I have a few thoughts on the Strategic Vision Poll.
First thought is that the sample number and margin of error makes this a solid poll. Strategic Vision also rotates names so the sample is improved.
This poll follows in the same trend we’ve seen. Casey has yet to be ahead of Ralph, but he keeps inching closer. Ralph’s unfavorables far outweigh his favorables, but Casey has a very high undecided number.
Interestingly, Saxby is only at 50% favorable with Isakson ahead of him. Perdue looks good as do Taylor and Cox, with Taylor having a small edge over Cox. What I find very interesting is that Perdue is doing better against Cox than Taylor in this poll — something that flies in the face of conventional wisdom.
As it shapes up right now, I think Perdue is solid and Taylor probably is too. I’d give the edge to Ralph — with 15% undecided, he needs less than Cagle to get over 50%. However, while I think he has an edge, it is a damn small edge. Let’s face it — Reed is a known quantity and Cagle is not. A heck of a lot of the undecideds will probably jump to Cagle, given the high unfavorables for Ralph.
While Ralph has the edge, he clings to it by his fingernails. The next few weeks should be very, very interesting.
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Does anyone know if they poll likely voters or just registered voters?
Bullmoose, Cagle has not had to face an anal exam yet. Can you give me the info and number of times Cagle abstained from voting on legislation that directly effected the banking industry? I would love to see that .
Eric Johnson definitely does not have track record of being weak and caving in as Cagle does.
Hey Debbie, did you know that Ralph Reed drives a BMW but leases a truck to make folks think he’s a common man?
Yeah, he’s all about image…
Oh, and it’s Ralph Reed’s campaign strategy to spread absolute lies about his opponents (see Taylor and McCain).
Well here’s a lie about Ralph… Ralph’s ethical and a moral leader for Georgia’s future. He’ll take the state budget and gambal it online in a game of Poker and triple it in one hand… HAHAHAH!!!
gamble not gambal… Damn this thing needs spell check…
Debbie – likely.
Bull Moose,
If you have the latest Google toolbar it has a spellchecker built in
“When smoking is allowed in public, it affects non smokers as well. Have you ever heard about second hand smoke?”
Wow, Debbie, I agree with you on something.
Debbie,
How long have you lived in Georgia?
Debbie,
What is the diffrence between Casey giving to Taylor and Johnson giving to Taylor? Also is Sonny and the Senate Republicans liberal because of the ad Ralph put out? I have been asking this question all day, yet no anwser….typical!
Debbie,,,, please file an ethics complaint. In fact, prepare a brief, call a darn press confernce and lodge your complaint.
You have yet to give “1″ instance where there has been impropriety.
Nothing but smear and innuendo….
eem2006,
Apparently debbie was born yesterday, so the answer is “one day.”
Debbie, show hard proof that Cagle used his office to personally enrich himself or that he increased his personal wealth in any unethical way–not just hearsay or circumstantial evidence. If you have some real proof, there needs to be a legal investigation.
Regarding the smoking ban, Republicans took away the rights of smokers without even entertaining the possibility of another workable solution. That’s not what I believe Republicans should stand for. As an HVAC engineer, I know that legislation could have been passed to protect the rights of smokers and non-smokers through strict ventilation codes, but Stacey Reece wouldn’t even talk to me about that option. We should be ashamed that Republicans took people’s rights away unnecessarily.
I am just curious as to why she thinks that President Bush didn’t endorse Chambliss is the primary.
As I recall he was down here like in March to raise money? And so was Cheney before the primary.
Uh, Deb, it’s likely voters … apparently you really are talking out of line, b/c you haven’t even looked at the numbers – you are just spouting off talking points.
And, oh yeah, I have footage with W, too … maybe we can take that and super-impose Ralph’s face to it, b/c that would be the only way you are going to see and ad that has Ralph and W.
Was I the only one uncomfortable with Debbie talking about anal exams? And are we to infer from her email that Ralph plans to provide Casey with an anal exam?
Apparently, Ralph has regular anal exams. It is unclear yet as to whether debbie gives them or was merely found during one.
I try and avoid anal exams period! I think Debbie has a problem….that or we know her fantasy!
This thread is funny! LOL! HAHAHA! ROFLMAO!
That is all.
I am speaking about the anal exam when you run for state wide office in a hotly contested race.
Taylor and Cox both were elected but not in really hotly contested races. They are in one now and things have come out that have not seen the light of day before.
Gawire, you are the one spouting off. I have looked at the numbers. In fact, I provided the link for the poll. I concentrated on the numbers and questions.
I do not spout off talking points. I have not communicated with the Reed campaign since Saturday. I did not even send them the link for the poll.
I will leave spouting off talking points to you and Demonbeck, Gawire.
Is “the anal exam when you run for state wide office in a hotly contested race” required by law? Is this something overseen by the Secretary of State’s office? If so, who would want that job? Gross!
Debbie, have you ever “run for state wide office in a hotly contested race?” Perhaps someone took advantage of you?
eem2006, I don’t recall that. That was a U.S. Senate seat , too not Lt. Governor.
How do you guys think Reed has gotten people like Giuliani, Barbour, Hannity? It it odd the Reynolds Plantation was the site of a Reed fundraiser and also Bush fundraiser. Nardelli hosted a fundraiser for Bush and Reed both. All that just happened huh? The Whitehouse was not involved, sure….
Bullmoose, what kind of vehicle do you drive?
JSM, I ask the same of you regarding the allegations that Reed broke the law by laudering money.
Debbie,
No one is questioning Reed’s relationships to national political figures. (OK well, some people ARE investigating them, but that’s beside the point.) They are questioning your charge that the Bush White House has endorsed Reed. Clearly, the Bush Administration has done nothing in this race and will continue to do nothing in this race. To think that Bush would step into any of Ralph’s personal dealings at this moment is not only foolish but it is asinine.
Debbie,
You know what people who gave money to Bush also have given Money to Cagle! A primary is an election inside a political party. You can just ask Reed, he has tried to dystroy good republicans reputations (Day) during to primary. He did this not because of morals or ideas, he did it to make his wallet fatter. Then he did not have to worry about that because of gambling and free golf trips from a good personal friend! I guess he took the job to pay for his BMW and his leased truck!
Debbie,
I am also waiting for the anwser to the 2 questions I have asked you today! I do not think you can! Do you need to call Reed first?
I drive a car Debbie. Ralph drives a BMW. Ask his neighbors. He leased a truck for the campaign so he’d look like a “real Georgian”. However, it’s hypocritical to drive a car and then lease another one for “image” during the campaign. But heck, hypocrisy is nothing new to Ralph Reed…
My other thoughts on the poll… Mark Taylor is going to give Perdue a run for his money. With so much Republican depression and Perdue having turned off so many of the old line Republicans, it is going to be an interesting race… My money is still on Perdue but I know MANY who are now placing even odds.
Bull,
I think it is way too early to project November election results. Wait ’til July 19th to see what the matchups will be.
Oh, I’m not predicting, I’m just saying…
I’m all for Perdue, but I do have another hat as a pundit of sorts…
Debbie,
Here is your quote
“”Bush did not get officially involved with the Chambliss race but everyon knew he was pulling strings behind the scenes”"
EEM2006′s quote
“”I am just curious as to why she thinks that President Bush didn’t endorse Chambliss is the primary.
As I recall he was down here like in March to raise money? And so was Cheney before the primary.”"
Ralph exploited his contacts as Bush SE chairman to get the support of the Bush Donors like Reynolds, Calloway, and Nardeli. He mislead them in believing he had the support of Bush.
Unfortunatley Rudy was also mislead by Ralph to believe that the Ralph had the support of the Christian Right. At the GA Christian Coalition event in February, it was apparent that Casey had a good deal, if not the majority, of supporters in the room.
Wow, Deb, you hit me hard with that whole “No, you’re the one spouting off” defense. Good one.
Deb, please just answer this one question, and try – try very hard – not to follow Ralph, and actually tell the truth:
By what was said in Ralph’s ad, is Ralph going against the GOP members of the State Senate and Gov Perdue on the vote in question? IS REED GOING AGAINST A BILL SUPPORTED BY THE GOVERNOR?
A simple YES or NO is all I am looking for here.
GAWire…not to throw any defense up for poor ‘ole Debbie…but, your question insinuates that the ENTIRE caucus AND the Governor can do no wrong if they all vote in favor of something and it gets signed into law. Sounds a tad bit like Imperialism to me.
Debbie, I cannot believe how blindly you follow Ralph Reed. This state will be ridiculed–and rightfully so, I might add–if Reed is elected.
That goes for whether or not you want to “pinch his cheeks”–or whether Jesus Christ himself comes down to endorse Ralph Reed, hand in hand with Giuliani, and Elvis and John Lennon to boot. I’m still voting against him and encouraging my friends to do the same.
We don’t need to extend K Street to the Georgia Governor’s Mansion, or give Ralph Reed a stepping stone to the White House.
Bill, my question doesn’t insinuate anything, so stop trying to make it something it isn’t.
It is simply a question, and one to which I would like to know the answer … Is Ralph Reed going against Governor Perdue and the GOP majority in the State Senate, or not?
It isn’t a rediculous question. It is a logical one, and as member of the GOP, I would like to know everything I can about our Primary candidates.
Here’s what I just sent to Cagle’s campaign:
Sorry to inform you, I was one of Cagle’s earliest announced supporters but can no longer vote for him. I’m not voting for the sleazeball either, but will rather just not vote for the position, and rest assured there are many others like me. This evening I went to the “Georgia Brain Train” event in Lawrenceville and saw Cagle’s video presentation. I thought he was a fiscal conservative, but not so. The “Georgia Brain Train” is a boondoggle that will cost megabucks per passenger mile, and yet Cagle came out wholeheartedly for it….as long as “federal dollars are made available”. What a joke. I can tell you, with that comment in that meeting he became the object of derision of friend and foe alike. The moderator cut off his presentation at that point amid the general sensation on all sides.
Harry, despite what some may say on this site, there aren’t many others like you … at least not many who would actually show up to vote on Election Day.
Oh, and congrats … your vote doesn’t mean anything. You’re a “real” great American. Enjoy the 4th of July and I hope you enjoy “not voting” – those who make sacrifices to protect your right to “just not vote for the position” appreciate it.
Good article
http://msnbc.msn.com/id/13598408/
Good article
http://msnbc.msn.com/id/13598408/
If Reed believes the entire Republican Senate has done wrong, it’s Reed’s right to announce it. But he hasn’t, he singled out his opponent in his add. It is only right to ask Reed, “If one Senator was wrong on this issue, were they all, or does this only apply to your opponent?”
GAWire,
Although I’ll not vote in the primary, I promise to vote for the Republican in November. You also, will you vote for the Republican in November??
If you Cagle supporters don’t like the ad, then you are going to go ballistic over the mailpiece:) I love it!! Reed has finally started to give Cagle a taste of his own medicine. Enjoy
http://www.ajc.com/metro/content/shared-blogs/ajc/politicalinsider/index.html
Independent thinker, you are a fool if you think Reed does not have the majority of the Christian Coalition support or Christian Right support. I was a that meeting and Cagle did NOT have the majority of supporters there. Cagle had bused people in and it just about evenly split. The Bush Whitehouse is backing Ralph and you are fool to think otherwise.
Bullmoose, I agree the poll numbers in regard to Taylor are somewhat troubling. I think the race is going to be a lot closer than most thought. I still think Sonny will win, but it will be close…
Debbie,
Here is the article you linked to. Did you not notice how the majority of the piece explains how Reed’s mailer is a complete lie?
Home > Political Insider
Reed’s latest mailer on Cagle
Reed stakes the first round of his fight against Cagle on property rights
Wednesday, June 28, 2006, 09:40 PM
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
This is kind of like “The Lake House,
Debbie, if you think Ralpie has had negative ads thrown at him in the last year sit back and see what’s coming. It’s nuclear summer and there is no better man in the business to have the red button than J.M. Ralphie will be fried by July18 and you all will look like the dumb **** you are for following such a sleaze ball over the cliff…
Demonbeck, I saw nothing that said the mailpiece was a complete lie or that it inferred it was lie. I see mentioned of a mixup in the dates.
You Cagle guys need to fasten your seatbelts because it is going to be a pretty rough ride from here on out..I don’t know what the Reed campaign has planned but I know what is out there to be used against Cagle and I know what I would do…I know Ralph Reed is a brilliant campaigner and is a fighter.
Interesting thing about campaigns. When one candidate is not a known quanity, it gives the opposition a chance to define him if has had lapses in judgement or makes bad choices in votes…
Going to be a very interesting…
The polling trend will change within two weeks. Reed will win by 10- 15 %
Debbie said, “JSM, I ask the same of you regarding the allegations that Reed broke the law by laudering money.”
Okay, Debbie. I don’t want to waste a bunch of space repeating what has already been said, but here are just a few tidbits from the report–again:
“On April 6, 1999, Abramoff informed Reed that he ‘spoke with our managing partner [at Preston Gates] and he has approved the subcontractor arrangement’ and instructed Reed to ‘get me invoices as soon as possible so I can get Choctaw to get us checks asap.’”
“On a similar project in early 2000, Reed and Abramoff discussed using four groups instead of one as conduits to pay Reed: NCPPR, ATR, Toward Tradition and one unidentified group. Abramoff later advised Reed that ‘Rabbi Lapin [head of Toward Tradition] does not
have a c4′ and asked Reed for ‘the name of the c4 you want to use (include address) and we’ll divide it among the three groups.’ Within days, Abramoff advised Reed that Amy Ridenour, president of NCPPR, ‘does not have a c4, only a c3, so we are back to ATR only.’ Abramoff asked Reed, ‘Let me know if it will work just to do this through ATR until we can find another group.’”
“Based on everything Rogers knew, ATR simply served as a conduit to disguise the source of the Choctaw money ultimately paid to grassroots groups and Reed.”
“The mail piece strikes less cleanly on the issue, mixing the events of 2003 with those of 2005.”
“The condemnations in the Reed flyer are all from 2005, not 2003″
“S.B. 5 “could dissolve the state of Georgia and build everything from mountain to seashore without asking taxpayers a single time for permission,
Bring it Debbie I can’t wait to hush your misguided, homophobic mouth once and for all. Your boy is a known crook is what he is, surrounded by a bunch inferior thinking munchkins that will be exposed soon… by the way is Ralphie going to appear on THE FACTOR and answer the hard questions from OREILY I hear it’s set to air the last week of primary how will you all spin that??? You all will not know what hit you by the end of this and it couldn’t happen to a better block of people…
Debbie,
I can say Cagle will win by 30, but there is no proof! Where do you get these numbers? Is it from Reed who is calling Eric Johnson a liberal for voteing for this bill. You have not brought any evidence to the table. Put up or shut up!!!!!!!
As I have said before, I predict that Reed will win by an unprecedented 45% of the vote with an equally unprecedented 145% of the state’s registered voters showing up to the polls.
I think Casey’s own pets might even vote for Ralph!
Southerncomfort, I look forward the O’Reilly interview airing.
I am not homophobic because I oppose gay marriage. You are the one that is out of touch with the mainstream in Georgia. 70% of the voters approved the anti gay marriage ammendment. You just don’t like being in the minority. Are all voters that approved that ammendment homophobic?
We will see on July 18th who is right about the percentages.
As far as the Reed ad, when the Cagle ad slams Reed for what he said about illegal immigration while he was Bush-Cheney Regional Director, isn’t Cagle also slamming Bush-Cheney?
Many conservatives don’t agree with the Bush-Cheney plan on illegal immigration.
Bush/Cheney is wrong on immigratio! So I am glad Casey is not just a mouth peice for Bush!
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