Thoughts on the Poll

I have a few thoughts on the Strategic Vision Poll.

First thought is that the sample number and margin of error makes this a solid poll. Strategic Vision also rotates names so the sample is improved.

This poll follows in the same trend we’ve seen. Casey has yet to be ahead of Ralph, but he keeps inching closer. Ralph’s unfavorables far outweigh his favorables, but Casey has a very high undecided number.

Interestingly, Saxby is only at 50% favorable with Isakson ahead of him. Perdue looks good as do Taylor and Cox, with Taylor having a small edge over Cox. What I find very interesting is that Perdue is doing better against Cox than Taylor in this poll — something that flies in the face of conventional wisdom.

As it shapes up right now, I think Perdue is solid and Taylor probably is too. I’d give the edge to Ralph — with 15% undecided, he needs less than Cagle to get over 50%. However, while I think he has an edge, it is a damn small edge. Let’s face it — Reed is a known quantity and Cagle is not. A heck of a lot of the undecideds will probably jump to Cagle, given the high unfavorables for Ralph.

While Ralph has the edge, he clings to it by his fingernails. The next few weeks should be very, very interesting.

118 comments

  1. debbie0040 says:

    Cagle has not been slammed by Reed or the press for the past year. Reed has had negative publicity. Cagle is now being slammed by Reed. Cagle’s ad keep rehashing the same allegations voters have been hearing the past year. Reed’s ads are something the voters have not really heard before.

  2. buzzbrockway says:

    Solid analysis Erick. I agree with everything you’ve said.

    The Perdue v. Taylor results were very interesting. Could it be that Taylor has convinced Democrats that he’s the one who can beat Perdue? Early on it was assumed that Cox was the better general election candidate, but no more.

  3. debbie0040 says:

    I still think the election is Reed’s to lose.

    I am suprised about Taylor running better against Perdue than Cox. Weren’t there earlier polls where the results were the opposite?

  4. jackson says:

    Good analysis except for the fact that Ralph Reed’s unfavorables are at almost 50% and much higher than his favorables. He cant win with a number like that, no matter how you slice it.

  5. HSC Republican says:

    Debbie,
    I think the average voter is just now starting to pay attention. So I do not think it matters what has been said for the past year. Right now it is to close to call.

  6. Erick says:

    Debbie, I think the election is Ralph’s to lose and if the trends hold, he just might do it. Every SV poll has had Ralph ahead — but they have also had Cagle closing the gap. Ralph still has the edge, but barely.

  7. Decaturguy says:

    The reason Perdue is doing better against Cox than Taylor is because she has lost the suburban soccer mom vote that she had a few months ago due to her flip flopping around on the issues. She no longer offers these voters a choice between Perdue and herself on social issues.

    They’ve taken the exact same positions on issues like gay rights and abortion. When women who are Republican trending voters are offered no choice between the Republican and the Democrat, they are going to choose the Republican every time. That, I think, explains Cox’s decline against Perdue.

    Taylor makes up the difference by being more palpable to some men and rural voters who would probably lean towards Perdue.

  8. Demonbeck says:

    With Taylor expanding the gap between him and Cox, does that translate into more women voting in the Republican primary? One would think that women would vote for Casey over Ralph.

  9. 4ofspades says:

    Not really sure I understand you logic. Are you saying that female republican voters were going to switch over to vote for Cox? If so, and the prior polls showed Cox doing better against Sonny, why would they do that?

  10. debbie0040 says:

    Erick, I agree, but Reed’s ads are just beginning to run and he has a lot of air time. Cagle is now being slammed. Not just Reed. Voters have heard mostly negative about Reed the past year.

    Reed’s ads are starting to hit Cagle.

    I think if the trend continues in the next poll Reed is in trouble. I don’t think the trend will continue.

    I don’t believe the poll numbers for Taylor-Perdue. I think Perdue is further ahead of Taylor.

  11. debbie0040 says:

    I have serious doubts about Taylor doing better against Perdue. I have heard misguided Republican woman talking about voting for Cox if she was the nominee.

    The latest results don’t make sense…

  12. Demonbeck says:

    4ofspades,

    No, I am asking that if female swing voters start believing that voting for Cox is a hopeless cause, do they switch back to a Republican primary to vote for Casey/against Reed?

  13. debbie0040 says:

    Demonbeck, I think the Taylor-Cox campaign is far from over.

    You must be talking about lesbian voters. The women I know like Reed. Reed has the kind of face that makes women to want to just pinch his cheeks.

  14. eem2006 says:

    I have never posted before but now I must.

    Debbie – GAG ME!

    I am not a lesbian, I am married. I am visually and mentally repulsed by Ralph Reed.

  15. Bill Simon says:

    Yeah, women like to pinch his cheeks right up to the moment they find out he and his Christian Coalition breathren spread rumors about them having back-alley abortions, and then they turn-off their passion for him.

  16. nfire says:

    Three hurrahs for Debbie! It’s the first rational reason she’s mentioned for anyone to vote for Ralphie.

  17. Demonbeck says:

    Yes, debbie, because only lesbians vote on the value of content, experience and values. Straight women vote based solely upon how cute a candidate is.

    You have got to be the only female chauvinist pig I have ever encountered.

    The fact of the matter is, women decide their vote based upon different factors than men. Generally, those factors are the same as found in men, just in a different order of importance. Most studies have shown that ethics and trust are more important to women in their choice of candidates than they are to men. With all of the recent hub-bub about Reed’s connections to the Abramoff scandal, one would think that Reed’s image with “regular Jane” voters is severely tarnished. This could swing those that vote based largely upon ethics and trustworthiness to lean towards Cagle over Reed.

    I am not saying that the Taylor-Cox race is over, I am asking that if the Taylor lead continues to grow, does that bode well for Cagle? All partisanship aside, I would have to say that it does.

    Either way, with polling trends and happenings around the state, even you have to admit that a perfect storm scenario seems to be brewing for Cagle. The question is no longer if he can make up the ground on Reed, but if he has enough time and money to surpass him.

  18. Erick says:

    Debbie,
    On behalf of the site, we grow tired and weary of your statements about gay voters supporting Cagle. I’m pretty sure most gay voters are supporting one of the Democrats, not Cagle.

    Can we please give it a rest?

  19. 4ofspades says:

    Demonbeck,
    I don’t think there was ever going to be a big republican women crossover for for Cox.

    I know what the female democrat numbers look like in a primary, but a thinks it’s a big number (50+%). Maybe Hardcore or Decaturguy know’s those numbers.

  20. debbie0040 says:

    Demonbeck that is a sexist statement. I am a career woman and I care about the same things male does. Low taxes, small government, low spending, defense, crime, etc.

    Not all women are soccer moms.

    I was being humerous in my statement about Reed’s cheeks.

    Lesbian women would be more inclined to vote for Cagle because of Reed’s stance on gay marriage. They know Reed is more of a threat to their ideology than Cagle is.

    Cagle is not trustworthy at all and the Reed campaign would be rather foolish not to bring that out.. As I have said, Cagle is not squeaky clean. Cagle has a lot of enemies in his district….

    If the next Strategic Vision Poll shows the same trend, then I will admit Reed could be in trouble. I think in a few weeks that trend will be reversed.

    Think about this logically. Reed has received negative publicity from the press and from Cagle the past year. Cagle has not. Cagle’s being ethically challenged is just now coming to light and the allegations are not rehashed allegations like with the ads the Cagle campaign is running. Do you really think he will continue to gain ground? Do you think if Reed starts running ads with Zell Miller, President Bush, Dick Cheney, Rudy Giuiliani, Sean Hannity all praising him it will not have an impact?

  21. GAWire says:

    Two things:

    1. Trends are not good for Ralph.
    2. It is normal for a Sen in the 4th yr to have somewhat lower #s than the other in his 2nd yr, especially in a state like GA, where both have a lot of support. They are fine.

  22. debbie0040 says:

    I would still think the female voters will vote in the Democratic Primary enmasse for Cox.

    As for the gay voters pissed off w ith Cox, I am sure Cox has a strategy of saying, “I am still in favor of gay marriage, but look at the poll numbers. I will not do your cause any good if I am not elected. I can not get elected in Georgia supporting gay marriage. Wink, wink, nod, nod.” Cox will get the gay vote back.

  23. 4ofspades says:

    I haven’t looked, but have the fav/unfav for Reed changed much? If they haven’t you could argue that the year long negative media campaign hasn’t had a major effect. You would think that the negative media would increase his unfav numbers.

  24. debbie0040 says:

    Erick, it was in the AJC that some were. The admitted it. I will not mention it again on this blog. I am sure you do not want to hurt Cagle…

  25. HSC Republican says:

    Debbie,
    If my memory serves me….BUSH HAS NOT ENDORSED ANYONE! Actually it is more of a boost for Cagle because everyone thought Bush would support Reed!

  26. GAWire says:

    Spades, yes, they have changed considerably. Look at the trends. I’ll make you guys see the trends if I have to pound them into your head. I’ve only been talking about it for 9 mos now!

  27. debbie0040 says:

    GAWIRE, Are you saying trends can not be reversed?

    Democratic women voters :

    BYLINE: JIM THARPE
    DATE: June 3, 2006
    PUBLICATION: Atlanta Journal-Constitution, The (GA)
    EDITION: Main; The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
    SECTION: Metro News
    PAGE: E2

    Lt. Gov. Mark Taylor has a slight lead over Secretary of State Cathy Cox in the Democratic race for Georgia’s next governor, according to the latest statewide poll, which showed 39 percent of voters still haven’t made a decision.

    The Insider Advantage/Majority Opinion Poll, conducted May 30-31 for Southern Political Report, found 34 percent of those surveyed favored Taylor and 27 percent favored Cox. The poll, conducted among 450 likely Democratic primary voters, has a margin of error of 5 percentage points.

    “It’s good news for Taylor in the sense that he has climbed from being behind Cox in prior polls to having a lead outside the margin of error,” said Matt Towery, CEO of Insider Advantage.

    Towery stressed, however, that “the race is still up for grabs” because of the substantial undecided vote.

    Both seasoned politicians, Cox and Taylor are in a fight to the finish in the July 18 Democratic primary to see who will face incumbent Republican Gov. Sonny Perdue in the November general election.

    “This validates everything we know,” said Taylor spokesman Rick Dent. “Mark Taylor has taken the lead because voters understand that he looks after the little guy.”

    Cox spokesman Peter Jackson said the poll shows “this is going to be a close and competitive race for the Democratic nomination for governor.”

    The poll indicated Cox holds a 10-point lead among female voters who already have made a decision. However, Cox was trailing Taylor 20 percent to 36 percent among African-American voters. The two split the white vote evenly.

    Women of all races account for 60 percent of the Democratic primary vote and African-Americans about 50 percent of the vote.

    About 45 percent of women voters were still undecided. Cox is favored among that demographic. About 44 percent of blacks — a bloc where Taylor is thought to have an advantage — were undecided.

    Taylor’s camp was careful to stress that there is still a month and a half to go in the race, which will sprint to the finish after July 4 as both candidates saturate the airwaves with ads.

    “We have six very long weeks to go,” Dent said. “It’s not over. You ain’t seen nothing yet.”

  28. Demonbeck says:

    Debbie,

    Either you have no idea what “ethically challenged” means or you are mistaking the GA LG race for another. There have been no questions about Casey’s ethics at all in this entire campaign.

    Now, you have tried to question Casey’s morals (as many have done with Reed) and his values (same with Reed too), but, to my knowledge, Casey’s ethics have never been questioned formally or even informally, while Reed’s ethics have been questioned quite publicly on numerous occasions.

  29. debbie0040 says:

    So you think it is ok to vote on and introduce legislation that enriches you personally and your profession? You think it is ok to donate to Democrats and lie about why you did it? You think it is ok to increase your wealth 900% while serving as a so called public servant on the Senate Banking Committee?

    Cagle admitted he puffed up his disclosure form. Is it ok to lie on your disclosure form?

    You made a good point Demonbeck. Cagle’s ethics have never been questioned. He has never really faced scrutiny – until now. That will reverse the trend….

    Your boy is not clean

  30. Demonbeck says:

    “So you think it is ok to vote on and introduce legislation that enriches you personally and your profession?”

    Yes, that is what a citizen legislature does. Farmers make up our Ag policy, lawyers make up our judicial committee, bankers work on banking. Certainly, Reed doesn’t want our General Assembly to start paying more than $16,000 per year so these folks can quit their jobs? If Reed becomes LG is he going to take charge of Ethics and Lobbying Reform?

    “You think it is ok to donate to Democrats and lie about why you did it?”

    He didn’t lie, he was misquoted and set the story straight publicly, your selective memory seems to forget this constantly. We should also mention why the donation was made by Cagle and Eric Johnson in the first place – the dirty campaign run by Reed that resulted in a slander lawsuit and put Mitch Skandalakis in jail.

    “think it is ok to increase your wealth 900% while serving as a so called public servant on the Senate Banking Committee?”

    Yup, I think it is fine for our public officials to have jobs outside of their work serving our state. I would prefer that our public officials remain normal people and be touched as much as possible by other normal people rather than live life behind a green curtain at the end of the yellow brick road.

    You Reedites are all the same, you expect Cagle to live up to standards that you don’t require from your own candidate.

  31. 4ofspades says:

    Demonbeck,
    I’m pretty sure Mitch went to jail on corruption charges in Fulton County, not because of a slander lawsuit.

  32. 4ofspades says:

    Demonbeck –
    Skandalakis subsequently pled guilty to lying to federal investigators in a public corruption investigation. He was sentenced to a six month prison term, effectively ending his political career. An attorney by profession, Skandalakis was disbarred from the practice of law by the Georgia Supreme Court.

    Retrieved from “http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mitch_Skandalakis”

  33. debbie0040 says:

    Demonbeck Cagle was NOT misquoted. He sent out an email saying he had been threatened. I guess Cagle is claiming he was misquoted by his campaign employee. If you believe that, I have some ocean front property in Tennessee I would like to sell you. The paper and email quoted Cagle direct. I guess Jim Galloway misquoted Cagle as well.

    Cagle donated to Taylor because Casey is a wuss and was frightened of Taylor.

    Demonbeck, I am not at all suprised to see a Cagle supprter express those sentiments. I wonder what the average joe schmoe voter will think?

  34. Demonbeck says:

    Here is the rest of the entry on Skandalakis and Reed:

    Skandalakis was re-elected to a full term in 1994, running as a moderate Republican and openly courting gay voters. In 1998, he hired former Christian Coalition executive director Ralph Reed as his campaign manager and ran for Lieutenant Governor as a right wing conservative. Reed appeared in advertisements for Skandalakis vouching for his social conservatism and personal integrity.

    Skandalakis placed first among five candidates in the Republican primary, then defeated conservative State Senator Clint Day, scion of the Days Inn motel family in a bitterly contested primary run-off. Although successful with Reed’s help in winning the Republican primary, Skandalakis’s strategy of negative campaigning backfired in the general election. He lost in a landslide to the Democratic candidate, State Senator Mark Taylor, who had served as Governor Zell Miller’s floor leader.

    Skandalakis and Reed were widely blamed for the defeat that year of Republican candidates for Georgia and Attorney General. Reed, who had months earlier appeared in advertisements vouching for Skandalakis’s integrity, immediately began distancing himself from Skandalakis, who settled a libel suit filed by Taylor over the truthfulness of his television advertisements.

    I didn’t mean to infer that the libel suit put Skandalakis in jail, I was merely pointing to the fact that yet another associate of Reed went to jail for underhanded dealings. I was trying to show a trend.

  35. debbie0040 says:

    Ralph Reed was not an elected official that took advantage of his elective office like Cagle did.

  36. HSC Republican says:

    I agree with Demonbeck. Reed needs to either be quit about the banking or say we should have a full time State Gov. Also Debbie you still have not anwsered my question if you beleive Bush endorsed Reed! Also you have not anwsered my other question. What about Ralph lying in his TV ad! He bashed the whole Republican State Senate and Sonny! Is every Republican in the state liberal except Ralph? Can you please anwser my 2 questions!

  37. Demonbeck says:

    Debbie,

    Quite obviously, you have never been involved in media or putting out press releases. Often in the hustle to put out a release, a quote is made up to fit the message.

    Also, oftentimes in politics, threats are inferred, but not directly made.

    Either way, Hurricane Ralph’s campaign against Taylor was so slanderous and dirty that it set up the environment that other Republicans had to clean up in his wake.

  38. Demonbeck says:

    No, instead, Ralph has made a career of taking advantage of the collective faith of true Christians and turning it into personal profit.

  39. atlantaman says:

    As someone who does not have very strong feelings about either candidate, I’m curious if someone could answer a general polling question for me?

    How is it that in the “Who would you vote for question” Ralph gets 44% of the vote, but in the “Unfavorable question” Ralph gets 47% unfavorable. Both questions had 15% undecided. Is it simply that your average voter can be a little foolish or is there some other reason for it?

  40. Jimbo says:

    Are you saying Jim Galloway of the AJC misquoted Cagle as well? Galloway spoke to Cagle directly . Let’s see you would have us believe that Cagle’s paid campaign staff made that about the threat up and also Jim Galloway made up the threat info. And it took Cagle how many weeks to realize it and correct it? Face it Cagle lied. He also lied on his financial disclosure form to puff up contributions.

    Yes I think that Bush supports Reed. He will not get involved directly. He will do like he did in the Chambliss race.

    Ralph did not lie about Cagle in the ad.

  41. Jimbo says:

    I think Perdue and the State Senate have overstepped on a few bills. I think some of the bills were not conservative like the no smoking one in public places. That was a bill you would expect liberals to pass.

  42. debbie0040 says:

    The Whtiehouse will not lower themselves to officially get involved with a lowly Lt. Governor’s race but I do think they are helping behinde the scenes.

    Bush did not get officially involved with the Chambliss race but everyon knew he was pulling strings behind the scenes.

    Demonbeck, the candidate usually has to sign off on the releases. Jim Galloway quoted Cagle directly. Admit it he lied.

    Jimbo, I have to disagree about the no smoking bill. When smoking is allowed in public, it affects non smokers as well. Have you ever heard about second hand smoke? It was responsible legislation and probably will end up saving the taxpayers money in health related costs.

    atlantaman, the people that were polled could not just want to say who they are voting for. This is a very explosive race. The poll numbers could be skewed but they are not nine percent in Cagle’s favor like some Cagle supporters were advancing.

    I don’t think the polling numbers are right on Sen. Isakson and Chambliss. I think their approval ratings are much higher.

  43. GAWire says:

    Oh, so before, Debbie, you were saying that Bush will be in an ad with Ralph and now you’re saying the WH won’t lower themselves to get in a LG race.

    First, let me clarify … the WH has gotten involved in LG races before. What they will not lower themselves to do is get involved with Ralph Reed!

    Lastly, this is the funniest item of the day … the following quote coming from a supporter of Ralph Reed:

    “””Your boy is not clean”””

    Debbie, you are saying Casey isn’t clean, yet your candidate is the one who misled clients, making over $4mm for himself, based on unethical lies. You are absolutely hilarious.

    And, as far as polling trends … I never said trends can’t change, but the bottom line in the Dem Gov race is that Mark and Cathy have been neck-in-neck the entire time, and Mark has just recently pulled ahead, but it is still too close to call.

    Ralph on the other hand started out with a HUGE lead, and it has gradually gone down, while Casey’s numbers have boosted. Those trends say a lot more than MT pulling ahead by a few points!

    When you learn a little more about polling, you can try to debate that issue with me, but until then, stick to your talking points!

  44. debbie0040 says:

    GAwire, I have seen footage of W and Reed and W saying very nice things about Reed. I was at the Cheney event when Cheney said “I see my friend of many years Ralph Reed in the audience. “I am pretty sure the Reed campaign could get that footage if needed. They would be crazy not to use it. Is there any footage of Cagle with W or Cheney? No

    I know about polling and that it can be deceiving.

    It does not take a genius to figure out that if someone is being slammed by Cagle and the press and they don’t start fighting back , it will affect their poll numbers.

    Cagle has not had his ethical shortcomings made public until now. There had not been constant barrage of negatives against Cagle , until now.

    Once all that comes into play, the poll numbers can change.

    Cagle’s ad is just rehashing what voters have heard the past year. Reed’s ad is giving voters new info on Cagle.

  45. Bull Moose says:

    Oh Good God Debbie… Where do you live, under a rock or in a cave? Reporters cover the legislature like flies on horse crap… If there was anything to Casey Cagle that merits disclosure, don’t you think reporters would have covered it and jumped the ball on it?

    There’s nothing there. Casey Cagle did not vote on bills that personally enriched himself, in fact, he abstained on bills such as time limits for sellings banks and legislation that personally did affect him. What you and Ralph suggest is that no one vote or be involved in any legislation that affects their jobs. If that’s the case, I guess you’re calling for the heads of the entire Republican Caucus?

    As for the contribution to Mark Taylor, the President Pro Tempore also donated to Mark Taylor. Do you think he’s unqualified and should step aside? Is that what Reed is pushing these days? I mean he just attacked the entire caucus so I wouldn’t be surprised if he singled out another Senator too.

    You need to come off the Reed dope if you expect to have any credibility as a struggling pundit…

  46. debbie0040 says:

    Does anyone know if they poll likely voters or just registered voters?

    Bullmoose, Cagle has not had to face an anal exam yet. Can you give me the info and number of times Cagle abstained from voting on legislation that directly effected the banking industry? I would love to see that .

    Eric Johnson definitely does not have track record of being weak and caving in as Cagle does.

  47. Bull Moose says:

    Hey Debbie, did you know that Ralph Reed drives a BMW but leases a truck to make folks think he’s a common man?

    Yeah, he’s all about image…

    Oh, and it’s Ralph Reed’s campaign strategy to spread absolute lies about his opponents (see Taylor and McCain).

    Well here’s a lie about Ralph… Ralph’s ethical and a moral leader for Georgia’s future. He’ll take the state budget and gambal it online in a game of Poker and triple it in one hand… HAHAHAH!!!

  48. 4ofspades says:

    Debbie – likely.

    Bull Moose,
    If you have the latest Google toolbar it has a spellchecker built in 😉

  49. Decaturguy says:

    “When smoking is allowed in public, it affects non smokers as well. Have you ever heard about second hand smoke?”

    Wow, Debbie, I agree with you on something.

  50. HSC Republican says:

    Debbie,
    What is the diffrence between Casey giving to Taylor and Johnson giving to Taylor? Also is Sonny and the Senate Republicans liberal because of the ad Ralph put out? I have been asking this question all day, yet no anwser….typical!

  51. Maurice Atkinson says:

    Debbie,,,, please file an ethics complaint. In fact, prepare a brief, call a darn press confernce and lodge your complaint.

    You have yet to give “1” instance where there has been impropriety.
    Nothing but smear and innuendo….

  52. jsm says:

    Debbie, show hard proof that Cagle used his office to personally enrich himself or that he increased his personal wealth in any unethical way–not just hearsay or circumstantial evidence. If you have some real proof, there needs to be a legal investigation.

    Regarding the smoking ban, Republicans took away the rights of smokers without even entertaining the possibility of another workable solution. That’s not what I believe Republicans should stand for. As an HVAC engineer, I know that legislation could have been passed to protect the rights of smokers and non-smokers through strict ventilation codes, but Stacey Reece wouldn’t even talk to me about that option. We should be ashamed that Republicans took people’s rights away unnecessarily.

  53. eem2006 says:

    I am just curious as to why she thinks that President Bush didn’t endorse Chambliss is the primary.

    As I recall he was down here like in March to raise money? And so was Cheney before the primary.

  54. GAWire says:

    Uh, Deb, it’s likely voters … apparently you really are talking out of line, b/c you haven’t even looked at the numbers – you are just spouting off talking points.

    And, oh yeah, I have footage with W, too … maybe we can take that and super-impose Ralph’s face to it, b/c that would be the only way you are going to see and ad that has Ralph and W.

  55. The Busdriver says:

    Was I the only one uncomfortable with Debbie talking about anal exams? And are we to infer from her email that Ralph plans to provide Casey with an anal exam?

  56. Demonbeck says:

    Apparently, Ralph has regular anal exams. It is unclear yet as to whether debbie gives them or was merely found during one.

  57. HSC Republican says:

    I try and avoid anal exams period! I think Debbie has a problem….that or we know her fantasy!

  58. debbie0040 says:

    I am speaking about the anal exam when you run for state wide office in a hotly contested race.

    Taylor and Cox both were elected but not in really hotly contested races. They are in one now and things have come out that have not seen the light of day before.

    Gawire, you are the one spouting off. I have looked at the numbers. In fact, I provided the link for the poll. I concentrated on the numbers and questions.

    I do not spout off talking points. I have not communicated with the Reed campaign since Saturday. I did not even send them the link for the poll.

    I will leave spouting off talking points to you and Demonbeck, Gawire.

  59. Demonbeck says:

    Is “the anal exam when you run for state wide office in a hotly contested race” required by law? Is this something overseen by the Secretary of State’s office? If so, who would want that job? Gross!

    Debbie, have you ever “run for state wide office in a hotly contested race?” Perhaps someone took advantage of you?

  60. debbie0040 says:

    eem2006, I don’t recall that. That was a U.S. Senate seat , too not Lt. Governor.

    How do you guys think Reed has gotten people like Giuliani, Barbour, Hannity? It it odd the Reynolds Plantation was the site of a Reed fundraiser and also Bush fundraiser. Nardelli hosted a fundraiser for Bush and Reed both. All that just happened huh? The Whitehouse was not involved, sure….

    Bullmoose, what kind of vehicle do you drive?

    JSM, I ask the same of you regarding the allegations that Reed broke the law by laudering money.

  61. Demonbeck says:

    Debbie,

    No one is questioning Reed’s relationships to national political figures. (OK well, some people ARE investigating them, but that’s beside the point.) They are questioning your charge that the Bush White House has endorsed Reed. Clearly, the Bush Administration has done nothing in this race and will continue to do nothing in this race. To think that Bush would step into any of Ralph’s personal dealings at this moment is not only foolish but it is asinine.

  62. HSC Republican says:

    Debbie,
    You know what people who gave money to Bush also have given Money to Cagle! A primary is an election inside a political party. You can just ask Reed, he has tried to dystroy good republicans reputations (Day) during to primary. He did this not because of morals or ideas, he did it to make his wallet fatter. Then he did not have to worry about that because of gambling and free golf trips from a good personal friend! I guess he took the job to pay for his BMW and his leased truck!

  63. HSC Republican says:

    Debbie,
    I am also waiting for the anwser to the 2 questions I have asked you today! I do not think you can! Do you need to call Reed first?

  64. Bull Moose says:

    I drive a car Debbie. Ralph drives a BMW. Ask his neighbors. He leased a truck for the campaign so he’d look like a “real Georgian”. However, it’s hypocritical to drive a car and then lease another one for “image” during the campaign. But heck, hypocrisy is nothing new to Ralph Reed…

    My other thoughts on the poll… Mark Taylor is going to give Perdue a run for his money. With so much Republican depression and Perdue having turned off so many of the old line Republicans, it is going to be an interesting race… My money is still on Perdue but I know MANY who are now placing even odds.

  65. Demonbeck says:

    Bull,

    I think it is way too early to project November election results. Wait ’til July 19th to see what the matchups will be.

  66. Bull Moose says:

    Oh, I’m not predicting, I’m just saying…

    I’m all for Perdue, but I do have another hat as a pundit of sorts…

  67. Debbie,

    Here is your quote

    “”Bush did not get officially involved with the Chambliss race but everyon knew he was pulling strings behind the scenes””

    EEM2006’s quote

    “”I am just curious as to why she thinks that President Bush didn’t endorse Chambliss is the primary.

    As I recall he was down here like in March to raise money? And so was Cheney before the primary.””

    Ralph exploited his contacts as Bush SE chairman to get the support of the Bush Donors like Reynolds, Calloway, and Nardeli. He mislead them in believing he had the support of Bush.

    Unfortunatley Rudy was also mislead by Ralph to believe that the Ralph had the support of the Christian Right. At the GA Christian Coalition event in February, it was apparent that Casey had a good deal, if not the majority, of supporters in the room.

  68. GAWire says:

    Wow, Deb, you hit me hard with that whole “No, you’re the one spouting off” defense. Good one.

    Deb, please just answer this one question, and try – try very hard – not to follow Ralph, and actually tell the truth:

    By what was said in Ralph’s ad, is Ralph going against the GOP members of the State Senate and Gov Perdue on the vote in question? IS REED GOING AGAINST A BILL SUPPORTED BY THE GOVERNOR?

    A simple YES or NO is all I am looking for here.

  69. Bill Simon says:

    GAWire…not to throw any defense up for poor ‘ole Debbie…but, your question insinuates that the ENTIRE caucus AND the Governor can do no wrong if they all vote in favor of something and it gets signed into law. Sounds a tad bit like Imperialism to me.

  70. JP says:

    Debbie, I cannot believe how blindly you follow Ralph Reed. This state will be ridiculed–and rightfully so, I might add–if Reed is elected.

    That goes for whether or not you want to “pinch his cheeks”–or whether Jesus Christ himself comes down to endorse Ralph Reed, hand in hand with Giuliani, and Elvis and John Lennon to boot. I’m still voting against him and encouraging my friends to do the same.

    We don’t need to extend K Street to the Georgia Governor’s Mansion, or give Ralph Reed a stepping stone to the White House.

  71. GAWire says:

    Bill, my question doesn’t insinuate anything, so stop trying to make it something it isn’t.

    It is simply a question, and one to which I would like to know the answer … Is Ralph Reed going against Governor Perdue and the GOP majority in the State Senate, or not?

    It isn’t a rediculous question. It is a logical one, and as member of the GOP, I would like to know everything I can about our Primary candidates.

  72. Harry says:

    Here’s what I just sent to Cagle’s campaign:

    Sorry to inform you, I was one of Cagle’s earliest announced supporters but can no longer vote for him. I’m not voting for the sleazeball either, but will rather just not vote for the position, and rest assured there are many others like me. This evening I went to the “Georgia Brain Train” event in Lawrenceville and saw Cagle’s video presentation. I thought he was a fiscal conservative, but not so. The “Georgia Brain Train” is a boondoggle that will cost megabucks per passenger mile, and yet Cagle came out wholeheartedly for it….as long as “federal dollars are made available”. What a joke. I can tell you, with that comment in that meeting he became the object of derision of friend and foe alike. The moderator cut off his presentation at that point amid the general sensation on all sides.

  73. GAWire says:

    Harry, despite what some may say on this site, there aren’t many others like you … at least not many who would actually show up to vote on Election Day.

    Oh, and congrats … your vote doesn’t mean anything. You’re a “real” great American. Enjoy the 4th of July and I hope you enjoy “not voting” – those who make sacrifices to protect your right to “just not vote for the position” appreciate it.

  74. bowersville says:

    If Reed believes the entire Republican Senate has done wrong, it’s Reed’s right to announce it. But he hasn’t, he singled out his opponent in his add. It is only right to ask Reed, “If one Senator was wrong on this issue, were they all, or does this only apply to your opponent?”

  75. Harry says:

    GAWire,

    Although I’ll not vote in the primary, I promise to vote for the Republican in November. You also, will you vote for the Republican in November??

  76. debbie0040 says:

    If you Cagle supporters don’t like the ad, then you are going to go ballistic over the mailpiece:) I love it!! Reed has finally started to give Cagle a taste of his own medicine. Enjoy

    http://www.ajc.com/metro/content/shared-blogs/ajc/politicalinsider/index.html

    Independent thinker, you are a fool if you think Reed does not have the majority of the Christian Coalition support or Christian Right support. I was a that meeting and Cagle did NOT have the majority of supporters there. Cagle had bused people in and it just about evenly split. The Bush Whitehouse is backing Ralph and you are fool to think otherwise.

  77. debbie0040 says:

    Bullmoose, I agree the poll numbers in regard to Taylor are somewhat troubling. I think the race is going to be a lot closer than most thought. I still think Sonny will win, but it will be close…

  78. Demonbeck says:

    Debbie,

    Here is the article you linked to. Did you not notice how the majority of the piece explains how Reed’s mailer is a complete lie?

    Home > Political Insider

    Reed’s latest mailer on Cagle
    Reed stakes the first round of his fight against Cagle on property rights
    Wednesday, June 28, 2006, 09:40 PM

    The Atlanta Journal-Constitution

    This is kind of like “The Lake House,

  79. SOUTHERNCOMFORT says:

    Debbie, if you think Ralpie has had negative ads thrown at him in the last year sit back and see what’s coming. It’s nuclear summer and there is no better man in the business to have the red button than J.M. Ralphie will be fried by July18 and you all will look like the dumb **** you are for following such a sleaze ball over the cliff…

  80. debbie0040 says:

    Demonbeck, I saw nothing that said the mailpiece was a complete lie or that it inferred it was lie. I see mentioned of a mixup in the dates.

    You Cagle guys need to fasten your seatbelts because it is going to be a pretty rough ride from here on out..I don’t know what the Reed campaign has planned but I know what is out there to be used against Cagle and I know what I would do…I know Ralph Reed is a brilliant campaigner and is a fighter.

    Interesting thing about campaigns. When one candidate is not a known quanity, it gives the opposition a chance to define him if has had lapses in judgement or makes bad choices in votes…

    Going to be a very interesting…

    The polling trend will change within two weeks. Reed will win by 10- 15 %

  81. jsm says:

    Debbie said, “JSM, I ask the same of you regarding the allegations that Reed broke the law by laudering money.”

    Okay, Debbie. I don’t want to waste a bunch of space repeating what has already been said, but here are just a few tidbits from the report–again:

    “On April 6, 1999, Abramoff informed Reed that he ‘spoke with our managing partner [at Preston Gates] and he has approved the subcontractor arrangement’ and instructed Reed to ‘get me invoices as soon as possible so I can get Choctaw to get us checks asap.'”

    “On a similar project in early 2000, Reed and Abramoff discussed using four groups instead of one as conduits to pay Reed: NCPPR, ATR, Toward Tradition and one unidentified group. Abramoff later advised Reed that ‘Rabbi Lapin [head of Toward Tradition] does not
    have a c4’ and asked Reed for ‘the name of the c4 you want to use (include address) and we’ll divide it among the three groups.’ Within days, Abramoff advised Reed that Amy Ridenour, president of NCPPR, ‘does not have a c4, only a c3, so we are back to ATR only.’ Abramoff asked Reed, ‘Let me know if it will work just to do this through ATR until we can find another group.'”

    “Based on everything Rogers knew, ATR simply served as a conduit to disguise the source of the Choctaw money ultimately paid to grassroots groups and Reed.”

  82. Demonbeck says:

    “The mail piece strikes less cleanly on the issue, mixing the events of 2003 with those of 2005.”

    “The condemnations in the Reed flyer are all from 2005, not 2003”

    “S.B. 5 “could dissolve the state of Georgia and build everything from mountain to seashore without asking taxpayers a single time for permission,

  83. SOUTHERNCOMFORT says:

    Bring it Debbie I can’t wait to hush your misguided, homophobic mouth once and for all. Your boy is a known crook is what he is, surrounded by a bunch inferior thinking munchkins that will be exposed soon… by the way is Ralphie going to appear on THE FACTOR and answer the hard questions from OREILY I hear it’s set to air the last week of primary how will you all spin that??? You all will not know what hit you by the end of this and it couldn’t happen to a better block of people…

  84. HSC Republican says:

    Debbie,
    I can say Cagle will win by 30, but there is no proof! Where do you get these numbers? Is it from Reed who is calling Eric Johnson a liberal for voteing for this bill. You have not brought any evidence to the table. Put up or shut up!!!!!!!

  85. Demonbeck says:

    As I have said before, I predict that Reed will win by an unprecedented 45% of the vote with an equally unprecedented 145% of the state’s registered voters showing up to the polls.

  86. debbie0040 says:

    Southerncomfort, I look forward the O’Reilly interview airing.

    I am not homophobic because I oppose gay marriage. You are the one that is out of touch with the mainstream in Georgia. 70% of the voters approved the anti gay marriage ammendment. You just don’t like being in the minority. Are all voters that approved that ammendment homophobic?

    We will see on July 18th who is right about the percentages.

    As far as the Reed ad, when the Cagle ad slams Reed for what he said about illegal immigration while he was Bush-Cheney Regional Director, isn’t Cagle also slamming Bush-Cheney?

  87. HSC Republican says:

    Bush/Cheney is wrong on immigratio! So I am glad Casey is not just a mouth peice for Bush!

  88. debbie0040 says:

    I disagree with their stance but I support Bush-Cheney but using you logic with the Reed ad if Cagle criticizes Reed for that stance, he is also criticizing Bush Cheney

  89. jsm says:

    Cagle will get conservative votes for parting with Bush-Cheney on that. It would be different if he criticized something that ALL the GOP congressmen support. Apples and oranges.

  90. HSC Republican says:

    I am glad someone is telling Bush that he is wrong on immigration. Also are you saying Ralph is nothing but a mouth peice for Bush?

  91. Bill B. says:

    This post began about poll numbers and trends. The latest poll shows Ralph ahead. Actually all polls have shown Ralph ahead except for one released by Cagle. It showed Cagle leading by 6 points. (Go to Cagle’s website for the press release)

    Sooo, has Cagle lost ground since May 24th?

    OR

    Was the poll and press release a LIE or FABRICATION?

    It’s one or the other!

  92. SOUTHERNCOMFORT says:

    DEBBIE, I ALSO SUPPORT THE ANTI GAY MARRIAGE AMENDMENT BUT EVERYTIME SOMEONE ENDORSES CC YOU YELL GAY… I BET 10 TO 1 RALPHIE BOY WILL NOT GO ON THE FACTOR HE’S TO MUCH OF A WUSS ORIELLY WILL EAT HIM ALIVE WITH THE FACTS, AND AS WE ALL KNOW THAT IS SOMETHING RALPHIE IS NOT GOOD AT.

  93. debbie0040 says:

    I am saying that Reed has taken a very strong stad against illegal immigration, and amnesty. He was representing the Bush-Cheney Campaign in 2004 and yes he was representing their views not his.

    I repeat again, I look forward to the O’Reilly interview. Reed is not a wuss like Cave in Cagle and will deal with it head on and do well.

  94. GAWire says:

    Debbie thinks that the poll numbers for Taylor do not look good, but can’t see how the numbers/trends in the LG race look bad for Reed.

    B-L-I-N-D & Baffling …

  95. SOUTHERNCOMFORT says:

    Debbie your boy has never dealt head on with anything but taking little old ladies money through deception and greed he’s a pencil neck coward and like I have stated before there is a special hell for the likes of Reed, Jimmy Swaggart and the others that use Christianty for self profit

  96. Bill B. says:

    Wire,
    If Cagle was telling the truth (doubtful) he has lost about 10 points since the end of May. Who is this trend bad for? Duh!

  97. Bull Moose says:

    OKAY — HOW LONG CAN RALPH CONTINUE TO ATTACK THE REPUBLICAN CAUCUS BEFORE SOMEONE COMES OUT AND CALLS BS???

    I mean, he’s attacking every single Republican State Senator now. Is this party building? Is this constructive?

    No.

    I’m sorry, but Senator Eric Johnson and Senator Tommie Williams, I believe you need to step forward, endorse Casey and put Ralph Reed in his place on behalf of the Republican Senate Caucus and the good people of Georgia.

  98. SOUTHERNCOMFORT says:

    billb you all keep thinking you’re ahead ask Ralphie about his poll he knows he’s behind and he’s throwing all shots in hopes of stemming the tide ask him, the number is 9%.

  99. Bill B. says:

    And the lies continue…

    If the Cagle poll was true he has lost 10 points since the end of May. Or that poll was a lie (like the Cagle press releases have all been) and he’s still behind Reed.

    9% – no matter how often you repeat it doesn’t make it true.

  100. Bull Moose says:

    I just got this piece of trash in the mail from Ralph… What a money laundering sack of scum he is to twist around words and distort the facts the way that he did…

    There is nothing Christian about this man. He lies, he launders, what’s next?

  101. Bill B. says:

    And still no comment about the fact that the Cagle campaign has been promoting a poll that showed Cagle with a 6 point lead. The ONLY poll to show that. Now, the latest poll shows him 4 points down. That’s 10 points in less than a month!

    Or was the poll showing Cagle ahead a lie?

    The problem for the Cagleites is the constant lying and spin. Either their boy lost 10 points or their poll they went on and on about was a lie. Either way, it lets the average voter know how the Cagle team operates.

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