For You Conspiracists and Others

Jack Abramoff is going to plead guilty. No doubt in exchange for that he will name names.

This is relevant to Georgia politics only to the extent that some think Abramoff will implicate Ralph Reed in knowingly and willfully committing some wrong doing. If so, Reed is probably toast. If not, Reed will probably be able to get some renewed traction and momentum.

Technorati Tags: Ralph Reed

9 comments

  1. larry smith says:

    1) Reed is not a likely target for an indictment from Public Integrity at main Justice. They are much more likely to target electeds, and that’s who they will be pushing Abramoff to give up. This isn’t to say he might not end up being lumped into something down the road, but he won’t be an early target.

    2) It will be months before we know precisely what — and about whom — Abramoff has dealt. The prosecutors will play their cards close until the grand jury finishes its work.

    3) I disagree that avoiding indictment in the near term does much to give any candidate “momentum.” What’s he supposed to say, “vote for me because I’m probably not going to jail now?” The fundamental situation Reed faces is the same: he can’t win unless he can rebuild some level of trust in the electorate, and that simply isn’t going to happen for a variety of reasons.

  2. Tater Tate says:

    You assume the electorate has lost Trust in RR over this???

    I don’t think anyone beyond the hacks who frequent this and other blogs know enough about this to have a clue what you are talking about.

    I had fun over the holidays at parties and family functions asking people what they thought about this and I did not find one, not one, human being over five or six occasions who knew or cared about this.

    If he is indicted that is one thing, but otherwise this will be a minor blip.

  3. Bull Moose says:

    I think that the plea agreement that Abramoff has initiated indicates pretty clearly that “others” may include Ralph Reed. For some reason, I don’t think Georgia’s Conservative Common Sense voters are inclined to elect someone with so much negative speculation surrounding them.

    Ralph Reed for Lt. Governor ensures that Kathy Cox wins against Perdue. You heard it hear first.

  4. larry smith says:

    Fine, Tater, I’ll bite …

    1) If you’re just going to poll random people on the street, most of them aren’t regular primary voters in the first place. The race at this point is a battle for support from people are paying attention (donors, elected officials, activists, opinion leaders). Among these groups, Cagle is clearly leading.

    2) Every poll of general election voters I have seen shows Ralph upside down, with favs outweighed by unfavs. Any pollster will tell you this is an untenable position from which one cannot recover. The fact is that among the 20-30% of respondents in a random sample who are aware of Ralph, most dislike him. This is a clear indication that a minority — but a significant one — is paying attention and forming opinions accordingly.

    Bottom line, I’m much more interested in rigrous polling data than I am in who you ran into at whatever parties you went to over the last month (as fascinating as I’m sure that is).

  5. Jack S says:

    This is getting silly.

    Ralph Reed is an embarrassment to himself and to our party.

    He’s the poster child for greed and political sleeze. And now that he’s running for office it’s all coming home to roost.

    Every poll that has been released has different numbers but the same clear trend. Cagle is moving up and Ralph is moving down and that General Election voters hate him.

    Ralph may get indicted or he may not. it doesn’t matter.

    Cagle didn’t do this to Ralph, nor did the Democrats. Ralph did this to Ralph. Ralph should withdraw and salvage what he has left of a career.

  6. Bull Moose says:

    I don’t know how Ralph Reed salvages a career. He has lied on so many levels to so many people of all walks of life throughout the state I’m not sure how he has credibility in terms of his story regarding the Indian casinos. And now that Abramoff is cooperating, we are surely going to see the further extent of Ralph’s involvement.

    It really is a shame, but this man is getting what he deserves.

  7. Chris says:

    Tater, you are probably right with the Abramoff thing up till now. But as soon as he starts naming corrupt congress critters and exec branch officials, the media will be all over it. Everyone will know who Abramoff is (or at least as much as people followed the Wilson/Plame/Scooter issue). All an opponent would need to do it link Reed with Abramoff and the damage from guilt by association is done.

    This scandal is about to cross the event horizon, and once that happens Reed will never be able to escape from it, and neither will the GA GOP if we follow him in.

  8. Bull Moose says:

    Reed took Abramoff money in his bid for party chairman, I think to the tune of $10,000.00. Not sure if it was personal money or tribal money. Also, not sure if Republicans want ethics to be the number one issue considering that Sonny is the first Governor ever to be fined and reprimanded.

  9. kspencer says:

    Bull, depends on who you’re listening to. The various emails released at the federal level say there were several, with (for example) $10,000 coming from the Choctaw. Reed’s team says they only received $5,500, and as far as they knew it came directly from Abramoff.

    If Reed’s indicted, I agree he’s toast. However, I don’t agree he’s home free if not indicted. His name’s come up frequently enough in the national stuff that he’ll still get tarred, coming into the focus as a material witness for multiple other indictments. It doesn’t mean he can’t get elected, it just means it’s harder – a LOT harder.

    Kirk

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