THIS JUST IN…

GEORGIA. The latest Rasmussen Reports poll shows Governor Sonny Perdue (R) is rapidly losing his numerical advantage. Last month, Perdue held leads of 20-points over either Secretary of State Cathy Cox (D) or Lieutenant Governor Mark Taylor (D). The new numbers: Perdue-49%, Cox-41% … and Perdue-51%, Taylor-41%. Political pundits are already attributing Perdue’s decline to the steady stream of news articles in recent weeks that closely link GOP Lieutenant Governor candidate and former Christian Coalition executive director Ralph Reed with corrupt DC lobbyist Jack Abramoff. “The Democrats, radical left, and dominant media have made numerous unfair personal attacks against Ralph,” claims Reed’s campaign. Professor Marvin Olasky — the close associate of President Bush who conceived the “compassionate conservative” concept — said Reed “has damaged Christian political work by confirming for some the stereotype that evangelicals are easily manipulated and that evangelical leaders use moral issues to line their own pockets.” Some Republican activists worry Reed’s continued presence on the statewide GOP ticket could potentially doom Perdue to an upset loss. Race rating: GOP Favored (but on the verge of slipping into the “Leans GOP” category).

Source

21 comments

  1. Bill Simon says:

    Gee…umm….yes, it MIGHT be due to Ralphie Poo that Sonny’s previous leads are shrinking.

    OR, it could be due to the fact that a lot of Republicans are just FED-UP with the handling of government by Republicans at both the state and federal levels.

  2. buzzbrockway says:

    Bull,

    The way your wrote this post makes it look like Rasmussen is attributing Perdue’s results to voters connecting Abramoff to Perdue. While Bobby Kahn may dream of this, it’s certainly not what Rasmussen says. In fact Rasmussen says this:

    The rolling average of the past three Rasmussen Reports polls shows Perdue leading Cox 51% to 37%. For this match-up, all three polls this year are within the margin of sampling error from this result. This raises the possibility that there may be little actual movement in the race and that the apparent tightening might be statistical noise.

    However, the three-poll rolling average for the Perdue-Taylor match-up shows Perdue leading 53% to 35%. The most recent poll shows Taylor six points above this average. Additionally, Perdue’s support has declined each month when matched against Taylor (from 55% to 53% to 51%). This suggests that Taylor’s gains are more than just statistical noise.

    Please make it clear what’s your opinion versus what Rasmussen says.

  3. Bull Moose says:

    Buzz, all I did was attach information from another blog… Glad you pointed out the differences…

    Either way, this election is going to be close and we can’t afford a drag like Reed.

  4. Bill Simon says:

    Buzz, thank you for the link.

    Attention STACEY REECE; this statistic is for you from the Rasmussen Poll: Fifty-nine percent (59%) believe most politicians would change their vote for a campaign contribution.

  5. Bull Moose says:

    Also, Buzz, on election day, they don’t do any averages, they take the actual count, so it is relative that as of now, Perdue only leads Cathy Cox by a few points.

    Republicans better get things worked out soon or we’ll be the reason the Democrats come back with a roar…

  6. larry smith says:

    Buzz,

    I know you really like Ralph, but I think you are being too dismissive of these numbers. Did you see the InsiderAdvantage poll showing the Reed cuts Perdue’s margin by a net 8 points?

    Even assuming there’s some softness to those numbers, you’re still talking a 3-4 point net drop in Perdue margin. In a state as closely divided as Georgia, that’s a potential disaster.

    And, if you don’t think LGs can hurt Gs here, just ask Guy Millner what he thinks of Mitch Skandalakis.

  7. Andre the Mark Taylor supporter checking in here.

    Mark Taylor has also closed the gap between himself and Gov. Perdue while Cathy Cox’s numbers have stagnated. She’s peaked while the “Big Guy” is steadily gaining steam.

    To quote the Rasmussen people, “Taylor’s gains are more than just statistical noise.”

  8. emily says:

    Andre–it’s not like his numbers could have gotten any worse. When there’s nowhere to go but up, what do you expect? If there are numbers out there that show him competitive–even if they’re his internal numbers–I’d like to see them. As it stands, Cathy’s always been ahead and nothing’s changed. That’s why he won’t release his internal poll numbers. The truth hurts.

  9. atlantaman says:

    I’d love to see how Taylor and Cox stand in a poll. Asking people how they compare to Perdue and then trying determine who’s going to win the Primary would be a mistake.

    Don’t forget the Democrat Primary is far different then the general election. For every staunch Conservative in the Republican Primary, there is a tree hugging liberal in the Democrat Primary that wants gay marriage, no photo ID’s at the polls, more hate crime legislation, and illegal aliens with GA driver’s licenses.

    It will be interesting to see how Cox and Taylor walk through this mine field. Statements made to appease the Vincent Fort’s and Stephanie Stuckey’s of the State will come back to bite them in the ass in the General Election.

    My only wish is that some of the newspapers in Georgia will have the guts to make them go on record with these issues.

  10. Bill Simon says:

    Atlantaman, what is your hangup with gay marriage? It’s not going to happen in this state…ever. In case you just crossed the Mexican border, there was an amendment on the ballot in 2004 outlawing gay marriage and it passed overwhelmingly.

    Next thing you’ll be claiming is that the Democrats want to burn Bibles.

  11. atlantaman says:

    My personal opinion on gay marriage is irrelevant. I was speaking in general terms concerning the type of issues a Democrat in the State of GA has to deal with. Their statewide politicians have to make sure they don’t alienate an increasingly powerful liberal wing of their party.

    While you obviously don’t have a problem with gay marriage, you have to agree from a pure machiavellian it’s an issue you don’t want to be on the wrong side of statewide.

    For every traditional south GA Democrat that jumps ship and switches parties, the Vincent Forts, Stephanie Stuckeys, and Alisha Thomases become that much more powerful and have more control over the Democrat agenda.

  12. Jack S says:

    Ralph, you’re a fraud. Now your hypocrisy is going to cost all of us the Governor’s election. Get out of the race, please!

  13. GetReal says:

    Has Emily or any of the people out there that are sure Cox will win the Democratic primary thought of the following?

    Every voter that will vote for her simply because she is a female is already voting for her in these polls. She has far higher name recognition than Taylor because she ran $4 million of government-funded TV advertising in late 2004 and hundreds of thousands of government-funded radio ads in 2005. Her name recognition advantage and other benefits of her massive advertising will never be higher relative to Taylor than it is right now. And yet InsiderAdvantage (run by her supporter and donor Matt Towery) did a poll that shows her getting only 43% of the Democratic primary vote.

    If she’s that far from winning with all of her advantages to this point, what happens when the campaign kicks into gear and Taylor starts to become known? He’ll gain votes a lot quicker than she will since he’s relatively unknown at this point, and you have to wonder if she can get over 50% since she’s not close to that now, even though she has so many factors working in her favor.

  14. atlantaman says:

    I’m wondering if Cox’s “woman” advantage is a wash. Perhaps for every suburbanite that votes for her because she is a woman, there is a fella from rural GA that won’t vote for her because she is a woman.

  15. emily says:

    I think GetReal’s facts are off in claiming that Towery is a Cathy supporter. He’s definately not a donor, but maybe he whispered his secret love for Cathy in GR’s ear. The only Insider Advantage partner that is giving any money to a primary candidate is Pierre Howard, and it was to Taylor. So, under GR’s logic, I guess the poll would be leaning MT’s way.

  16. Cynthia says:

    GetReal –

    I think the whole idea that Cathy will win “just” because she is a woman is off-base and condescending. Maybe she might be leading in the polls because she is a flat out better candidate with ideas that people genuinely respond to? God forbid someone besides a white male ever win that would just be a “special interest.” Well, over 50% of georgia voters are women and at this point women can no longer be called a “special interest” but merely the electorate.

    PS – you’d think that Taylor would have higher name id since he and his supporters keep claiming that he was the father of the HOPE scholarship and all…

    Oh. wait. that was Zell Mill who DOES have high name id…

  17. ugadog says:

    Cathy’s “lead” over Taylor would vanish just by the primary if no ads were ever launched. The only reason she ever had a lead in the first place was because of the government paid for ads that featured her name all over the place and the effects of this are wearing off. Taylor will win because of what he’s done for the state. Largest tax cut in the history of Georgia, the HOPE scholarship, PeachCare, HEROS legislation, Pharmacy RX … the list goes on. Cathy took us to electronic voting and moved the offices from ATL to Macon. I’m from Macon and I appreciate that but really Cathy, did u get a good deal from U-Haul on that? Are those the qualifications that you list when you’re running for Governor? Have any Cathy supporters actually thought of what Cathy will do if she becomes Governor?

  18. Emily,

    If you look at the polls over the past 3 months, you can clearly see that Cathy Cox’s numbers have gone as high as they’re going to go, while the proverbial “Force” is with Mark Taylor.

    Let’s take a look at the first Rasmussen Reports poll done in Georgia back in January:

    “Perdue leads Secretary of State Cathy Cox (D) by 14 percentage points, 51% to 37%. He leads Lt. Governor Mark Taylor (D) by an even larger 55% to 32% margin.” (Source Info)

    Now let’s take a look at February:

    “Perdue leads Secretary of State Cathy Cox (D), 54% to 34%. He leads Lt. Governor Mark Taylor (D) 53% to 33% margin.” (Source Info)

    And finally, March:

    “Perdue leads Cox 49% to 41% and leads Taylor 51% to 41%. A month ago, he led both Democrats by 20 points. He also held a double digit lead against both Democrats in January.” (Source Info)

    If you look at these numbers, you can see that Cathy Cox’s performance has been fluctuating. She started at 37%, went down to 34%, and came back up to 41%. Mark Taylor, on the other hand, has either maintained his position or improved upon it. His numbers show him starting at 33%, moving up one percentage point to 34%, and then picking up seven percentage points to move up to 41%.

    In other words, Mark Taylor has a net gain of 8 percentage points in the polls, while Cathy Cox has a net gain of 4 percentage points. Cathy Cox has peaked, and things are only going to get worse for her as soon as Mark Taylor finishes the important job of presiding over that great deliberative body, the Georgia state Senate, and gets back on the campaign trail.

  19. HJ Bailey says:

    Sonny is going to have a very tough race with either Dem candidate. People are upset with the way some republicans, especially the governor, are handling things. It isnt because of just Ralph, it is because of the governor and many republicans.

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