Reality Check (?)

Lest we get any more emails from Reedites saying we are Cagleites (we already get Cagleites saying we are Reedites), let me add some fuel to the fire.

A friend who wishes to remain anonymous (probably because of the invective about to be hurled) sends along this pro-Reed email.

You can read it below the fold.

I’ve been watching the candor and discussion on this site for quite some time, and it never ceases to amaze me at some of the things that are said. I’d like to offer my judgment on the Lt. Governor’s race in Georgia. Simply as a quantitative statement of where things rest right now, not as an endorsement of either candidate, nor as a statement of who I may choose to support, because right now, I’m undecided. However, I also believe there are certain principles that play into politics that cannot, and will not change. I suppose after Erick posts this, I’ll be attacked and accused of being a RR Koolaid drinker. Therefore, in my contention that RR will (though perhaps not should) win this race, I challenge each of you to answer my arguments with logic and tact, though, based of my past reading of this site, will be impossible for some of you. There are several areas in which I see CC CC in a sever losing pattern.

Campaign Direction and Message – RR. Right now, CC faces a critical choice in deciding which direction to take with his message. A, he can continue down a negative path and continue to attack RR, relying on the free media the AJC’s brainchild pimps to him every day, as he has done for the past 6 – 8 months. At that juncture, all RR has to do is point that out, and convince the voters that CC stands for nothing except the fact that CC isn’t RR. B, CC can change directions, piss the AJC off, and stop attacking RR, an indirect admission that either his negative campaign was wrong, or that it wasn’t working. At this point, he begins to do what he should have done three months ago: start talking about the CC agenda, the CC vision, and why he’s the best man for the job. However, this forces him into another losing situation, because a head to head on the issues between RR and CC results in a loss for CC, both in the press and to the public. I have heard numerous CC supporters admit to the fact that RR possesses both a superior grasp of the issues and a better presentation of such.

Campaign Focus – RR. For the last six months, CC has concentrated primarily on one thing: attacking RR and making sure everyone knows how awful RR is. Not even considering the merits of that argument, which actually could prove to be quite substantial, this was a serious tactical error in that they haven’t taken any time to stop and try to organize any sort of grassroots outside metro Atlanta. Why? It’s public, though perhaps not so common, knowledge that both of the key players driving CC’s machine believe that statewide races in Georgia are won in the media, inside metro Atlanta. Which presents CC with yet another key problem: cash flow.

Cash Flow – RR. When one looks at the disclosures of the respective candidates, one may see that RR has about 300k committed to the general election, and CC has about 200k committed to the general. This places RR’s running cash balance at roughly 1.1 million, and CC’s running cash balance at roughly 675k. Thus, not only does RR have just short of twice the capital as does CC, he has a significantly slower burn rate. CC is paying his GC 10k a month, his campaign manager 5k a month, and his press director 3500 a month. That in and of itself is almost 20k a month in staff salaries. If you consider expenses and the salaries of the lesser staffers, it’s pretty logical to assume that his staff expenses are running close to 25k a month, not to mention other expenses: postage, office overhead, paying his media consulting group, hotels, travel, meals, signs, t-shirts, balloons…perhaps this cash flow issue is the reason the CC campaign sent out an email yesterday requesting donation of two desktop computers. My question is this: why do they not already have them? Or did they have them, and now they don’t? Why don’t they just buy them? If they can raise 100k in a day, why couldn’t they afford $1,500 worth of computers? They’ll raise 75 times that Wednesday of next week, right? Folks, only a real stupid Koolaider would believe that those donations just surfaced in a day. You can bet your last dollar that CC’s staff had been accepting those “pledges

29 comments

  1. Maurice Atkinson says:

    I’ll admit, I may have a bit of Attention Deficit Disorder, but I don’t accept the writer’s logic.

    The writer cannot accept the fact that Ralph has created his own mess. It was not Cagle going negative. For Cagle not to point out Ralph’s indisgressions would be absurd. The facts are the winds are strongly behind Cagle. Middle Georgia is in play. Reed had counted on Houston County’s strong Republican base and Bibb County’s media outlets. Bibb’s elected leadership is going Cagle. I know of a good number of Houston County’s elected in Cagle’s column as well. Milledgeville’s Mayor and other political leadership in Baldwin are wholly behind Cagle.

    I was in Savannah over the weekend. This was a Reed stronghold. The tides are a changin. Leadership all over the state are lining up in the Cagle column.

    The fact is Ralph needed to be enormously strong at this point. He needed the leadership. Abramoff and his other ventures have taken a huge toll.

    The race isn’t over and Ralph should not be marginalized, but I certainly would not be worried. Cagle will continue to work diligently as he has. Cagle’s team is top notch. They work harder than any campaign I’ve seen in 25 plus years. They’re effective an innovative. Just a bunch of good people.

  2. HowardDawg says:

    That’s the most ridiculous, self absorbed, blowhard nonsense I’ve seen on here. Seriously, guys, how can claim any level of objectivity in this race when you post sophmoric campaign pontification masquerading around in “I went to a campaign class once and learned the abcs of campaigns” rhetoric.

    Cmon. At one point this site was fun, but honestly, it’s getting really old. The writing is bad. The front page posters aren’t funny or witty. Basically you come off as a bunch of high schoolers trying to act like you’re cool.

    I’m through here.

  3. HowardDawg says:

    And it’s painfully obvious from writing style and logic that the writer is Silence or Maverick or whatever incarnation he/she is now. This is just silly.

  4. Bull Moose says:

    I for one am not surprised by Erick’s decision to post this email message here. He and his cronies are tied to the status quo and thus support for anyone but Reed would disrupt their apple carts.

    This biased and flawed email must come from someone who does not have their ear to the ground, because anyone that knows what’s going on in Georgia politics right now knows that momentum is shifting toward Casey Cagle and his positive agenda based on a record of accomplishments in the race for Lt. Governor.

    Casey Cagle is a candidate for Lt. Governor that has put forward a solid agenda for job creation, reducing taxes, cleaning up waste and corruption in government, and eliminating the one size fits all mentality that often persists toward education in our state.

    This is an issue based agenda that comes from experience on the ground, working in the State Senate, interacting with Georgians, and knowing what our state’s needs are.

    Casey Cagle has built a first class grassroots structure quietly throughout the ENTIRE state that will deliver a strong and resounding victory on July 18. It’s a strong base because it’s one built on mutual respect and appreciation.

    In terms of cash flow, one need only look at where Georgians are giving their money to realize that it’s with Casey Cagle. Casey Cagle has raised almost every bit of his money in state whereas his competitor has had to rely on out of state contacts to float his own campaign. Furthermore, as someone who has run a campaign, I too would have asked my supporters for the donation of computers. Heck, I have asked for desks, chairs, telephones, pens, paper, etc… It only makes common sense to make use of all your resources.

    Casey Cagle is resonating with voters just fine! Whether it’s a top executive or a College Republican, Casey connects much better on a personal level. It’s that personal connection that only someone an authentic person can create. Spin does not create a personal bond or relationship.

    Casey Cagle has assembled one of the best staff’s currently working in Georgia politics. They can go toe to toe with anyone in this state and hold their own water. It’s pointless to attack any of them. They are working hard and obviously doing a good job.

    Let there be no doubt that many Georgians are supporting Casey Cagle for the same reasons above and more and don’t give a flip about Ralph Reed, the scandals that surround him, the lack of experience he has, or his conveniently flexible ethics.

  5. Philly says:

    I agree with the article. Very well written and the did separate in paragraphs so you Cagle guys can comprehend it.

    If Cagle is resonating with voters, then why were there still 59 % undecided in the last poll? Those 59 % , I believe, lean toward Reed and were waiting to see if there would be charges filed. They have now begun to see those people in the Cagle Camp advancing that there would be charges filed were just crying wolf. Those undecided will come over to the Reed camp.

    Cagle is more experienced than Reed in one way, he is more experienced about caving in on issues.

    The handwriting is on the wall as far as the Cagle Campaign and you won’t see it until it is too late. Some of you might want to schedule your vacations around that time, because there will be “I Told you so”.

  6. debbie0040 says:

    I think the sentiments are right on target. They presented clear, logical, unemotional reasoning.

    Reed has 6,000 grassroots volunteers and is organized in 110 counties. Cagle can not touch that.

    Cagle can not touch Reed’s celebrity status either.
    Reed has charisma and comes across as strong and decisive. Contrast that with Cagle. People want to snap photos of themselves with Reed. Cagle has the charisma of a brick wall.

    Cagle’s campaign focus has been negative. His campaign has constantly put out innuendo that Reed will be indicted any day. That has not and will not happen. Cagle has cried wolf too many times. By this time the voter is sick of hearing this message and will tune it out.

    Reed has the momentum and will continue to steamroll. He has the money for campaign ads. Imagine ads featuring Zell Miller, Rudy Guiliani, Nancy Coverdell and others all extolling Reed’s virtue. Imagine ads of Reed with Dick Cheney, Karl Rove and President Bush. Key endorsements are forthcoming.

    You are foolish if you don’t think the Whitehouse is supporting Reed. I went to see Vice President Cheney speak last year when he came to Smyrna to talk about Social Security. Both Ralph Reed and Cagle were in the audience. Cheney made the statement, “I see my good friend of many years, Ralph Reed, in the audience.” Imagine that in a campaign ad.

    The Christian community has not deserted Reed. I know for a fact the momentum has shifted in that area toward Reed.

    Timing is everything in a political campaign. The best is yet to come…

  7. Bill Simon says:

    Well, Debbie, the more you talk about all of the people who (might) bolster Ralph Reed’s candidacy (i.e., celebrity politicians), the more I realize that Ralph really IS nothing but an empty suit who has no redeeming qualitites that he can promote about himself.

    He’s going to be like Bob Barr was in 2002 against John Linder. Bunny Bob had big-time endorsements from D.C. bigwigs. He had Charlton Heston come down and appear for him…he even had Ralph Reed working in the background on his campaign vis-a-vis Linda Hamrick and Ralph (as then state chairman) playing blocking dummy for Linder…AND, yet, Bob Barr lost his ass, 64%-32%.

  8. Debbie,

    You must not have been at the following events. Christian Coalition, Presidents day, or any of the county meeting face offs the canidates have had. (I went to Dawson County) At the presidents day dinner I actually felt sorry for RR sitting near 5 rows back with his hair dresser. (sorry if that was you)

    The Casey support was overwelming at all of these events and was from his grass roots support and not from organized youth pacts and paid volunteers that the Reed camp has to pull from.

    In the events I have attended Ralph comes across pompus and looks like and sounds like a snake oil salesman. Casey’s character and comes across in his speeches and as he works the room.

    Casey experience as a state senator and support of the senators and represenattives he will lead as Georgia’s next Lt. Gov. is a bigger attribute than Ralph’s experience as an intern.

    Do not hold your breath waiting for the W endorsment.It is not coming.

    Casey Cagle 06′

  9. debbie0040 says:

    I was at the Christian Coalition event and I noticed the ones wearing Cagle t shirts left shortly after Reed and Cagle spoke. That was a big clue that maybe they were just campaign operatives and not active members in the Christian Coalition. Reed signed up a lot of volunteers that day and had a good showing.

    You mean Cage had a good showing at Dawson County GOP event? What a shock, considering the fact that is his area he represents in the State Senate.

    I know many in the county party leadership roles in different counties and 80 % are supporting Reed.

    One of fence sitters that made his decision to support Reed about three months ago said he saw both men at a debate in one of the north eastern counties and he made his mind up to support Reed at that time. He said there was a vast difference in charisma and knowledge of issues. Reed came across as strong and Cagle came across as weak. Just say the word, and I will give you his name to verify this info.

  10. Brian from Ellijay says:

    Debbie, obviously you do not know where Sen. Cagle represents. The Senator represents Gainsville (that would be Hall County.)

    As far as making excuses for Ralph at the Christian Coalition, you know thats BS. Cagle had 3 staffers there, and about 100 volunteers from all over the state.

    I would like to know what County leadership is behind Ralph. I know just about every County Commissioner has endorsed Casey regardless of Ralphs meetings and threats toward them. PS-I was there when he tried to do it to my County Commiss. That was until Reed pushed me out the door–to the response from the County Commission Chairman–Mr. Reed, I thought this was my office. And if your talking about county parties. Which counties? Senator Cagle has Cherokee (minus Linda Parker) tied up. He also has Pickens, Gilmer, Fannin and Union tied up (Just so know, none of those are in Caseys District, but Toccoa where Ralph claims is home is in this area.) Fulton and Forsyth County are Cagle Country. Along with most TARS, CRs (minus a few at UGA), and the YRs. Debbie your rhetoric is getting embarrassing. Perhaps you can post under your other names –Philly or Jimbo–so as to get more credibilty.

  11. nfire says:

    I don’t get it. Where are these 6000 volunteers? I went to the Christian Coalition event, and a bunch of the volunteers were showing up in cars with tags from other states. I heard on the news later that a bunch of them had been paid to be there. If there were 6000 volunteers, I bet they would have had more than the 30 or so *unpaid Georgians* that showed up that day to support RR. I’m calling shenanigans.

  12. SOUTHERNCOMFORT says:

    i have to give it to the Reed team they never seem to amaze me….”Cagle has no direction etc….” it’s funny how everyone is jumping on the Cagle bandwagon (65 new elected officials this week )and steering commttee members from the Reed camp are dropping like flies.( 5 this week)You guys need to get on the coffee, and off the koolaid. Cagle 06 nice ring to it..huh

  13. Bill Simon says:

    Ralph Reed has a long history of inflating numbers, whether it’s claiming he had millions of members of the CC, or whether he had “50 pastors” he was going to “rile-up.”

    His claim of “6000 volunteers” now is all part of the “guerrilla warfare” he likes to engage in. I hope he continues to claim he has 6000, or 60,000, as that will make his loss all the more sweeter come July 19.

  14. landman says:

    Erick,the fact that you posted this delusional dribble confirms the fact that you are what many think and thats just another blind stargazer of Ralph’s.

    You and your anonymus friend are a complete joke.Why dont you go ahead and grow some bal** and come out for Reed.

    RR better have his war paint on this time,because I can assure you the Cagle team does.

  15. debbie0040 says:

    Brian, your lack of maturity is showing. I am not either Philly or Jimbo. If you notice of those guys even went so far as to post his email address and offered to meet, I believe it was either Larry or Demonbeck, to prove he was not me. Why don’t you take him up on his offer?

    I was referring to county GOP leadership. Forsyth, Cagle Country? My boyfriend’s family lives in Cumming and they think Cagle is worthless. I guess three of the Forsyth GOP officers just felt like driving to Warner Robins for the grassroots meeting just because they felt like driving.

    You put far too much faith in local elected officials. You do remember that Lamutt had every elected official in Cobb backing him but lost? He won his home county of Cobb but not by the percentage Price did in Fulton. Price had more money to spend for campagin ads. Lamutt could not keep up.

    And then there is the Isakson-Milner matchup.

    The Reed campaign has not even begun to kick in full gear yet and more money to be raised. Just wait…

    Bus driver, I think you are Ralph Kramden

  16. Jack S says:

    I would take any elected sheriff or county commission chair over a GOP county official anything and that includes the ever so powerful Debbie.

  17. SOUTHERNCOMFORT says:

    I agree Jack 90% of the party does’nt pay atention to what the leadership says because of their history of trying to steer candidates for positions. that’s what makes the republica party the superior party we are… the ability to appraise ones qualifications instead of marching in rank and file order just becuase some bozos are star struck over some candidate..

  18. tobin smith says:

    Good analysis. Bottom line, most primary voters are not following the Abramoff thing and Cagle doesn’t have the money to make it a big issue. The AJC has limited impact on Republican primary voters. Many who at first stepped back are now seeing the attacks on Reed for what they are. I predict this will ultimately backfire on Cagle.

    Cagle’s campaign will implode in the coming weeks as the infighting and hand wringing begins. What to do, what to do?

    They don’t know what’s about to hit them.

    Reed 56%
    Casey Shafer 44%

  19. SOUTHERNCOMFORT says:

    Tobin you must be “tokin”, the heat on Ralphie has’nt even began to what you will see in the coming weeks. These are not attacks they are facts the public needs to know about your boy. The Cagle team will never implode but will go nuclear to protect our state from you guys….CAGLE’06 LEADERSHIP NOT LEGAL FEES

  20. Tobin,

    No infighting from us Cagle supporters!!! We are just riding the wave with others jumping on the band wagon daily. Come on jump on!!! And if you are a staffer or consultant we will help you find a job. (Unless you have a new job in VA.) Join the winning team.

    Team Cagle 06′

  21. SOUTHERNCOMFORT says:

    I agree totally with you independentthinker, in the Cagle team it’s all about love and the conviction to win and we will!!!!

  22. Tater Tate says:

    The only people supporting Cagle in South Georgia are folk who have a problem with conservative Christians and their values and their involvement in the party. Too bad. We’re not going anywhere.

  23. Tater,

    People, including consertative christians in North, South, East and West Georgia support Casey because of his character and values.

    Our base of Conservatives of all faiths support the Casey and he will and has gained the support of that respected demographic.

    Per his web site Casey has pledged to do the following.

    http://www.caseycagle.com/values.cfm

    “Traditional values and respect for every human life are at the core of what has made Georgia the great state that we are today. I will fight to protect those values at every opportunity.

  24. SOUTHERNCOMFORT says:

    TATERTATE,you exemplfy a typical koolaide drinker with that pios attitude that if you don’t support Ralphie boy you are not conservative or a Christian. Here’s some coffee for you, there is an old southern saying that there is a special HELL for those that use the bible to manipulate others and for self promotion. Your boy needs to do some soul searching if he thinks whats he’s done will be taken lightly by the Christian block whether he is indicted or not.

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