(7/12/06) The latest InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion survey tracking Georgia’s GOP lieutenant gubernatorial primary shows little movement among undecideds but a continuing shift of voters in the direction of state Sen. Casey Cagle among those who have made up their minds.
The survey of 400 likely GOP voters conducted July 10-11, 2006, showed the following:
Cagle – 41 percent
Reed – 36 percent
Undecideds – 23 percent
Matt Towery, (syndicated columnist Creators and CEO of InsiderAdvantage, the owner of Southern Political Report), offered the following analysis:
“We have seen Ralph Reed losing ground since the middle of last week. As of this past Friday, the race was dead even at 37 percent each. But the trends continue to show decided voters moving from the Reed category to Cagle, while the undecided remains relatively high at 23 percent. In my experience, this high undecided percentage is to be expected when a race is projected to have an extremely low turnout.
“What usually happens is those who are undecided by the weekend before an election, simply are not going to vote. A word of caution: I continue to believe that Ralph Reed has an uncanny ability to turn out Christian and conservative, family values voters through his vast network of pastors and clergymen in states such as Georgia. The fact that this race is barely beyond the margin of error suggest it would be far too early to imply that Reed is headed toward defeat.
“However, I am stunned by Reed’s tepid response to the brutal but effective attacks on TV and through direct mail which have been leveled by the Cagle campaign. Ralph must pound back with a stronger message or risk such additional deterioration that even his base of loyal supporters could not make up the difference. The next 48 hours will be critical for the Reed campaign.”