IA Poll

Thanks to those who answered my request for the Insider Advantage poll and commentary. The results and comments by Matt Towery on the SoS race were posted previously and here are the other results:

Cox Closes Gap; Handel Has Significant Lead; Wise Running Strong

(7/3/06) An InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion Poll conducted June 28-30 indicates that Secretary of State Cathy Cox has narrowed the race between herself and the frontrunner, Lt. Gov. Mark Taylor for the Democratic nomination for governor of Georgia.

The survey of 500 likely Democratic voters was weighted for age, gender, and race. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percent.

Q. If the primary election for the Democratic nomination for governor of Georgia were held today, would you vote for…

Cathy Cox – 41 percent
Mark Taylor – 47 percent
Don’t Know/No Opinion – 12 percent

InsiderAdvantage CEO and nationally syndicated columnist (Creators Syndicate) Matt Towery notes: “This poll is both good news and bad for Cox. The good news is that she has made significant gains among males and white voters in general. The bad news is that she still trails Taylor among African-American respondents at the exact same level as in our poll of mid June, when Taylor led overall 45 percent to 33 percent and among blacks 65 percent to 35 percent.

“In the most recent poll, Taylor led among African Americans by 63 percent to Cox’s 37 percent, statistically no change.”

Towery continues, “Where this is good news for Cox is in her now significant lead among white voters. Interestingly, Cox and Taylor still split the overall female vote virtually evenly, but black females lean towards Taylor, with whites in Cox’s corner.

“Cox’s dilemma is that she may never take Taylor down unless she moves black votes into her column. But to do so might risk the rapid lead she has developed among whites.

For Taylor, it now appears that engaging Cox in attack ads might have opened the door for Cox to appear a more viable candidate.

“This race will obviously turn on the content of the last few weeks’ worth of ads and who turns out to vote. There is some evidence that turnout among white voters might be higher than initially anticipated. However, blacks usually make up at least half of a Democratic primary in Georgia. Thus, Cox must move black voters or Taylor in the closing days may accelerate his lead. As of today, however, this is a true horse race, just outside being statistically dead even.

And this:

Q. If the primary election for the Republican nomination for the Public Service Commission were held today, would you vote for:

Newt Nickell: 17 percent
Stan Wise: 49 percent
Undecided: 34 percent

Towery: “Nickell may get a little name identification ‘clutter’ by having the GOP name of ‘Newt,’ and he has been a part of a strong group of activists. However, the numbers suggest that a nominal campaign effort by Wise will easily secure him the nomination. The GOP rarely turns out statewide incumbents and these numbers suggest this will be the case.”

7 comments

  1. GetReal says:

    Assuming this poll is accurate, it’s bad news for Cox. It’s one thing to be down four when no one is near 50%. If this is accurate, Taylor needs no more than one out of four undecided voters to go for him to win.

    Additionally, Taylor is still rising toward 50% even when she’s throwing everything she has at him.

  2. truerblue says:

    So–this posting says she’s still trailing him with African American voters…..bet you a buck that’s all about to change–no I’ll bet you two. PS: GetReal–“she ain’t thrown nothing yet!”

  3. Melb says:

    I actually think Cox is slipping with African Americans after witnessing AA reactions to Taylor. They know who he is. One family got together with him in Grant Park and did his commercial/campaign slogan while he was walking around greeting people. All the flyers I passed out, not one African American said, “No thanks, I’m voting for Cox.” They did say, “This is the big guy, right?” and I said yes and most said “Oh yeah, he has my support.” It seems to me Cox support is a bunch of metro, pretentious, yuppies.

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