I have a few thoughts on the Strategic Vision Poll.
First thought is that the sample number and margin of error makes this a solid poll. Strategic Vision also rotates names so the sample is improved.
This poll follows in the same trend we’ve seen. Casey has yet to be ahead of Ralph, but he keeps inching closer. Ralph’s unfavorables far outweigh his favorables, but Casey has a very high undecided number.
Interestingly, Saxby is only at 50% favorable with Isakson ahead of him. Perdue looks good as do Taylor and Cox, with Taylor having a small edge over Cox. What I find very interesting is that Perdue is doing better against Cox than Taylor in this poll — something that flies in the face of conventional wisdom.
As it shapes up right now, I think Perdue is solid and Taylor probably is too. I’d give the edge to Ralph — with 15% undecided, he needs less than Cagle to get over 50%. However, while I think he has an edge, it is a damn small edge. Let’s face it — Reed is a known quantity and Cagle is not. A heck of a lot of the undecideds will probably jump to Cagle, given the high unfavorables for Ralph.
While Ralph has the edge, he clings to it by his fingernails. The next few weeks should be very, very interesting.
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Cagle has not been slammed by Reed or the press for the past year. Reed has had negative publicity. Cagle is now being slammed by Reed. Cagle’s ad keep rehashing the same allegations voters have been hearing the past year. Reed’s ads are something the voters have not really heard before.
Solid analysis Erick. I agree with everything you’ve said.
The Perdue v. Taylor results were very interesting. Could it be that Taylor has convinced Democrats that he’s the one who can beat Perdue? Early on it was assumed that Cox was the better general election candidate, but no more.
I still think the election is Reed’s to lose.
I am suprised about Taylor running better against Perdue than Cox. Weren’t there earlier polls where the results were the opposite?
Good analysis except for the fact that Ralph Reed’s unfavorables are at almost 50% and much higher than his favorables. He cant win with a number like that, no matter how you slice it.
Debbie,
I think the average voter is just now starting to pay attention. So I do not think it matters what has been said for the past year. Right now it is to close to call.
Debbie, I think the election is Ralph’s to lose and if the trends hold, he just might do it. Every SV poll has had Ralph ahead — but they have also had Cagle closing the gap. Ralph still has the edge, but barely.
The reason Perdue is doing better against Cox than Taylor is because she has lost the suburban soccer mom vote that she had a few months ago due to her flip flopping around on the issues. She no longer offers these voters a choice between Perdue and herself on social issues.
They’ve taken the exact same positions on issues like gay rights and abortion. When women who are Republican trending voters are offered no choice between the Republican and the Democrat, they are going to choose the Republican every time. That, I think, explains Cox’s decline against Perdue.
Taylor makes up the difference by being more palpable to some men and rural voters who would probably lean towards Perdue.
With Taylor expanding the gap between him and Cox, does that translate into more women voting in the Republican primary? One would think that women would vote for Casey over Ralph.
Not really sure I understand you logic. Are you saying that female republican voters were going to switch over to vote for Cox? If so, and the prior polls showed Cox doing better against Sonny, why would they do that?
Demonbeck,
The previous post was a ?? to you.
Erick, I agree, but Reed’s ads are just beginning to run and he has a lot of air time. Cagle is now being slammed. Not just Reed. Voters have heard mostly negative about Reed the past year.
Reed’s ads are starting to hit Cagle.
I think if the trend continues in the next poll Reed is in trouble. I don’t think the trend will continue.
I don’t believe the poll numbers for Taylor-Perdue. I think Perdue is further ahead of Taylor.
I have serious doubts about Taylor doing better against Perdue. I have heard misguided Republican woman talking about voting for Cox if she was the nominee.
The latest results don’t make sense…
4ofspades,
No, I am asking that if female swing voters start believing that voting for Cox is a hopeless cause, do they switch back to a Republican primary to vote for Casey/against Reed?
Demonbeck, I think the Taylor-Cox campaign is far from over.
You must be talking about lesbian voters. The women I know like Reed. Reed has the kind of face that makes women to want to just pinch his cheeks.
I have never posted before but now I must.
Debbie – GAG ME!
I am not a lesbian, I am married. I am visually and mentally repulsed by Ralph Reed.
Yeah, women like to pinch his cheeks right up to the moment they find out he and his Christian Coalition breathren spread rumors about them having back-alley abortions, and then they turn-off their passion for him.
Three hurrahs for Debbie! It’s the first rational reason she’s mentioned for anyone to vote for Ralphie.
Yes, debbie, because only lesbians vote on the value of content, experience and values. Straight women vote based solely upon how cute a candidate is.
You have got to be the only female chauvinist pig I have ever encountered.
The fact of the matter is, women decide their vote based upon different factors than men. Generally, those factors are the same as found in men, just in a different order of importance. Most studies have shown that ethics and trust are more important to women in their choice of candidates than they are to men. With all of the recent hub-bub about Reed’s connections to the Abramoff scandal, one would think that Reed’s image with “regular Jane” voters is severely tarnished. This could swing those that vote based largely upon ethics and trustworthiness to lean towards Cagle over Reed.
I am not saying that the Taylor-Cox race is over, I am asking that if the Taylor lead continues to grow, does that bode well for Cagle? All partisanship aside, I would have to say that it does.
Either way, with polling trends and happenings around the state, even you have to admit that a perfect storm scenario seems to be brewing for Cagle. The question is no longer if he can make up the ground on Reed, but if he has enough time and money to surpass him.
Debbie,
On behalf of the site, we grow tired and weary of your statements about gay voters supporting Cagle. I’m pretty sure most gay voters are supporting one of the Democrats, not Cagle.
Can we please give it a rest?
Demonbeck,
I don’t think there was ever going to be a big republican women crossover for for Cox.
I know what the female democrat numbers look like in a primary, but a thinks it’s a big number (50+%). Maybe Hardcore or Decaturguy know’s those numbers.
Demonbeck that is a sexist statement. I am a career woman and I care about the same things male does. Low taxes, small government, low spending, defense, crime, etc.
Not all women are soccer moms.
I was being humerous in my statement about Reed’s cheeks.
Lesbian women would be more inclined to vote for Cagle because of Reed’s stance on gay marriage. They know Reed is more of a threat to their ideology than Cagle is.
Cagle is not trustworthy at all and the Reed campaign would be rather foolish not to bring that out.. As I have said, Cagle is not squeaky clean. Cagle has a lot of enemies in his district….
If the next Strategic Vision Poll shows the same trend, then I will admit Reed could be in trouble. I think in a few weeks that trend will be reversed.
Think about this logically. Reed has received negative publicity from the press and from Cagle the past year. Cagle has not. Cagle’s being ethically challenged is just now coming to light and the allegations are not rehashed allegations like with the ads the Cagle campaign is running. Do you really think he will continue to gain ground? Do you think if Reed starts running ads with Zell Miller, President Bush, Dick Cheney, Rudy Giuiliani, Sean Hannity all praising him it will not have an impact?
Two things:
1. Trends are not good for Ralph.
2. It is normal for a Sen in the 4th yr to have somewhat lower #s than the other in his 2nd yr, especially in a state like GA, where both have a lot of support. They are fine.
I would still think the female voters will vote in the Democratic Primary enmasse for Cox.
As for the gay voters pissed off w ith Cox, I am sure Cox has a strategy of saying, “I am still in favor of gay marriage, but look at the poll numbers. I will not do your cause any good if I am not elected. I can not get elected in Georgia supporting gay marriage. Wink, wink, nod, nod.” Cox will get the gay vote back.
I haven’t looked, but have the fav/unfav for Reed changed much? If they haven’t you could argue that the year long negative media campaign hasn’t had a major effect. You would think that the negative media would increase his unfav numbers.
Erick, it was in the AJC that some were. The admitted it. I will not mention it again on this blog. I am sure you do not want to hurt Cagle…
Debbie, when did President Bush endorse Ralph?
Debbie,
If my memory serves me….BUSH HAS NOT ENDORSED ANYONE! Actually it is more of a boost for Cagle because everyone thought Bush would support Reed!
Spades, yes, they have changed considerably. Look at the trends. I’ll make you guys see the trends if I have to pound them into your head. I’ve only been talking about it for 9 mos now!
Wire,
I was asking about the trend. Just being lazy and hoping sombody knew it.
GAWIRE, Are you saying trends can not be reversed?
Democratic women voters :
BYLINE: JIM THARPE
DATE: June 3, 2006
PUBLICATION: Atlanta Journal-Constitution, The (GA)
EDITION: Main; The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
SECTION: Metro News
PAGE: E2
Lt. Gov. Mark Taylor has a slight lead over Secretary of State Cathy Cox in the Democratic race for Georgia’s next governor, according to the latest statewide poll, which showed 39 percent of voters still haven’t made a decision.
The Insider Advantage/Majority Opinion Poll, conducted May 30-31 for Southern Political Report, found 34 percent of those surveyed favored Taylor and 27 percent favored Cox. The poll, conducted among 450 likely Democratic primary voters, has a margin of error of 5 percentage points.
“It’s good news for Taylor in the sense that he has climbed from being behind Cox in prior polls to having a lead outside the margin of error,” said Matt Towery, CEO of Insider Advantage.
Towery stressed, however, that “the race is still up for grabs” because of the substantial undecided vote.
Both seasoned politicians, Cox and Taylor are in a fight to the finish in the July 18 Democratic primary to see who will face incumbent Republican Gov. Sonny Perdue in the November general election.
“This validates everything we know,” said Taylor spokesman Rick Dent. “Mark Taylor has taken the lead because voters understand that he looks after the little guy.”
Cox spokesman Peter Jackson said the poll shows “this is going to be a close and competitive race for the Democratic nomination for governor.”
The poll indicated Cox holds a 10-point lead among female voters who already have made a decision. However, Cox was trailing Taylor 20 percent to 36 percent among African-American voters. The two split the white vote evenly.
Women of all races account for 60 percent of the Democratic primary vote and African-Americans about 50 percent of the vote.
About 45 percent of women voters were still undecided. Cox is favored among that demographic. About 44 percent of blacks — a bloc where Taylor is thought to have an advantage — were undecided.
Taylor’s camp was careful to stress that there is still a month and a half to go in the race, which will sprint to the finish after July 4 as both candidates saturate the airwaves with ads.
“We have six very long weeks to go,” Dent said. “It’s not over. You ain’t seen nothing yet.”
Debbie,
Either you have no idea what “ethically challenged” means or you are mistaking the GA LG race for another. There have been no questions about Casey’s ethics at all in this entire campaign.
Now, you have tried to question Casey’s morals (as many have done with Reed) and his values (same with Reed too), but, to my knowledge, Casey’s ethics have never been questioned formally or even informally, while Reed’s ethics have been questioned quite publicly on numerous occasions.
So you think it is ok to vote on and introduce legislation that enriches you personally and your profession? You think it is ok to donate to Democrats and lie about why you did it? You think it is ok to increase your wealth 900% while serving as a so called public servant on the Senate Banking Committee?
Cagle admitted he puffed up his disclosure form. Is it ok to lie on your disclosure form?
You made a good point Demonbeck. Cagle’s ethics have never been questioned. He has never really faced scrutiny – until now. That will reverse the trend….
Your boy is not clean
“So you think it is ok to vote on and introduce legislation that enriches you personally and your profession?”
Yes, that is what a citizen legislature does. Farmers make up our Ag policy, lawyers make up our judicial committee, bankers work on banking. Certainly, Reed doesn’t want our General Assembly to start paying more than $16,000 per year so these folks can quit their jobs? If Reed becomes LG is he going to take charge of Ethics and Lobbying Reform?
“You think it is ok to donate to Democrats and lie about why you did it?”
He didn’t lie, he was misquoted and set the story straight publicly, your selective memory seems to forget this constantly. We should also mention why the donation was made by Cagle and Eric Johnson in the first place – the dirty campaign run by Reed that resulted in a slander lawsuit and put Mitch Skandalakis in jail.
“think it is ok to increase your wealth 900% while serving as a so called public servant on the Senate Banking Committee?”
Yup, I think it is fine for our public officials to have jobs outside of their work serving our state. I would prefer that our public officials remain normal people and be touched as much as possible by other normal people rather than live life behind a green curtain at the end of the yellow brick road.
You Reedites are all the same, you expect Cagle to live up to standards that you don’t require from your own candidate.
Demonbeck,
I’m pretty sure Mitch went to jail on corruption charges in Fulton County, not because of a slander lawsuit.
Demonbeck –
Skandalakis subsequently pled guilty to lying to federal investigators in a public corruption investigation. He was sentenced to a six month prison term, effectively ending his political career. An attorney by profession, Skandalakis was disbarred from the practice of law by the Georgia Supreme Court.
Retrieved from “http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mitch_Skandalakis”
Demonbeck Cagle was NOT misquoted. He sent out an email saying he had been threatened. I guess Cagle is claiming he was misquoted by his campaign employee. If you believe that, I have some ocean front property in Tennessee I would like to sell you. The paper and email quoted Cagle direct. I guess Jim Galloway misquoted Cagle as well.
Cagle donated to Taylor because Casey is a wuss and was frightened of Taylor.
Demonbeck, I am not at all suprised to see a Cagle supprter express those sentiments. I wonder what the average joe schmoe voter will think?
Here is the rest of the entry on Skandalakis and Reed:
Skandalakis was re-elected to a full term in 1994, running as a moderate Republican and openly courting gay voters. In 1998, he hired former Christian Coalition executive director Ralph Reed as his campaign manager and ran for Lieutenant Governor as a right wing conservative. Reed appeared in advertisements for Skandalakis vouching for his social conservatism and personal integrity.
Skandalakis placed first among five candidates in the Republican primary, then defeated conservative State Senator Clint Day, scion of the Days Inn motel family in a bitterly contested primary run-off. Although successful with Reed’s help in winning the Republican primary, Skandalakis’s strategy of negative campaigning backfired in the general election. He lost in a landslide to the Democratic candidate, State Senator Mark Taylor, who had served as Governor Zell Miller’s floor leader.
Skandalakis and Reed were widely blamed for the defeat that year of Republican candidates for Georgia and Attorney General. Reed, who had months earlier appeared in advertisements vouching for Skandalakis’s integrity, immediately began distancing himself from Skandalakis, who settled a libel suit filed by Taylor over the truthfulness of his television advertisements.
I didn’t mean to infer that the libel suit put Skandalakis in jail, I was merely pointing to the fact that yet another associate of Reed went to jail for underhanded dealings. I was trying to show a trend.
Ralph Reed was not an elected official that took advantage of his elective office like Cagle did.
I agree with Demonbeck. Reed needs to either be quit about the banking or say we should have a full time State Gov. Also Debbie you still have not anwsered my question if you beleive Bush endorsed Reed! Also you have not anwsered my other question. What about Ralph lying in his TV ad! He bashed the whole Republican State Senate and Sonny! Is every Republican in the state liberal except Ralph? Can you please anwser my 2 questions!
Debbie,
Quite obviously, you have never been involved in media or putting out press releases. Often in the hustle to put out a release, a quote is made up to fit the message.
Also, oftentimes in politics, threats are inferred, but not directly made.
Either way, Hurricane Ralph’s campaign against Taylor was so slanderous and dirty that it set up the environment that other Republicans had to clean up in his wake.
No, instead, Ralph has made a career of taking advantage of the collective faith of true Christians and turning it into personal profit.
As someone who does not have very strong feelings about either candidate, I’m curious if someone could answer a general polling question for me?
How is it that in the “Who would you vote for question” Ralph gets 44% of the vote, but in the “Unfavorable question” Ralph gets 47% unfavorable. Both questions had 15% undecided. Is it simply that your average voter can be a little foolish or is there some other reason for it?
Are you saying Jim Galloway of the AJC misquoted Cagle as well? Galloway spoke to Cagle directly . Let’s see you would have us believe that Cagle’s paid campaign staff made that about the threat up and also Jim Galloway made up the threat info. And it took Cagle how many weeks to realize it and correct it? Face it Cagle lied. He also lied on his financial disclosure form to puff up contributions.
Yes I think that Bush supports Reed. He will not get involved directly. He will do like he did in the Chambliss race.
Ralph did not lie about Cagle in the ad.
Demonbeck,
Thanks for the clarification.
I think Perdue and the State Senate have overstepped on a few bills. I think some of the bills were not conservative like the no smoking one in public places. That was a bill you would expect liberals to pass.
The Whtiehouse will not lower themselves to officially get involved with a lowly Lt. Governor’s race but I do think they are helping behinde the scenes.
Bush did not get officially involved with the Chambliss race but everyon knew he was pulling strings behind the scenes.
Demonbeck, the candidate usually has to sign off on the releases. Jim Galloway quoted Cagle directly. Admit it he lied.
Jimbo, I have to disagree about the no smoking bill. When smoking is allowed in public, it affects non smokers as well. Have you ever heard about second hand smoke? It was responsible legislation and probably will end up saving the taxpayers money in health related costs.
atlantaman, the people that were polled could not just want to say who they are voting for. This is a very explosive race. The poll numbers could be skewed but they are not nine percent in Cagle’s favor like some Cagle supporters were advancing.
I don’t think the polling numbers are right on Sen. Isakson and Chambliss. I think their approval ratings are much higher.
Debbie, File an ethics complaint.
Oh, so before, Debbie, you were saying that Bush will be in an ad with Ralph and now you’re saying the WH won’t lower themselves to get in a LG race.
First, let me clarify … the WH has gotten involved in LG races before. What they will not lower themselves to do is get involved with Ralph Reed!
Lastly, this is the funniest item of the day … the following quote coming from a supporter of Ralph Reed:
“”"Your boy is not clean”"”
Debbie, you are saying Casey isn’t clean, yet your candidate is the one who misled clients, making over $4mm for himself, based on unethical lies. You are absolutely hilarious.
And, as far as polling trends … I never said trends can’t change, but the bottom line in the Dem Gov race is that Mark and Cathy have been neck-in-neck the entire time, and Mark has just recently pulled ahead, but it is still too close to call.
Ralph on the other hand started out with a HUGE lead, and it has gradually gone down, while Casey’s numbers have boosted. Those trends say a lot more than MT pulling ahead by a few points!
When you learn a little more about polling, you can try to debate that issue with me, but until then, stick to your talking points!
GAwire, I have seen footage of W and Reed and W saying very nice things about Reed. I was at the Cheney event when Cheney said “I see my friend of many years Ralph Reed in the audience. “I am pretty sure the Reed campaign could get that footage if needed. They would be crazy not to use it. Is there any footage of Cagle with W or Cheney? No
I know about polling and that it can be deceiving.
It does not take a genius to figure out that if someone is being slammed by Cagle and the press and they don’t start fighting back , it will affect their poll numbers.
Cagle has not had his ethical shortcomings made public until now. There had not been constant barrage of negatives against Cagle , until now.
Once all that comes into play, the poll numbers can change.
Cagle’s ad is just rehashing what voters have heard the past year. Reed’s ad is giving voters new info on Cagle.
Oh Good God Debbie… Where do you live, under a rock or in a cave? Reporters cover the legislature like flies on horse crap… If there was anything to Casey Cagle that merits disclosure, don’t you think reporters would have covered it and jumped the ball on it?
There’s nothing there. Casey Cagle did not vote on bills that personally enriched himself, in fact, he abstained on bills such as time limits for sellings banks and legislation that personally did affect him. What you and Ralph suggest is that no one vote or be involved in any legislation that affects their jobs. If that’s the case, I guess you’re calling for the heads of the entire Republican Caucus?
As for the contribution to Mark Taylor, the President Pro Tempore also donated to Mark Taylor. Do you think he’s unqualified and should step aside? Is that what Reed is pushing these days? I mean he just attacked the entire caucus so I wouldn’t be surprised if he singled out another Senator too.
You need to come off the Reed dope if you expect to have any credibility as a struggling pundit…
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