Somewhat Sworn to Secrecy

Friends, I’m somewhat sworn to secrecy, but I hear there is a poll floating around privately from an independent group in Washington that shows the Cagle v. Reed race within the margin of error of +/- 3%, with Reed not quite two full points above Cagle when individuals are pushed to decide which of the two they would vote for. Otherwise there is still a huge undecided number.

That’s all the details I’m able to give out.

30 comments

  1. StevePerkins says:

    You know what? Screw it. I don’t know why I let myself get sucked into this race, given the following:

    1) If Cagle ends Ralph Reed’s political career as a candidate on the 18th, I’m happy.

    2) If Reed wins the primary, moderate Libertarian nominee Allen Buckley should get a nice uptick in votes, and the philosophical purist in me is happy.

    3) Greg Hecht should go on to win and keep the office in Democratic hands, and since COMPLETE one-party rule is bad, I’m happy. I can allow myself to be happy since…

    4) …the Lt. Governor job is pretty meaningless in the first place. Funny how it is that the less important an office is, or the less difference there is between candidates, the more vicious and entertaining the races are?

  2. GOPeach says:

    Let’s make a Pro’s and Con’s List to help us all decide.

    (Feel free to add rational points) Keep it simple!

    Reed Pros:

    1. Visonary
    2. Strong Grassroots Voter base
    3. Name Reconitions
    4. Very supportive wife JoAnne
    5. Supportive Pastor & Church
    6. Eagle Scout
    7. Hard worker
    8. Went to Emory
    9. Has a PhD – Hiistory Major
    10. Interned with Lt. Gov. Zell Miller
    11. Founder of the Christian Coalition
    12. President of the GA Republican Party
    13. Author
    14. Excellent Speaker
    15. Owns a successful marketing business
    16. Strategist
    17. Father of 4
    18. Kids are in public school

    Reed Cons:

    1. Never served in an elected seat prior
    2. Has bad press

    Cagle Pros:

    1. Served 12 years in State Senate
    2. Has successful business
    3. Has State Senate support

    Cagle Cons:

    1. Has focused on Reed more than accomplishments
    2. Has ran a neagtive canmpaign
    3. No college education

  3. northside elephant says:

    Steve,

    The powers that were stripped from the LT Gov after the Republican takeover in 2002 will be restored when Cagle wins.

    As Debbie (Reed’s blog director) has pointed out, if Reed wins then he will seek retribution against the Republican Senate caucus for supporting Cagle. In that case “Lt. Gov. Reed” would be even more powerless than Mark Taylor.

    A “Lt. Gov. Reed” would have the power to lead the pledge of allegiance in the morning…that’s about it!

  4. Jeff Emanuel says:

    That’s very interesting, and seems to somewhat back up the analysis of Washington Times writer Stacy McCain, who observed:

    Reed’s internal polling must have shown something similar [to Cagle’s
    internals showing a lead]. If Reed felt confident he was romping to an easy
    victory, he never would have launched such a relentlessly negative campaign in a
    GOP primary, especially because Cagle is supported by three-quarters of the
    Republican senators — whom Reed would have to work with if he wins the
    lieutenant-governor’s job.

    This is still the first non-internal I’ve heard of which show’s anything other than a Reed lead which extends beyond the margin of error. If this is anywhere near accurate, then GOTV will be the absolute decider on the 18th. If Reed can turn out his “grassroots army,” and can keep the undecideds undecided, then he should take it; however, if the level of undecideds dips dramatically in the next 10 days, and the numbers at the polls are larger, it appears that Cagle may walk away with the nomination.

  5. UGAMatthew says:

    Haha, that’s definitely a way to look at Boo.
    I had that thought a while ago too in the discussion about how close this race is getting. If Ralph and his name are doing anything for his campaign, they’ve already done it and is ain’t lookin’ good.

  6. debbie0040 says:

    Northside, I never said Reed would seek retribution. I said they would have a lot to answer for. The State Senators have toned down their anti Reed rhetoric quite a bit in the past few weeks. They have had to face angry constinuents that support Reed.

    I can tell you that I have heard from a good many Reed supporters that refuse to vote for a State Senator for SOS or AG race. Some have said they will not vote for their State Senator period in the primary or November. If you attended either of the straw poll in Gwinnett or Cobb, you would have seen a good many Reed supporters walking around with Reed, Handel, and Black stickers on.

    That letter that was sent out is having repercussions.

    Jeff, Reed has always said it would be close. His campaign has never thought they would “romp to victory”. Even if their internal polling had Reed ahead the margin of error, they would be somewhat foolish not to go negative against Cagle considering the volatile electorate. I think they are taking it too easy on Cagle and are somewhat holding back.

    McCain apparently is not aware of the letter the State Senators sent out asking Reed to step down because he also mentions people were afraid to criticize Reed. After that letter, the State Senators have no right to criticize Reed or anyone else for going after Cagle. The State Senators have a good number of constinuents in their districts that support Reed. If they try to fight Reed once he is elected, then they will face the wrath of Reed voters in their districts.

    I have spoken to different GOP voters in different counties. None knew who I supported. They say they don’t know who to believe as far as the campaign ads and they will not vote.

  7. Smillican says:

    Jeff E – didn’t you say you were ‘sposta be indifferent to this race? Maybe my memory fails me, but if not, you need to go back to acting school.

  8. debbie0040 says:

    smillican, it is to our advantage for them to actually believe Cagle is ahead in the polls. Let the truth hit them on July 18th 🙂

  9. larry smith says:

    Hey, Seth … do you have an actual job these days or are you still picking up Cecil’s dry cleaning for him?

  10. Philly says:

    Man, i just read where the Southern Party of Georgia endorsed Cagle. That is the group that blasts President Bush and Gov. Perdue. That on top of a David Duke loving racist like Linda and you guys are batting 1000. I saw where Southern Voice, the gay web site also had encouraged gays to cross over and vote for Cagle. Let’s see also George Soros left wing groups also call for Reed’s defeat. Man, you Cagle guys are in great company.

    If Cagle wins all these groups can claim victory.

  11. GOPeach says:

    Philly-

    I agree with you.

    At first, I was very undecided with the Lt. Gov. race.
    I liked Cagle and Reed.

    Cagle had experience in the Senate.
    Reed had experience State Wide with the Party.

    It was 50-50 to me … either one. As long as they had
    an (R) beside their name.

    But when I saw how the gays were planning to vote in the
    GOP Primary for Cagle, hoping to get Reed out of the way…
    I woke up to the fact that Reed was a threat to the extreem left. Why would they bother?

    I started to see this just this morning actually. Then I read your post!

    Now I understand Black Voter. He is mobilizing the blacks
    to go to the polls to oppose the gays. This is a huge issue among the black community.

    The puzzle peices are coming togther now.

    Tonight is the Debate on Channel 8. Let’s all watch it
    and see what happens.

    I am leaning toward Reed now, so is my husband, and college
    aged sons. They say Reed is the choice at UGA and GA Tech.

  12. GrandOleDawg says:

    Interesting poll, but who really didn’t expect this thing to tighten down at the end? Erick, can you disclose when this was taken?

    As far as Reed’s campaign “reacting” to Cagle’s internals that have him ahead…that’s asinine. No one (not even Cagle himself) can honestly say that they believe Casey to be nearly double digits up, when every other poll recently has had him down. Close, yes, but down none the less. Both camps are running negative ads because they know that is what moves votes. Reed is far to smart of a campaigner to scrap his strategy this late to react to some poll put out by his opponent that flies in the face of every other poll taken since the race began.

    As far as Jeff’s analysis of the undecideds…it seems I’ve read something simliar elsewhere. Jeff, you would do great in a spelling bee. You’re ability to regurgitate someone else’s analysis is uncanny. (And btw….every close race is won by GOTV, it’s proud that you are at least learning the lingo, tho)

  13. Brian from Ellijay says:

    Here are a few that you left out GOPeach

    Cagle Pros:

    1. Conservative
    2. Strong Grassroots Voter base
    3. Proven record
    4. Very supportive wife
    5. Supportive Pastor & Church
    6. 2/3s of the Senate agrees that Cagle should be President of the Senate
    7. Hard worker
    8. Went to Georgia Southern
    9. Started a business very young
    10. Started another successful business
    11. Elected when he was 28
    12. 12 yrs of conservative experience
    13. Athlete
    14. Excellent Speaker
    15. Proud Father
    16. Father of 3
    17. Kids are in public school
    18. Acheived Sucess, and now wants to give back.

    Reed Cons:

    1. Never served in an elected seat prior
    2. Has made bad descisions
    3. National Controversial Target
    4. Made Millions selling his connections and Influence
    5. Betrayed Millions in the Faith Community

  14. northside elephant says:

    “Never served in an elected seat prior”

    Reed will be another casualty in a long, long line of rich businessmen without elected experience that have failed in a race for statewide office.

    There has NEVER been a LT. Gov. elected in the southeast without legislative experience. Many have tried though.

  15. LINDA says:

    Go Peach,

    Can you please tell everyone where a Lt. Governor must have earned a college degree according to the Georgia Constitution? From me reading some of these comments, all I see is that many of you did not learn a thing from attendint college. I am not surprised with the emphasis at UGA these days being on being the party college of the Southeast. I have already forgot more than most of you have learned, and I would put my 91 year old grandmother in a contest of wits with you anyday.

  16. LINDA says:

    I’ll educate some of you youngens on a perfect example of educational elitism. You see we have this world class manufacturer of cigarettes that was once based in Bibb County that generate a ripple effect of over $400 million dollars in the middle Georgia economy. The machinists and mechanics that kept the million dollar machines going made Brown and Williamson Tobacco Corporation so much revenue that at one time they were in the top ten on the Fortune 500 list.

    Then this smart engineer named Dr. Jewell became the manufacturing CEO of B&W and according to my husband’s boss made a comment in a supervisors meeting “if you aren’t an engineer you don’t deserve to breathe the air at this plant.” not verbatum, I was not there. Well all of these smart machinists and mechanics that did not hold the coveted piece of paper from an engineering school were walked out the door on Black Friday. Things went downhill from that day forward. And you see where Brown and Williamson is today merged with RJR. Of course stupid politicians that had greed in their minds taxed them out of existence, too.

  17. debbie0040 says:

    Northside, I doubt your statements. There are two in Alabama now that are trying to be elected Lt. Governor and neither one have had legislative experience. Lucy Baxley on the Dem side and George Wallace Jr. on the GOP side. Wallace is in a runoff n the GOP Primary. Neiter have served in the state legislature.

    Jim Folsom, Jr was elected Lt. Governor of Alabama without having served in the legislature. Isn’t Alabama considered part of the southeast? I know there have been other instances in Louisiana as well as other states in the Southeast. I look forward to researching this further to see just how wrong you are….

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Folsom,_Jr.

  18. northside elephant says:

    Debbie,

    I should have said previous elected experience in the Southeast. (not just legislative experience)

    In Georgia though there has only been one Lt. Gov. elected without prior legislative experience…but he had first been governor. Do you know who it is?

    By any measure candidates for a major office without previous elected experience are long-shots.

  19. Bill Simon says:

    People at Georgia Tech have BRAINS and will not be supporting Ralph Reed.

    As far as people at UGA, I cannot answer nor predict which direction they will go in this race. First, I guess, they have to wait to sober-up…

  20. shep1975 says:

    Lynn Westmoreland did not graduate from College, but he’s supporting Ralph. I don’t see where college either way is an extra benefit or detractor.

    Most of the YRs seem to be supporting Cagle in the metro area and Columbus.

    Reed tends to have more YR support on the Coast with the Savannah and Camden County YRs.

    I know some CR clubs that are overwhelmingly Cagle while others are overwhelming Reed.

    I also know a few YR leaders who put together a fundraiser for Cagle aimed at young professionals and brought in $60K for Cagle.

    As State Chairman of the YRs, I know Cagle has supported us by contributing more than $500 while Reed has given little more than excuses to the YRs.

    As someone who quietly and privately backed Reed immediately after my boss pulled out of the race, despite my boss’s endorsement of Cagle; who talking one-on-one with Ralph, worked to afford him every opportunity to speak, assist in financial and non-financial ways, campaign, etc., just to hear every reason why he didn’t have time to be bothered, I have to make a decision based on who I think will be most supportive to the success of the YR organization and our 500+ members throughout Georgia.

    For someone who claims to care about the grassroots of the party, it saddens me to say I no longer see that in Reed.

    I have stayed on the sidelines publicly in this debate, and while I still feel that “may the best candidate win,” I have a much different view on who that person is than I did when all of this started out.

  21. rtwingmom says:

    I meet Reed once and as a woman I just have to say, I can not vote for a man that is smaller than me. (no I am not a big woman)
    He just seems so whimpy.

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