IA: Cagle takes the lead.

(7/12/06) The latest InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion survey tracking Georgia’s GOP lieutenant gubernatorial primary shows little movement among undecideds but a continuing shift of voters in the direction of state Sen. Casey Cagle among those who have made up their minds.

The survey of 400 likely GOP voters conducted July 10-11, 2006, showed the following:

Cagle – 41 percent
Reed – 36 percent
Undecideds – 23 percent

Matt Towery, (syndicated columnist Creators and CEO of InsiderAdvantage, the owner of Southern Political Report), offered the following analysis:

“We have seen Ralph Reed losing ground since the middle of last week. As of this past Friday, the race was dead even at 37 percent each. But the trends continue to show decided voters moving from the Reed category to Cagle, while the undecided remains relatively high at 23 percent. In my experience, this high undecided percentage is to be expected when a race is projected to have an extremely low turnout.

“What usually happens is those who are undecided by the weekend before an election, simply are not going to vote. A word of caution: I continue to believe that Ralph Reed has an uncanny ability to turn out Christian and conservative, family values voters through his vast network of pastors and clergymen in states such as Georgia. The fact that this race is barely beyond the margin of error suggest it would be far too early to imply that Reed is headed toward defeat.

“However, I am stunned by Reed’s tepid response to the brutal but effective attacks on TV and through direct mail which have been leveled by the Cagle campaign. Ralph must pound back with a stronger message or risk such additional deterioration that even his base of loyal supporters could not make up the difference. The next 48 hours will be critical for the Reed campaign.”

42 comments

  1. BahamaBoy says:

    This latest poll was taken on Monday and Tuesday, notoriously bad days for Ralph Reed. Weekends aren’t much better. Straw polls conducted in church parking lots, however, show Ralph Reed winning by 900 percent!

  2. bowersville says:

    Towery “The next 48 hours will be critical for the Reed campaign.” Coupled with a “federal lawsuit alleging Ambramoff, Reed..engaged in fraud and racketering.” How do you climb that mountain?

  3. LINDA says:

    I would go vote early, but I’m afraid I’d get robbed in the parking lot at the Election office. I will just wait and vote at my precinct, which is in a Baptist Church.

  4. Bill Simon says:

    Didn’t Matt say previously that he thought Casey started his attack ads too late?

    Apparently, the Cagle Racing Team knows about planning and implementing a plan quite well.

    BUT, it does depend all on turnout. My guess is a lot of the absentee voters have voted for Casey. Early voting this week will have probably gone even-Steven between the two.

    Tueday is the important day. Wonder how much the Reedites will be trying to screw-up IN the polls? My guess is they will be campaigning less than 150 feet from the polls, in violation of state law.

    East Cobb will NOT be going for Ralphie, despite the attempts by Sam “About That Taxcut On Property Taxes I Promised You If You Voted For The SPLOST That I Am Now Reneging On” Olens to make Ralph out to be a hero amongst the Semetic population, it ain’t gonna play in Peoria or on Johnson’s Ferry Road.

  5. Michael C says:

    Interesting note on Olens. Reed searched high and low for him Monday night at Neil Warren’s corn boil just to get his picture taken with him. Reed slapped a sticker on him and promptly removed it after the picture. I am sure it on some type of mailer for North Cobb.

  6. Bull Moose says:

    Well, what do you expect, the Greedy Reed is now being named in a federal fraud and racketeering lawsuit from the Texas Indian tribe. The online gambling bill that Ralph so feverishly lobbied against just got passed by the House as part of their values agenda. Everyone is finding out that he lobbied to protect sweat shops, child prostitution, and forced abortions. And let’s not forget that the jury is still out on what the Fed’s are going to do or the Senate Finance Committee…

    I sure would hate to be at Reed Headquarters today… It’s hissy fit meltdown day…

  7. jsm says:

    Ralph started blasting on Gainesville radio yesterday or the day before, as if he could actually sway folks in Cagle’s hometown. Casey has responded with a really good ad, no frills, just Casey’s voice discrediting Ralph’s attacks.

  8. Bill Simon says:

    I saw the new Cagle ad, followed by the anti-Cathy Cox as by Mark taylor, followed by Reed’s “rebuttal.”

    Talk about false claims, Ralph Reed’s “researchers” think that a campaign has to pay independent contractors’ payroll taxes.

  9. BahamaBoy says:

    Just watched Cagle’s newest ad complements of the AJC’s Political Insider. Whew! Sorta takes my breath away.

    Reed is under a withering attack that grows day by day. Lawsuits are being filed against him. Congressional committees are investigating his activities. The IRS is investigating his misuse of nonprofit organizations for political activity. And he wants to be Georgia’s Lieutenant Governor and preside over the state senate in what would be his very first job as a public official.

    How DOES he sleep at night? Judging from those bags under his eyes, not very well.

  10. The Busdriver says:

    Anybody notice how Ralph quotes the same AP wire in 5 different, ahem, liberal newspapers?

  11. UnknownTruths says:

    I’m in need of a date for the Cagle Celebration next Tuesday….must be female, 2 legs not 4, and can’t dress better than I…..any takers?

  12. Bill Simon says:

    Go to the Ralph Reed celebration first, Unknown, and I’m sure you’ll be able to pick-up a girl to take back to celebrate with the Cagle Camp.

  13. debbie0040 says:

    Keep it up guys. Did you completely ignore something Towery said? Wonder why Reed’s response has been tepid? Just can’t imagine…

    “A word of caution: I continue to believe that Ralph Reed has an uncanny ability to turn out Christian and conservative, family values voters through his vast network of pastors and clergymen in states such as Georgia. The fact that this race is barely beyond the margin of error suggest it would be far too early to imply that Reed is headed toward defeat.

    “However, I am stunned by Reed’s tepid response to the brutal but effective attacks on TV and through direct mail which have been leveled by the Cagle campaign. Ralph must pound back with a stronger message or risk such additional deterioration that even his base of loyal supporters could not make up the difference. The next 48 hours will be critical for the Reed campaign.

  14. SOUTHERNCOMFORT says:

    TO ALL REEDITES: You are in the middle of NUCLEAR SUMMER enjoy… payback is HELL….

  15. Romegaguy says:

    I’ll take this one

    Debbie, the response has been tepid because your boy Ralphie and his motley band of misfits are in over their heads.

    What time is the reservation for your treat at Bones on Wednesday?

  16. debbie0040 says:

    You guys can meet me at either Reed’s Victory Party or Karen Handel’s or Gary Black’s. I plan to be celebrating at all 3

  17. SOUTHERNCOMFORT says:

    Is REED kin to CUSTER??? looks like the indians will do them both in…hahahahah I could not resist.

  18. Maurice Atkinson says:

    In just a few days voters in Georgia will have an opportunity to select a candidate for Lt. Governor. A year ago I had signed on to support Ralph Reed. Having been a long time supporter of conservative Christian values, being involved in the Republican Party and formerly an active member of the Christian Coalition he seemed to be the natural choice. However, had I known then what I know now I would have never voiced support. I have taken the initiative to explore the facts that the candidates espouse and have drawn a different conclusion. Since then , I have endorsed and worked diligently for Casey Cagle and am asking you to look at the facts and on July 18th vote Casey Cagle for Georgia’s 1st Republican Lt. Governor.

    Politics can, often times, seem negative and frustrating. People that we once hold in high esteem can and do let us down. However, there are many who desire to serve and maintain their conservative core principles and hold their allegiances accordingly. That is what I have found to be true regarding Casey Cagle and the contrary in Ralph Reed.

    The facts concerning Casey Cagle are these:

    1. In 12 years in elected office he has NEVER voted for a tax increase

    2. Cosponsored the “Woman’s Right to Know” Act (SB 77)

    3. Strong supporter of the Constitutional Amendment protecting traditional marriage (SR 595)

    4. He has volunteered for and financially supported worthy organizations such as Teen Pact, help start a Crisis Pregnancy Center in Gainesville.

    5. Helped PASS Gov. Perdue’s tough restrictions on Eminent Domain abuse (HB 1313)

    6. Protected the HOPE Scholarship (HB 1324)

    7. Helped create ESPLOST to reduce classroom trailers (SR 20/125)

    8. Passed legislation dedicating more funding to classroom instruction (SB 390)

    9. Reduce class sizes (HR 1358)

    10. Cosponsored the toughest illegal immigration legislation in the country (SB 529)

    The list goes on. My point is that Casey Cagle not only talks conservative traditional values, he has worked effectively to make a strong proactive difference in the lives of Georgians. He knows the process and has a proven track record of achievement.

    His opponent in this election, Ralph Reed, has “talked” a lot about his history “building” the Republican Party. The reality is that Ralph has worked to achieve his status by dubious means. The facts appear to be, whoever the highest bidder was Ralph seemingly worked to support them. The facts are alarming and disturbing, they are:

    1. Ralph worked to defeat 10 Conservative Republican congressmen on behalf of his client E Lottery. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/10/15/AR2005101501539.html?nav=rss_politics

    2. While running a senatorial re-election campaign for a Republican senator he simultaneously waged a negative PR campaign on behalf of another client Channel One, against his own senatorial client. http://multinationalmonitor.org/mm2006/012006/wheat.html http://www.alternet.org/story/1593/ http://www.blythe.org/nytransfer-subs/99env/Ralph_Reed_Meets_Jim_Metrock

    3. Convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff and Ralph developed an elaborate scheme to bilk money from Indian tribes and laundered the money through various non-profit groups. http://www.worldmag.com/articles/11579 http://www.worldmag.com/articles/12013 http://www.indian.senate.gov/public/_files/Report.pdf http://www.indianz.com/News/2005/010980.asp

    4. Ralph vigorously worked for his client Mitch Skandalakis for Lt. Governor in 1998, who subsequently was convicted for public corruption and subsequently disbarred from practicing law by the Georgia Supreme Court. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mitch_Skandalakis

    Now Ralph is using his best campaign asset, negativity and falsehood, to convince voters in the Republican Primary. My hope is that Georgians will recognize the deception and outright reject it.

    Casey Cagle has been endorsed by more than 300 elected officials statewide. Numerous legislators, County Commissioners, Mayors, City Councilmen, Sheriffs, and businessmen have publicly stood with Casey and have addressed audiences on his behalf.

    In this campaign Senator Cagle has laid out a specific agenda that will transform the office of Lt. Governor into a bold, conservative voice for our families – for better jobs, for lower taxes, a more efficient state government, and for excellence in our children’s education. In fact, in his Economic Opportunity Plan, he builds the link between State Government and Local Government to create efficiency and better performance. His proposals are solid and workable. He has the experience and the knowledge to move his agenda forward and if the voters approve on July 18th Georgia will be the better.

    Please join me in voting Casey Cagle, Georgia’s 1st Republican Lt. Governor, a leader we can trust.

  19. Maurice Atkinson says:

    In just a few days voters in Georgia will have an opportunity to select a candidate for Lt. Governor. A year ago I had signed on to support Ralph Reed. Having been a long time supporter of conservative Christian values, being involved in the Republican Party and formerly an active member of the Christian Coalition he seemed to be the natural choice. However, had I known then what I know now I would have never voiced support. I have taken the initiative to explore the facts that the candidates espouse and have drawn a different conclusion. Since then , I have endorsed and worked diligently for Casey Cagle and am asking you to look at the facts and on July 18th vote Casey Cagle for Georgia’s 1st Republican Lt. Governor.
    Politics can, often times, seem negative and frustrating. People that we once hold in high esteem can and do let us down. However, there are many who desire to serve and maintain their conservative core principles and hold their allegiances accordingly. That is what I have found to be true regarding Casey Cagle and the contrary in Ralph Reed.

    The facts concerning Casey Cagle are these:

    1. In 12 years in elected office he has NEVER voted for a tax increase

    2. Cosponsored the “Woman’s Right to Know” Act (SB 77)

    3. Strong supporter of the Constitutional Amendment protecting traditional marriage (SR 595)

    4. He has volunteered for and financially supported worthy organizations such as Teen Pact, help start a Crisis Pregnancy Center in Gainesville.

    5. Helped PASS Gov. Perdue’s tough restrictions on Eminent Domain abuse (HB 1313)

    6. Protected the HOPE Scholarship (HB 1324)

    7. Helped create ESPLOST to reduce classroom trailers (SR 20/125)

    8. Passed legislation dedicating more funding to classroom instruction (SB 390)

    9. Reduce class sizes (HR 1358)

    10. Cosponsored the toughest illegal immigration legislation in the country (SB 529)

    The list goes on. My point is that Casey Cagle not only talks conservative traditional values, he has worked effectively to make a strong proactive difference in the lives of Georgians. He knows the process and has a proven track record of achievement.

    His opponent in this election, Ralph Reed, has “talked” a lot about his history “building” the Republican Party. The reality is that Ralph has worked to achieve his status by dubious means. The facts appear to be, whoever the highest bidder was Ralph seemingly worked to support them. The facts are alarming and disturbing, they are:

    1. Ralph worked to defeat 10 Conservative Republican congressmen on behalf of his client E Lottery. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/10/15/AR2005101501539.html?nav=rss_politics

    2. While running a senatorial re-election campaign for a Republican senator he simultaneously waged a negative PR campaign on behalf of another client Channel One, against his own senatorial client. http://multinationalmonitor.org/mm2006/012006/wheat.html http://www.alternet.org/story/1593/ http://www.blythe.org/nytransfer-subs/99env/Ralph_Reed_Meets_Jim_Metrock

    3. Convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff and Ralph developed an elaborate scheme to bilk money from Indian tribes and laundered the money through various non-profit groups. http://www.worldmag.com/articles/11579 http://www.worldmag.com/articles/12013 http://www.indian.senate.gov/public/_files/Report.pdf http://www.indianz.com/News/2005/010980.asp

    4. Ralph vigorously worked for his client Mitch Skandalakis for Lt. Governor in 1998, who subsequently was convicted for public corruption and subsequently disbarred from practicing law by the Georgia Supreme Court. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mitch_Skandalakis

    Now Ralph is using his best campaign asset, negativity and falsehood, to convince voters in the Republican Primary. My hope is that Georgians will recognize the deception and outright reject it.

    Casey Cagle has been endorsed by more than 300 elected officials statewide. Numerous legislators, County Commissioners, Mayors, City Councilmen, Sheriffs, and businessmen have publicly stood with Casey and have addressed audiences on his behalf.

    In this campaign Senator Cagle has laid out a specific agenda that will transform the office of Lt. Governor into a bold, conservative voice for our families – for better jobs, for lower taxes, a more efficient state government, and for excellence in our children’s education. In fact, in his Economic Opportunity Plan, he builds the link between State Government and Local Government to create efficiency and better performance. His proposals are solid and workable. He has the experience and the knowledge to move his agenda forward and if the voters approve on July 18th Georgia will be the better.

    Please join me in voting Casey Cagle, Georgia’s 1st Republican Lt. Governor, a leader we can trust.

  20. Bull Moose says:

    Okay, if Reed is voted in by the primary voters, it might be time to do a gut check on where our party is headed, cause it certainly isn’t going to be victory…

    However, I feel confident that even some of the ardent Reed supporters throughout the state, when in the privacy of their voting machine, are going to cast votes for Casey Cagle. They will do this because, they, like everyone in the state, can’t possibly imgaine more Reed BS throughout the remainder of the summer and into the fall.

    A vote for Reed is a vote for a Democratic Leadership Team.

  21. GOPeach says:

    Okay REED supporters..

    Stay true to who you are!!! Rock Solid!
    REED ROCKS!!

    If you know Ralph Reed and you understand
    what is really going on here… Stand by your man!

    All these slanderous accusations are frivilous and
    without merit.

    The truth is… most REED supporters are not
    on blogs!!! I and a few others like Debbie are an acception. Most Reed supporters are knocking on
    doors and calling fiends to GOTV! They are
    woorking, not ranting!!!!

    There is a quiet army out there working harder than
    you guys know….

    If you do not see Reed people posting… it
    is because they are out campaigning. At least
    that is what my friends are all doing. They announced
    at our midweek Bible Study tonight ( 5,000 people )
    to go vote tomorrow!!!!! I spoke to many and
    encouraged them to vote for Ralpg Reed. Not one
    person said they believed the media and the
    slander…

    We will stand by REED all the way!!

    If you are undecided – Just vote for REED.
    He is strong and he will FIGHT like a bulldog!
    He will not let up. He is relentless.
    Nobody will out work him!

  22. GOPeach says:

    Ralph Reed has vision!
    Ralph Reed will help Georgia win the
    bids for big businesses. The economy will thrive
    in Georgia.

    Ralph has class. Ralph has brains.
    Ralph is articulate. Ralph is a hard worker.
    Ralph is focused.

    Ralph is going to win! You will see.
    Ralph Reed is going to be the next Lt. Gov.!

    He is getting ready to run against Hecht.
    That is where his strategies are being
    directed now.

    REED ’06

  23. GOPeach says:

    Bil –

    You are mistaken.

    Ralph is winning in EAST COBB!!!

    He has Johnson’s Ferry Rd and Shallowford.
    He has the Semetic Community. My sister in law
    is Jewish and all her friends at Etz Chiam
    are voting for Ralph Reed because he has brains!

    The Semetic people know about being persecuted
    for their beliefs. They have a long history o
    this thing. They relate to Ralph!

    Politically, Ralph is quite libertarian.
    That is appealing to the Semetic Community.
    they understand that!

    Ralph has been a friend to the Jewish community
    for a long time.

    If Sam Olens removed a sticker, it is because
    candidates and elected officls do not wear
    each other’s stickers in public. Maybe for a
    picture but that is all.

    Don’t read things into this!

    Ralph is winning.

  24. GOPeach says:

    Debbie-

    I will be at The Reed Victory Party also!
    We will have a lot to celebrate!

    I will have Ralph make an announcement-
    If you are a blogger raise your hand! lol
    I will look for you.

  25. bowersville says:

    GOPeach,
    Tom Delay claimed the same thing about frivilous and unfounded accusations. Why do these leaders make themselves so vulnerable to the left by their own actions? Is it because they are standing for right? The honorable thing for Reed to do now (just my opinion) is to get out of the race a stop putting his supporters through the meat grinder of their own conscience.

  26. debbie0040 says:

    Bowersville, Tom Delay had two of his aides indicted. How many of Reed’s aides have been indicted? This race has changed a lot of people….

    GaPeach, I am making phone calls for Reed and plan on going door to door this weekend. I will also be at the GOTV rally at Jim Miller Park this afternoon.

    Bill, as far as East Cobb, you have not been keeping up with how Cobb County has changed. The largest GOP precincts in Cobb County are in the WEST Cobb area not East Cobb area. Check it yourself.

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