More IA Polling: GOP SoS and Ag. races.

(7/10/06) New InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion Poll – 500 sample; likely Republican primary voters; weighted for age and gender; margin of error +/-4%; Conducted July 5-6, 2006

Charlie Bailey: 11 percent
Karen Handel: 38 percent
Eric Martin: 1 percent
Bill Stephens: 26 percent
Don’t Know/Undecided: 24 percent

GOP Agriculture Commissioner Primary (sample, weighting, dates are same as above)

Black: 28 percent
Greer: 9 percent
Kemp: 29 percent
Strickland: 4 percent
Don’t Know/Undecided: 30 percent


  1. HSC Republican says:

    If there are any Stephens supporters out there? What is his plan if he is elected? Does he have anything other then having Mckenny arrested? Is this man all sound bite? Cause after hearing his Saturday I think he is! He thinks he should be elected because Zell has endorsed him!

  2. George Allen 08 says:

    Substitute Reed in for Cagle and you might have the right list there HSC.

    Though it’ll take a run-off for both SOS and Ag.

  3. jsm says:

    Glad to see Kemp doing well. I was concerned about his campaign early on, but he may just have what it takes.

  4. waterboy says:

    Gary Black dominated the Gwinnett and Cobb straw polls…..if Kemp had any strength, he would have done much better in those metro polls. Black wins….good chance he won’t even need a runoff.

  5. Mike says:

    Jeez Bailey..Give it a rest. However, there is something to be said for staying on message. My take is that Strickland’s supporters would be more likely to go with Gary because of his ag. experience. No clue on the Greer masses.

  6. landman says:

    There will be a runoff in the Ag Race and Kemp will win,and go on to beat Mr.Tommy in November,by a much larger margin than many think.

    Waterboy,those straw poles are useless.

  7. JRM2016 says:

    This poll still shows Handel with a 12 point lead over Stephens. If the undecideds just break evenly between Handel and Stephens, she wins without a runoff.

    Gov.: Perdue
    Lt. Gov.: Too Close to Call
    SOS: Handel
    AG: Runoff, followed by Gary Black victory

    By the way, I voted early today and there were no problems, lines, etc. I’d be interested to hear if anyone else has voted early and if they have had any trouble.

  8. John Silage Jr. says:


    If Kemp wins, Tommy Irvin will be re-elected. I will support Brian simply because we need new blood in the department, but he is not as qualified as Gary. To be honest, I am in contact with the ag community daily, and I have not heard one person say that they are voting for Kemp. Its either, “I am supporting Gary” or “I am supporting the Commissioner”. Of course, the election won’t be determined by the ag community in the primary, but they will be the deciding factor in the general and Gary is the only person that can peel votes from the Commissioner. I have nothing against Brian, he is a great Senator-I just don’t think he is the best man for the job.

  9. Groseclose says:

    Very well said John! Your commentary is right on point and the Kemp folks just don’t get it.

    Kemp should be worried! These numbers show the race is a dead heat, yet Kemp went on the TV nearly a month ago. Black didn’t hit the airwaves until after this poll was completed. Black wins this primary; the only question that remains is whether Greer and Strickland recieve enough votes to force a run-off.

  10. HJ Bailey says:

    Haha. Yall absolutely amaze me. Kemp will win the thing out right or he will win the run off. He is the only candidate who can defeat Tommy Irvin. Irvin would destroy Gary black and the commissioner prays everyday that Kemp doesn’t win this primary because he knows he is done when Brian wins.

    The people of Georgia will speak soon enough and I believe Brian will be victorious.

    How many of you have even seen goobers commercial?

    Oh and you may want to make sure Gary knows that he needs to vote in the republican primary this time around.

  11. John Silage Jr. says:


    Why must you act in such a childish manner? I am stating the truth. I have heard no one say they are voting for Brian Kemp-well except for his college kids in Athens. I honestly have not heard one person say anything about Kemp. Its all been Gary. Now, Gary could very well get beat in this primary, but it will only be because of the metro vote. I am simply stating that the ag community likes Gary a heck of a lot more than Brian. It’s a fact. However, it by no means that Kemp will get beat by Gary. It also doesn’t mean that Kemp wouldn’t make a decent Ag commissioner.

    HJ-Can you accept these simple truths without making some childish junior high comment?

  12. Jeff Emanuel says:

    John, I’m an Athens guy, and can say that Kemp’s got a good bit of support here in the community; he’s got some signs up now, and there are no Black signs.

    It goes without saying that signs don’t vote, but it’s not just college kids here who like Kemp. With this being his home turf, though, it’s expected. I still see what most others do: a two-man runoff, and a decision being made then.

  13. 4ofspades says:

    I’ll have to admit that I am stealing this from a poster on Political Insider, but it’s too good to pass up.

    By formerstephensguy

    July 10, 2006 04:51 PM | Link to this

    CobbGOPer – You forgot to mention that he was a protege of James Carville

    Bill Shipp May, 21, 2000

  14. John Silage Jr. says:


    I agree, I too reside in luny land 9 months out the year. Kemp has good support up there. I went to Athens a few weeks ago, and there are plenty of his signs between Macon and Athens. However, I haven’t seen many Kemp signs down in South Georgia nor have I even heard anyone that is supporting him down here. It is true that South Georgia will not have a big turnout in the GOP Primary, primarily because so many local races down here are determined on the Dem side. The ag community appears to be solidly behind Black, but as I have stated before that doesn’t mean he will win next Tuesday. There are many former Irvin supporters behind Black. I am curious to know if any of them will back Kemp if he wins the primary.

  15. jackson says:

    No Kemp Signs in South Georgia?

    Maybe Gary Black folks should stop stealing Kemp signs and putting Blacks in the same spots. They did it on my neighbors property and trust me, if he would have caught the guys….well, it wouldnt be funny.

Comments are closed.