Taylor opens 7 point lead.

AJC: Poll puts Taylor slightly ahead of Cox.

Lt. Gov. Mark Taylor has a slight lead over Secretary of State Cathy Cox in the Democratic race for Georgia’s next governor, according to the latest statewide poll, which showed 39 percent of voters still haven’t made a decision.

The Insider Advantage/Majority Opinion Poll, conducted May 30-31 for Southern Political Report, found 34 percent of those surveyed favored Taylor and 27 percent favored Cox. The poll, conducted among 450 likely Democratic primary voters, has a margin of error of 5 percentage points.

“It’s good news for Taylor in the sense that he has climbed from being behind Cox in prior polls to having a lead outside the margin of error,” said Matt Towery, CEO of Insider Advantage.

Towery stressed, however, that “the race is still up for grabs” because of the substantial undecided vote.

20 comments

  1. bowersville says:

    Too soon to tell, 39% undecided, with a 5 % margin of error, these are huge margins. Favorable to Taylor now, but who knows in seven weeks?

  2. bowersville says:

    In other words, if Cox gets half the undecided,18.5%, plus the margin of error, 5%, that equals 51% or there abouts. It’s still too close to call.

  3. Bill Simon says:

    What percent of the Dem primary is gay/lesbian Democrats? Crunch those numbers and figure 100% of them will not vote for Cathy. Unless the poll dug deep inside that population for a representative sample, the poll almost doesn’t mean anything…unless, the gay/lesbian Dem voting block is quite small.

  4. Mojo says:

    JP,

    But, Taylor is a better campaigner and in the slugfest to come Taylor has a better shot than Cox. He can compete for rural and south Georgia and the urban voters will largely go to him as well, though they will feel like they are settling.

  5. mikeK says:

    You really can’t make this up.

    If you look at this story in the print version of the AJC it runs across the entire page on the top of B2. If you keep looking over to B3 there is a photo that takes up 80% of the top of the page.

    The photo is of Mark Dehler’s (Cathy’s Husband) plane after it crashed into a hanger at DeKalb-Peachtree Airport.

  6. kspencer says:

    JP, Sonny’s got a decent lead in polls regardless. That only reinforces my opinion that the Dems should vote for the person they would prefer as governor, not the person they think would beat Sonny. Taking the latter path is why the Dems had Kerry.

    For what it’s worth, I think the divide between the eventual D and Sonny is going to narrow a lot over the next few months. Enough for Sonny to lose? I’m not sure. Enough to make it possible? I think so.

  7. betty says:

    I recognized the name but figured someone at the paper would have too and made the mention if it was the same Mark Dehler. While it’s not a common name, there could be two of them in Georgia. Surely, the paper has already checked.

    If you read the details about the poll in Southern Political Report — the sponsors — you get additional insight. More of the late deciders are women, a plus for Cox, and turnout will be heavier among women than men, another plus.

    Primary voters fall into two groups: party stalwarts and ideologs. Those swayed by philosophy are still learning about positions on the issues, and little of the news reporting — other than in places like the Augusta Chronicle and Athens Banner-Herald — have focused on any issues in this race.

    The stalwarts who have not personally committed to a candidate last year during the fund-raising campaign will be making their decision based on electability. Their only concern is who has the best chance to beat Perdue in November. The ones I’ve talked with are still torn. They see on one hand that Cox appeals to more independents and women while they see Taylor as technically more competent. If Cox doesn’t soon demonstrate some strategic savvy, they are certain to discount her other attributes.

    Her campaign needs to unload on Taylor now before those attitudes harden and not wait until the last weeks of the campaign. Republicans are salivating about the prospect of running against Taylor because they believe they have so much material. Surely Cox has dug up a least half of the same material. While it would ordinarily make sense to sandbag him late when he has too little time to recover, in this case, she is the one who needs to attack now to prove she’s got the nerve to play with the big boys.

    If no salvo comes from her came in the next 10 days, start printing the Taylor T-shirts.

  8. Decaturguy says:

    Bill,

    I think what the poll demonstrates that Cathy has pissed off not just the gay voters, but the urban white liberal voters as well. While these folks have not jumped into the Taylor camp, they’ve moved to the undecided camp and frankly (like myself) don’t know what the hell to do. That is why there are so many more undecideds in this poll.

    This election is highly unpredictable now. However, it seems hard to comprehend how Cox can beat Taylor now that two major portions of her base (urban white liberals and gays) have left her. That would be like Ralph Reed losing the vote of evangelical Christians in the Republican Primary.

  9. RiverRat says:

    Just FYI:

    compare it to the previous IA/MO poll conducted 3/14-3/17:

    Cox 42%
    Taylor 31
    Undecided 27

    Cox is down from 42% to 27%. Taylor is up from 31 to 34%.

  10. ugadog says:

    I think that it would have been better if Cox would have just become a Republican when the Party asked her too. She has managed to do the Party much more damage as Democrat. She has already demonstrated that she doesn’t give a damn about the party by screwing up our donor base. It can’t be much longer before she completely screws over our party by going negative against Taylor. Maybe we should just go ahead and put her in the same category as Zig Zag Zell.

  11. SouthernConservative says:

    B’ville sez,

    “Too soon to tell, 39% undecided, with a 5 % margin of error, these are huge margins. Favorable to Taylor now, but who knows in seven weeks?”

    Too stinkin funny that ya’ll want to apply this principle now, but when it comes to Ralph versus Casey, all of a sudden it gets thrown out the window.

    Flip flopping like Kerry.

  12. Maurice Atkinson says:

    “””The poll is crap. Find out what the questions were. I talked to an insider with the Reed campaign and he said supporters had called in to the office last week and complained about the questions that were asked. The questions were not straight forward questions. They were derogatory in nature to Reed.”””

    Oh, wrong campaign.

  13. GOP_Dude says:

    First to Betty’s point on the undecides, you would be correct that the undecided females would help Cox, except for the fact (if you read the sub parts of the poll) that the undecided females are largely undecided Black females, which would actually favor Taylor.

    Also, we should keep in mind the geographical nature of this race. Several political friends I have on the ground in South Georgia, have basically said that Mark Taylor is running uncontested by Cox among the rural, Conservative Democratic vote, which takes away a big opportunity for Cox. I’m not particularly surprised at this, but it is worth noting.

    Key parts of Metro-Atlanta are going to be Pro-Taylor as well. Did you know that 1/3 of all votes in the Democratic primary are Black voters from Fulton, Dekalb, or Clayton counties? Who do you think they are going to vote for. If Taylor takes a majority of those votes, as expected, combined with South Georgia Conservatives, he’ll be tough to beat.

    The only significant block that Cathy has a shot at is moderate, suburban females. However, as Betty correctly points out, voters in a primary are stalwarts and ideologs, and your standard middle-to-upper-middle class soccer mom is neither. Many of these voters that I see everyday would probably vote for Cathy in November, but I dought that they’ll get out and vote for her now.

    Unless something substantially changes, I see the momentum shifting towards Taylor, and forcing Cathy (who is no political rookie) to begin a harsh negative campaign against Taylor within the next 1-2 weeks to help her stay in the game.

  14. Bill Simon says:

    SC,

    What’s this y’all crap??? Bowersville speaking his OWN opinion does not constitute a “y’all.”

    SC, are you and I just going to be Heckle and Jeckle on this board ad infinitum?

  15. truerblue says:

    GOP dude…I don’t know what you think you have on the ground in rural South Ga. but whatever it is you’ve gotten some wwrong information. That area of the state is all about Cathy Cox, even a large number of black voters, male & female, in Dougherty Co.–Mark’s home are coming out for her, canvassing neighborhoods, speaking at their respective churches—you will be very surprised by those votes. You’ll be even more surprised at the Republican crossover votes she’ll snag……that alone will blow you and you’re theory away. PS: “Is it just me, or is Mark Taylor wearing a jowl girdle in his newest commercial??? Maybe that’s why he can’t talk!”

  16. truerblue says:

    Oh, I almost forgot. About the recent AJC poll; Remember the Seacrest poll a couple of weeks back that gave Mark Taylor such a big lead over Cathy Cox? Was that all BS or did he take a huge plunge in the last week according to the latest poll. Count em’……..

  17. bowersville says:

    SC
    Flip Flopping? Go Back and look, I had absolutly no comment about the McLaughlin poll. I did comment on another poll that featured Reed as 45% “UNFAVORABLE!” So Kerry, I’m not a YA’LL!

  18. Melb says:

    True Blue, My family is from Albany and there is huge support there for Taylor. When I visit them all I see is Taylor signs all the way down 300 to Albany and then Taylor signs inside, I have yet to see anything about Cox outside of 285 even. And are you saying that the Republican’s care so much about Cox for the Governor’s race that they are going to switch over in a primary? Keep dreaming. They have their own races to worry about.

  19. GOP_Dude says:

    True Blue, first off, it’s worth noting that I am unbiased in this race (being a Republican), and you are clearly a Cathy supporter. Also, it appears that you’re from or around Dougherty County, and I am surprised to see significant supporter for Cathy there (that’s definitely worth noting). However, your perception can easily be distorted by what you see around you, especially in an area that has as few votes as Albany in comparison to other areas.

    I’d encourage you to look at Augusta, Savannah, and Macon areas, all cities/rural areas significantly larger than the Albany area (when I speak of those areas, I talk about all surrounding counties as well). Perhaps my mistake was that I said “South” Georgia and should have said “Rural” Georgia (anything non-Atlanta). Speaking specifically about the Savannah area, I have seen zero support for Cathy Cox there with minimal support in Augusta or Macon.

    Also, your assumption that Cathy will get GOP crossover votes is not realistic at all. Stalwart GOPs and ideologs are going to strongly want to vote in the GOP primary because of the Cagle vs. Reed race. Each of these voters are going to feel strongly on that race, and, even if they like Cathy more than Mark, they’ll be much more interested in voting for or against Ralph Reed (I like Cagle, but let’s be honest about how people are going to be voting).

    Also, with the GAE endorsement (which doesn’t mean everything), it does show Taylor has some momentum. Cathy needs to really step up or people will begin to lose faith.

Comments are closed.