantage has been negated by touch screens. Any thoughts from the sages at PP?

  2. Chris says:

    The question I posed in my tip is: How much of Kemp’s boost is due to is outreach to suburban voters via his agro-terror mailing?

  3. Maurice Atkinson says:

    I would think as long as it’s firt on the ballot, even with a touch screen, it will get a few votes. That’s very old school politics.

    I’m not sure how it is here, but in Indiana we were adamant at keeping the SoS’s office in Republican control for that very reason. Our candidates would be the first listed in the general election.

  4. SOUTHERNCOMFORT says:

    THE DEMOCATIC ELECTION FOR GOV WILL BODE WELL FOR MY MAN BRIAN..ARE YOU GOING TO RIDE THE FENCE ON THIS ONE TO ERICK UNTIL WE WIN… KEMP 06′

  5. atlantaman says:

    There has been an interesting study done on ballot placement. There are a few states that acutally rotate ballot placement during the election, so researchers are able to perform analysis. I don’t know how credible the professor is, but he claims the further down-ballot the race is the bigger the advantage ballot placment is.

    Pesonally, if ballot placement is in fact an advantage, I don’t see how the advantage changes on a touch screen. The only theory I’ve heard on touch screen is it reduces ballot fatigue, by asking the voter on numerous occasions to vote in all of the races. I don’t know if there have been any GA studies, but if the theory is correct there should be a higher percentage of votes in the Labor and PSC races.

    http://researchnews.osu.edu/archive/nameplac.htm

  6. waterboy says:

    This is a race for Agriculture Commissioner – not Land Developer Commissioner. Gary Black wins because he knows Agriculture.

  7. Bill Simon says:

    What about the Gomer Pyle method of voting, has that been checked-out by scientific study yet?

    It’s the method where if you have two choices on a ballot, you assign candidates your first two fingers, and then slap your first two fingers on a flat edge and whichever finger is left tingling the longest is the candidate you go with.

  8. Mike says:

    Gary better start spending some of that cash on hand before it’s too late. It won’t look as impressive sitting in a bank account if he loses the primary.

  9. Andrew says:

    Still this is a down ballot election, there will be a large no vote with this many candidates. And has anyone heard if Tommy will actually campaign or just take short cat naps till Novemeber?

  10. HJ Bailey says:

    Waterboy, I, as a suburban GOP Primary voter, really care about cows and FFA. Or not.

    I and others care about protecting our families and our kids and protecting our economy.

    And a business and conservative republican, experienced legislator has the skills necessry to be Ag COmmissioner. Not a Democrat Special Interest Lobbyist.

    That is why the people of Georgia will elect Brian Kemp whether it is out right or in a run off. He will win and he is our only hope to defeat Tommy Irvin.

    Elect Brian Kemp not Tommy Irvin, Jr (Gary Black)

  11. Romegaguy says:

    Who has voted in more Democratic primaries, Kemp or Black? I’ll give you a hint, it is the horse fancier…

  12. landman says:

    Kemp will win because he is the one who is a proven Conservative Republican Leader and this is a Republican Primary.Gary has not been there for the Republicans and Brian has.

    Gary and his supporters can jump up and down from now until the Cows come home, about Gary’s experience in Agriculture but the fact is if this were the only precursor Mr. Tommy would never be beat.

    The political calculus in this race is pretty simple,you have a guy who is a newcomer to the Party trying to win a state-wide race in a year when all of his,or for the most part of his supporters will be voting in the Democratic Gov race.

    It will probally go to a runoff and Kemp wins there and then goes on to beat Mr. Tommy’,because Gary’s people will not be able to cicle back and help in the Runoff after declaring Democrat in the Primary.I n addition I feel that Greer”s and Stricklands votes will most likely go to Kemp as these people are Republicans and will not be swayed to the Black ticket.

    This will be a case study on why the Leadership of the Party should stay out of selecting hand choosen candidates and let the Primary Process chose who the candidate is on a level playing field.

    With that said I have nothing personal against Gary,but feel strongly that Kemp is a proven product and stands a much better chance at beating Mr.Tommy and that is the end in mind here.

  13. John Silage Jr. says:

    HJ,

    You have said in the past that Gary voted for Kucinich. So, did he vote for Kucinich or Kerry? You have such good insight on how people vote in a secret ballot election. Perhaps, you should get a job with Fox or CNN helping them with exit polls. You could just sit outside and use your supernatural powers to tell everyone how people are voting.

  14. HJ Bailey says:

    Yep Silage I know a Democrat when I see and meet one and Gary is a Democrat. Once again, does Gary know to vote in the Republican Primary. DOn’t challenge me Silage because all I am going to do is point out the truth and the obvious about Gary Black(D).

    The point of this race is to get someone new opposed to Tommy Irvin, not another Tommy Irvin

  15. John Silage Jr. says:

    HJ,

    Can you please give me some evidence as to why Gary is such a big Democrat. Simply saying he is a democrat doesn’t make it so. Honestly, I would like some facts and not the same old rubbish that you have been talking the past 2 weeks.

  16. Demonbeck says:

    Another thing to ponder.

    Who has voted in more Democratic primaries?

    Gary Black
    Brian Kemp
    or
    Sonny Perdue

    The fact of the matter is that for the longest time, many Democrats in GA were more conservative than Republicans in Massachusetts.

  17. John Silage Jr. says:

    Demon,

    That is very true. Many Southern Democrats were much more conservative than New England Republicans.

  18. waterboy says:

    HJ –
    Who did you and your boyfriend southcomfort vote for on the 2004 presidential Republican preference primary??? Bush was the only name on the R ballot. What’s the point? You wasted your vote. Gary Black voted to help defeat John Kerry by picking an opponent in the Dem Presidential Preference Primary. His vote actually mattered as did mine because I did the same and so did many other Republicans.

    Gary was a leader on the ’04 Bush Farm and Ranch campaign team. Deal with it!

  19. HJ Bailey says:

    Don’t give me all this BS waterboy. It is a waste of your time. As a lobbyist, Gary Black has been sucking up to and supporting those in power because as a lobbyist, that is what you have to do. So, for over 10 years he was kissing the shoes and maybe more of Tom Murphy, Charles Walker, Tyrone Brooks and others. I can bet you that he most likely supported and voted for Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton and hell probably Walter Mondale.

    There is no excuse for voting for Kerry or whichever liberal candidate he voted for in ’04. I bet you he voted for Kerry in the general.

    Gary Black is a liberal democrat special interest lobbyist. Make excuses all you want.

    I want a leader as Ag Commissioner and not a gift basket making liberal like Gary Black.

  20. John Silage Jr. says:

    HJ,

    Will you answer my question I asked earlier? You about having actual facts about Gary being a democrat.

  21. Mike says:

    Having spoken with Gary, I can assure you that he won’t be another Tommy. Question: If Kemp takes it, will he be content with the position, or will he be off for bigger and better things in a few years?

  22. waterboy says:

    HJ – I woill take you up on every one of those bets, however, YOU are a worthless piece of crap and are not trustworthy, so a bet with you is a waste of time. Gary Black is the future of strong Republican, conservative values for Georgia and you are an idiot.

  23. debbie0040 says:

    Gary Black will win. Brian has two things working against him. He is a State Senator and Joel is his consultant. Those are two reasons most Reed people will not support him.

  24. Cotton Boll says:

    Bill –

    Interesting how you call someone else immature! Also, Kemp can’t win. Ain’t possible. It is Gary Black vs. Tommy Irvin or Tommy wins – again.

  25. debbie0040 says:

    Gary Black has the support of same AG people that have helped elect Irvin all these years. Gary will win in November and I don’t believe the poll that shows him trailing Kemp. Kemp can not win in November, Gary can.

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