26 comments

  1. atlantaman says:

    You don’t think the Dems might have a higher turnout since they are deciding a nominee for Governor? (again apologies to States Rights McBerry)

  2. Tommy_a2b says:

    I think it will be in the high 20’s not quite 30%. As Cathy Cox’s ship sinks so does turnout. I still do not feel the the Lt. Gov race has people doing anything more than saying, “Why should I vote?”.

  3. Demonbeck says:

    Ralph Reed will win by an unprecedented margin over Casey Cagle as an equally unprecedented 145% of Georgia’s population turns out for the vote.

  4. RonaldJFehr says:

    I feel relatively certain to absolutely positive that Republican turnout will be depressed from the 2004 numbers across the state. Certain pockets will decrease more severely than others, and some concentrated regions within the state will actually experience an increase in turnout.

    The Democratic elections will effect Southwest Georgia and Dekalb county more than any other part of the state. With regards to South GA, both of the top of the ticket candidates hail from the rural “hinterlands” and there is not one credible state-wide Republican candidate from below I-20. Dekalb county reacts to Cynthia McKinney- plain and simple she is the lightning rod that compels Republicans to vote in the Dem primary.

    Republican turnout should be close to 2004 levels, and potentially above, in Hall, Clark, Jackson, North Fulton and maybe Cherokee counties. That is the home to all the Republican candidates with Georgia roots. I do not sincerely believe that Ralph Reed will have the hometown effect on Gwinnett County.

    Republican turnout should decrease sizeably in the old 6th and 8th districts. Price/Lamutt and Westmoreland/Glenn really charged turnout last go-round, as did the presence of former Reps Collins and Isakson on the ballot for Senate.

    There is one caveat: The North Fulton portion of the 6th District. THERE IS NOT A MORE CHARGED ISSUE IN THE STATE THIS YEAR THAN THE INCORPORATION OF FULTON COUNTY. There is nothing that will drive people to the polls the way Johns Creek and Milton cityhood votes will. Sandy Springs doubled 2004 turnout for their cityhood referendum, and it was held in the middle of June in 2005- an off year and an unfamiliar time for an election. Add to the cityhood referendum the increasing popularity of Com. Handel on the ballot against Sen Stephens and every resident has at least two reasons to vote.

    In a broad stroke expect 2004 turnout to decrease by 15 to 20% state-wide in the areas not mentioned specifically above. Population growth aside, there is not an open Senate seat, two Congressional seats, or any of the open State Senate and State Rep seats that came with the 2004 election. Adding to that 2006 is a mid-term election and awareness is not at its 2004 level.

    That’s my case. Please poke holes or ask for any further explanation. My guess is 515,000 voters.

  5. SouthernConservative says:

    Pretty good analysis, Fehr.

    Dan O’Conner, the brain trust of the Republican party, has, as I’ve heard, predicted a medium to low (very average, in other words) turnout. I’ve never known O’Conner to be wrong. The issue is this: among Republican primary voters, an average turnout means that the primary vote will be largely made up of hardcore, long time Republicans.

    This is a plus for Reed, because most of those types of voters at least recognize his name and the work he’s done for the GOP in Georgia.

    This good for Ralph. Low turnout = Reed wins.

  6. SouthernConservative says:

    And I just did what I get mad at some of you other people for doing – completely throwing the bull off the issue and talking solely about the LG race. Get it together, SC. My apologies.

  7. Brian from Ellijay says:

    An increased turnout in N. Fulton is good for Cagle also. Do you really think the “swing vote women” of Metro Atlanta will vote for Reed? Newsflash, a huge amount of women who vote Republican in the 2004 sixth district are pro-choice. And that included the more conservative regions of the district like East Cobb and West Cobb. Now that it is a Fulton County seat, expect them to me a greater majority. Let me tell you, they will not vote for Reed.

    Ralph is putting a lot of signs up. This helps Cagle. The more people know that Reed is running, the greater turnout against him. All Cagle needs to do in most counties is provide a viable opposite choice. Hence, to much previous strategy revealed.

  8. GAWire says:

    25% tops. Doesn’t matter who is on the ticket, turnout won’t be above 30%, and I think more like 25%!

  9. George Allen 08 says:

    Brian, I didn’t realize Cagle was pro-choice.

    And how would the Lieutenant Governor of Georgia have any effect on Roe v Wade?

  10. Maurice Atkinson says:

    Heck, it’s been low turn out for years. The sad fact is people don’t care until they feel their rights have been infringed or their taxes go up.

    We’ve got problems and we had better wake up.

  11. Brian from Ellijay says:

    Allen, Cagle is pro-life. But everyone, even people not in poliitcs, knows that Reed extremely pro-life. Women are scared of this. I do not understand it, but they are. I have a lot of Republican friends (female) who are afraid of Pro-lifers, who supported Isakson whole heartedly. Again Cagle is the viable conservative opponent who would push legislation just as, if not more conservative, than gReed. Of course Casey would have the Senates backing when backing it also.

  12. George Allen 08 says:

    I’m having a hard time following you there Brian. What’s the exact difference between being pro-life and extremely pro-life? Give an example of the difference, if you could.

    And, once again, I don’t see how the Georgia Lieutenant Governor would be in a position to overturn Roe v Wade.

  13. betty says:

    The rumor is that the gay voters and their supporters have decided to quit Cox and are planning to vote en masse in the GOP primary for to try to stop Reed. This rumor has continue to perculate in various parts of the state despite several pundits who have discounted it.

    Of course if they couldn’t defeat the gay marriage amendment two years ago, why do they think they are going to have any impact on Reed, I don’t know. My guess is that their effect on the turnout numbers will be slight. And even if Cagle wins, they can hardly lay any claim to king making without some other reliable evidence that their vote made the difference.

    I predict, inspite of the angry gay vote, turnout will be 31 percent.

  14. 4ofspades says:

    GA08,
    Your expecting a lot from the Brian the sign guy. He should stick to putting signs up and not policy.

    To answer your question – Some pro-lifers believe that there should be no exceptions for abortion. Others believe that there can be 3 exceptions – rape, incest, and life of the mother.

    Now back on topic – I agree with the analysis that RJF has done.

  15. GAWire says:

    The Primary-party-switcher strategy is ineffective. It’s a pipe dream. It doesn’t work, and is just one of those things that small groups talk about and rarely, if ever come to fruition to have any impact on the outcome.

    I’m not saying this to defend Reed or anything … I’m just saying that this won’t be anything that has a real effect on this race, even if there are switch voters. This is the kind of stupid stuff that turns people off from politics.

    The reality is, turnout is always low, and it will be this year, too. People will complain all day long about the government doing this and that, and how they deserve more from the government and how politicians are bad, etc, etc, etc; however, the far majority of people don’t even do their part to help implement change. They either think their vote won’t matter, or they are just too lazy or maybe just lack the understanding (read: competence) as to the importance of voting. This is frustrating, but unfortunately a reality.

    So, my advice … stop talking about the crap like gays switching to vote in the primary and which candidate can be more pro-life (if that is possible … really being pro-life is all the same – there’s no middle ground, and if you think there is, then you just aren’t conservative on the issue), and focus on getting people to the polls to do their duty. All those people in the past two and a half centuries didn’t die, so you could make an excuse that picking the kids up from school and a busy work day just didn’t allow you vote!

  16. Brian from Ellijay says:

    Allen, I thought you would be much smarter, by your moniker. As stated several times, Both are pro-life, one is much more high profile. While Cagle and Reed might both be pro-life, one is a national target because of his previous work in the field, ie. being arrested because he trespassed while protesting.

    Both are conservative, one just has a voting record proving it while the other has a criminal record proving it. DO YOU UNDERSTAND ALLEN ? If not I will try to break it down sloooooowwwwwweeerrrr.

  17. bowersville says:

    A criminal record proving pro-life, I’m impressed. Brian this is not a flame on you! I read a previous comment stating Reed was extremely pro-life. Has anyone here witnessed a loved one, carrying a dead fetus at 7-8 months, with a positive pregnancy test from 30-35 years ago? Has anyone asked the doctors what could be done to save the life of the loved one(the mother) once toxemia set in and her face looked like a purple basketball with two lemons for eyeball’s and had the doctor’s tell you, we can only do so much because we can’t go to prison. Has any one actually had the experience of the doctor telling you the fetus is dead, but because Georgia law is absolute, we can’t even induce labor to save the life of the mother. Well, Reed and you absolutist, I would surely cuss you here, if you do a comeback, I will. So Reed, what the hell have you got to say and what do you know? Like most others, you are a political opportunist and a PRICK!!!

  18. duluthmom says:

    While normally I’d agree with GAWire about party switch voting, I believe it will have an impact on the lt. governor race like never before. IMO, there’s never been a candidate that had such a polarizing effect on voters as Reed. People either love him like he’s the second coming or hate him as the devil incarnate. Those that fall in the latter category want to see him lose and they are passionate and very vocal about it. I know several people who plan to party switch vote and I have to believe that this is not an isolated group of voters.

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