Attention on GA 8th District Race

CQ Politics had a piece yesterday on the Collins vs. Marshall Congressional match-up in the 8th District.  You attorneys out there can fill me in on restrictions about copying limited access articles, but in hopes that I don’t get tracked down and shot by the CQ folks, I won’t include the full article.  Although, here are a few snippets (all sources come from Congressional Quarterly) …

Collins is expected to wage a more competitive campaign against Marshall than 2004 nominee Calder Clay, who lost by 26 percentage points in a rematch of a 2002 campaign that Marshall won by just one percentage point.

GOP strategists are bullish about 2006 because Marshall will be opposed by a more seasoned politician in Collins, who served as a county commissioner and state senator prior to his election to the House in 1992. What’s more, Marshall’s central Georgia district was redrawn by the GOP-controlled state legislature last year to have a stronger Republican lean. 

…Marshall might be more strongly favored this year if he were seeking re-election in his current 3rd, which takes in Macon — where Marshall once was mayor — and substantial rural territory. In the new 8th District, more than 40 percent of the residents are new to Marshall…

…One challenge for Marshall is the 8th’s smaller percentage of racial minorities compared to the current 3rd. Bullock says the new map reduced the percentage of minorities in the district to 30 percent from 40 percent…

…Collins has stayed competitive with Marshall in fundraising. Marshall reported raising $774,000 and had $859,000 cash on hand through the end of December, compared to Collins’ $702,000 in receipts and $542,000 cash on hand.

This is indeed a unique race in that even though Marshall is technically the incumbant, there isn’t near the incumbant factor in his favor as it normally would be if this were his old district.  In some cases, as the article points out, Collins has more history representing some of the people in that district than Marshall does.  This is fairly evenly matched, and I think this could realistically be up for grabs by the GOP. 

4 comments

  1. Erick says:

    I think Marshall still has a large advantage. He has a better fundraising machine and a staff that understand the “local color” better than the NRCC boys in charge of Mac’s campaign.

  2. Plus, a lot of the district that Marshall didn’t represent — like North Macon and parts of Houston are in the Macon media market. They see stories about Marshall all the time and remember him as mayor — and can compare favorably to the current mayor!

    I’m sure Collins has an advantage in Butts and Newton, since that is new area to Marshall, but there aren’t that many voters there. Neither has an advantage in the Colquitt end of the district, although I should point out that even though they aren’t exactly Democratic voters down there anymore, Sanford Bishop did quite well in that region in ’04, which leads me to belive they are comfortable with incumbent Democrats, even on the federal level, as long as they don’t perceive them to be liberals.

    And Marshall will never be confused for a liberal, or even a moderate in many cases!

  3. Brian from Ellijay says:

    Chris, North MAcon is very much Republican as long as Mac doesnt let the NRCC do a repeat of 04 like Calder did. Calder lost in 2004 due to the NRCC and Rufus Montgomery.

    AS long as Mac plays the good ole boy role and talks about his previous Congressional record compared to Marshalls record as opposed to going negative like DC types like to do. He will win. If not he will lose. Simple.

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