On McBerry

As Jeff notes, Perdue et al expect McBerry to get about 12% of the primary vote. I wouldn’t peg the genuine flaggers at more than 4-6% of the vote in the Republican primary. If you agree with me on that, can we reasonably extrapolate that a large percentage of what McBerry will get is a vote to register a complaint about the governor?

I was talking with a friend about this earlier and he said he’s felt for a while that Perdue’s problems do not stem from a problem with the electorate as a whole, but rather disenchantment in the base. If McBerry does get 12% of the vote, I think that’s probably true and I wonder if it could bite the governor in a closely fought general election.

14 comments

  1. Jeff Emanuel says:

    I think that that is exactly why it is good for Perdue to have a primary opponent. This way, folks who are disenchanted with Perdue, or who have a grievance of some sort against him or his policy decisions, can “exercise” their anger or frustration by voting for his opponent in a basically uncontested primary election.

    This allows voters to register their complaint with Perdue without doing any real damage to him, and to be able to go on to vote for him in November with a clear conscience.

  2. buzzbrockway says:

    I don’t think 12% for McBerry is a problem. I agree with Jeff about people expressing their grievances in this primary. Every politician has his detractors – even among his base and Perdue is no exception.

    Incidently, at the Gwinnett Glows event on the 4th, two gentlemen were working the McBerry booth. Both were recently members of the Gwinnett GOP and both helped Sonny in 2002. One of them told me he’d support Sonny against a Democrat, but wanted to send a message about the flag. I expect many McBerry supporters will return to Perdue in the fall.

  3. GrandOleDawg says:

    It’s never good to have a primary opponent. That’s absurd. You think people that have issues with the governor will just forget them on July 19th just because they got to burn a vote against him on July 18th. The people who are “disenchanted” with him in July, but “go on to vote for him in November,” would have voted for him in November anyway. They hate Democrats more that they love the old flag.
    That doesn’t make political sense, that doesn’t even make psychological sense. The last thing you want when you are trying to win in November is a 12% (and I’m still not convinced it’ll be that much) speed bump in November.

  4. LINDA says:

    I predict that Cox will beat Taylor in the primary, and that she will go on to become the first woman governor of Georgia because I believe that the 12% for McBerry will either not vote in November or cast a vote for the Libertarian candidate. Women will turn out to vote for a woman that have not voted in an election before, and Mrs. Cox will most certainly get the vote of the young idealistic college graduates that think government is the gift that keeps on giving.

    Jobs have been lost in Georgia, high paying jobs and people are angry at Governor Perdue.

  5. LINDA says:

    Don’t forget that we got an influx of Katrina refugees that will only have to produce whatever to vote, what 18 different types of identifying information, and these are the same folks that voted for Governor Blanco in LA.

  6. LINDA says:

    Most of those on the flag side are actully Democrats or the ones that I ran into when campaigning. You are looking at statistics assuming that all counties in Georgia are wealthy like those northern counties. People in the deep south poor counties are not Republicans. Remember they were the ones that kept Georgia Democrat for what 130 years. Perdue only got many of their votes because of the flag.

  7. LINDA says:

    I remember seeing many cars with the old state flag on their bumpers going in and out of Warner Robins Air Force Base, when he ran for Governor. Governor Perdue ran on the tail of President Bush in an era of patriotism of “your either with us or against us.” That kind of momenturm is not in this year’s election.

  8. LINDA says:

    The choices in this election are like asking a death row inmate, do you want ice cream or pizza for your last meal. Audios Amigos.

  9. Dan says:

    The reason that Ray McBerry is getting 12% is simple, his name will be on the ballot first. My gerbil could run and get 12% in a primary against a sitting governor, it’s really not that difficult.

    Anyone who does any true digging on McBerry knows just what a nutcase he is. He believes that it’s the will of God for the South to Succeed again. He’s endorsed by the American White Knights of the Ku Klux Klan. He’s a freaking lunatic. Will people vote for him just because they’re pissed of with Sonny, sure. Will that cost Sonny either the primary or the general? No.

  10. Bill Simon says:

    HOLY CRAP!

    Go to that Website for the American KKKK and download their “flyers” to read.

    I did their “Stand.doc” and here’s an example:

    “Are you opposed to residential “blockbusting

  11. Bill Simon says:

    Okay, okay…I’ll do ONE more quote from their online flyer:

    Are your answers YES To The Following Questions:

    (D) That we have and obligation to generations of White babies yet to be born to provide them a safe and secure White society in which they can grow, mate, and develop a greater civilization than we have today; as our forefathers protected our bloodline by enforcing the separation of the different races which is the only reason we are White today?

    Pretty racy…err, racist stuff.

  12. shep1975 says:

    I agree with Dan. Sonny only has a problem if McBerry gets 30% or more. Your average incumbent will lose 20-30% to any generic name, so long as that name isn’t something like “Charles Manson.”

    Even “Gerbil Perdue” will take that many against Sonny. 12% is a stronger than usual showing. If Sonny gets that, he’s in excellent shape for the general election.

    On a side note, if your name is “Charles Manson” and you plan on running for office someday, then at least go by “Chuck Manson.”

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