Predictions Open Thread

With the first of the year upon us, we at Peach Pundit decided we’d put this back to the top, now that commenting has been fixed. If you haven’t, or even if you have, chime in with your predictions for 2006.

It’s that time of year boys and girls. Fill up the comments with your predictions for next year. Who will win, who will lose, what will be the biggest surprise of the year? It’s all fair game (minus profanity).

I’ll lay it all on the table with my predictions::

Shirley Franklin will endorse Mark Taylor. Taylor will go on to beat Cathy Cox.

Voters will have a hard time deciding between two overweigh guys from South Georgia and will stay with the governor they know.

The 2006 election will get ugly and many voters will stay home.

The GOP will hold the House and Senate, with a slight decline in the House.

Glenn Richardson and Eric Johnson will be the driving forces for the 2006 agenda, sidelining the governor’s staffers.

Richardson will begin laying aggressive groundwork for a 2010 gubernatorial bid and will set himself up as the driver of the conservative agenda.

Community Development Districts will be the hot topic of the year, but will wind up being pitted against eminent domain opponents by those who who don’t really want CDDs for selfish reasons.

Atlanta’s new song will not have any impact on attracting tourists or others into the metro-area. GAWire will continue to mock it.

Add your own in the comments.

45 comments

  1. Tommy_a2b says:

    I so hope Eric is right on this one. “Glenn Richardson and Eric Johnson will be the driving forces for the 2006 agenda, sidelining the governor’s staffers.”

  2. Bull Moose says:

    Casey Cagle will defeat Ralph Reed by 3 points

    Karen Handel will defeat Bill Stephens by less than 1 point

    Brian Kemp will defeat Gary Black by 10 points

    I predict Shirley Franklin endorses Kathy Cox and helps her win in return, Kathy Cox agrees to help Shirley Franklin in 2008 against Saxby Chambliss.

  3. stephaniemills21 says:

    Kasey Cagel will beat Ralph Reid by 2 pt. Stevens will ‘handle’ Handel by 3 pt. and Peach Pundit will include a “political spellchecker” for all of you geeks who know so much about Ga. politics.

  4. Romegaguy says:

    Dems will have a Big Guy/Little Guy ticket. The Big Guy comes from behind in the polls to win after the economy tanks. The Little Guy loses to Casey Cagle. Reed opens up an ocean casino that docks in Savannah. Jimmy Swaggart will perform on the Lido deck nightly.

    Black beats the Horse fancier and then the senile, old man.

    Stephens beats Handel and then beats whomever is the Dem nominee (if they have one).

    Mayor Franklin refuses to publically endorse Cathy or Mark before the primary but will quietly show up at both of their events to show her support.

    House and Senate remain GOP.

    I agree Johnson and Richardson will have more say over the 06 agenda than the kids in the Gov’s office. Problems will arise when they try to help out some vulnerable legislators through redistricting when some greedy folks want to go from 60% safe district to a 70 % safe district. Immigration legislation wont pass. Session will be short and sweet.

    Bobby Kahn moves to another state after removed as head of Dem Party.

  5. buzzbrockway says:

    1) Dow 13,000

    2) Sandy Springs becomes a city. Opps, that was a prediction for 2005.

    3) The Hawks win more games that the Falcons.

    4) Bobby Kahn becomes Chairman of the Georgia Green Party.

    5) Arthur Blank purchases the Braves.

    6) GOP increases members in both House and Senate.

    7) GOP picks up one Congressional seat.

    8) AJC circulation continues to decline.

    9) “Peach Pundit The Movie” breaks box office records.

    10) Erick wins the lottery and buys Terrell Owens’ mansion in Lithonia. He throws a big party where Silence Dogwood, GA Wire Bull Moose and DecaturGuy are arrested but refuse to give their names to the police. Bob Barr represents the “Secret 4” and wins a landmark decision before the Georgia Supreme Court regarding the use of pseudonyms.

  6. Paul Bennecke says:

    USC beats Texas 35-24
    Penn State beats FSU 28-17
    Georgia beats West VA 24-6
    Ohio St. beats Notre Dame 18-16
    Auburn beats Wisconsin 35-14
    Republicans beat Democrats in Georgia for a 3-peat.

  7. Bill I think Stephanie did that on porpoise. My prediction is that the average Georgian will save $7 in taxes on a natural gas bill that is 100% higher than the previous winter.

    Also, between 45%-48% of Democratic primary voters will be shocked when their chosen candidate is not the nominee.

  8. UGA Wins 2005 says:

    Sonny beats either Democrat by 5%

    Ralph Reed prays that Jack Abramhoff doenst spill his guts in DC…and when he does, Reed is toast. LT Gov Cagle.

    The House and Senate remain GOP with the current divide in the Senate remaining the same, the GOP gets plus or minus 2 seats in the House.

    Bill Stephens wins the primary and waltzes into office in November

    Thurmond and Baker win again.

    AG Commissioner is the great toss up. Too close to call in the GOP primary, then a mountain to climb in the fall.

    Here’s one not mentioned: Collins beats Marshall.

    Cynthia McKinney endures a tough primary and loses with the Rockdale vote now included.

  9. Bill Simon says:

    If Bill Stephens wins the primary, the only thing “waltzing” in the SOS office if he wins the General will be all of the record-keeping that works just fine now that will go to CRAP when that moron takes over.

  10. Jack S says:

    Reed withdraws and Cagle wins easily.
    Toss up in SOS – I’ll hedge my bet and wait to see disclosures.
    Irvin doesn’t qualify, Kemp wins without a runoff and wins general easily. Gary Black and Alec Poitevint go throw themselves into some cotton gins.
    Farmers and voters with kids rally against Kathy Cox, R. She gets humiliated by an unknown Democrat.
    Perry McGuire does great and wins by 100 votes setting off a huge legal battle.
    Republicans move to make Labor Commissioner appointed after not having a candidate run.

    Collins loses becuase he can’t run a decent campaign. Burns wins becuase he can. GOP holds House and Senate.

    Bobby Kahn is attacked and hung by a host of liberal groups.

    Alito is confirmed.

    And Jimmy Franklin announces against Harold Melton and wins in a landslide in 08.

  11. GAWire says:

    Prediction: Cagle wins in July and I lead a dance-off contest to the ATL theme song! I, then, plea no contest at Erick’s PP party, and retain Bill Simon to represent me along with Barr.

  12. stephaniemills21 says:

    Come on bill. Did you really think that was an accident. Did you not notice everyone’s name was spelled wrong.

  13. [i]Governor[/i]
    [b]D-Cathy[/b]
    R-Sonny

    State Senator who announces after the session could beat Cathy. If Mark wins, Sonny wins. But he must first beat the primary opponent.

    [i]LT.Governor[/i]
    D-Hect
    [b]R-Cagle[/b]

    [i]AG[/i]
    D-Tommy
    [b]R-To close to call at this point[/b]

    [i]SOS[/i]
    D-Syreem Reidy
    [b]R-Karen[/b]

    [i]Attorney General[/i]
    D-Baker
    [b]R-Perry[/b]

    [i]Congress[/i]
    [b]Collins[/b]
    Marshall

    [b]Burns[/b]
    D-Primary opponent beats the gay guy.

  14. Maurice Atkinson says:

    Governor- Sonny, contrary to the dismay that is reflected on this site, most people I talk with are not disgusted with him. The next legislative session will set the tone for the election.

    Lt. Gov.- Casey Cagle If the momentum continues it will be a fairly close race, but Casey will win by a good margin. Nothing seems to be coming out that legitimizes Reeds work.

    AG- Toss up. The power of incumbency is strong and the dems will rally around their man, they won’t win much else. Perry has to network like he’s never done before. He’s a good man and would be an awesome AG. My hope is that the LG race does not splinter the Party to the point they don’t show up at the polls.

    Gary Black will win the Agriculture Commissioner race but will have a difficult time with Irvin. This is not an endorsement, but just from looking from a lazy perspective Black looks like he relates with the agricultural community more than Kemp.

    SoS, Stephens has been working the state. He’s been north and south. Given his senate seat my guess is he will win. Handel needs to work the state to be taken seriously. From what I hear most statewide candidates feel they can win the election by simply working the metro area. This is a huge mistake.

  15. Ya’ll have to be smoking some Christmas crack if you think Max Burns or Mac Collins will win. Need I remind everyone that Collins came in third in a GOP primary to a black candidate? Some powerhouse. He should stick to playing with his trucks.

  16. Maurice Atkinson says:

    chrisishardcore, race had little bearing on the 2004 Senate race. The fact was that Herman simply outworked all three candidates. He went came from absolutely nowhere and came within points of forcing a runoff, which is what we were wanting.

    Collins, in my belief, underestimated the labor of a statewide race. However, in this case, he has a good shot at it. He is working the district effectively, and has a strong reputation. Houston County will be key. There isn’t the disgust factor, so we’ll see.

    But I wouldn’t base my assumption on the 04 senate race.

  17. Mac can probably get 60% of the vote in Houston county and still not win in the general election. However, I predict Houston county’s vote in this race will be very close to 50/50 and hence not nearly enough to put Mac over the top.

    I suppose we’ll see how fundraising is coming come January 1st, but if Republican money is coming to Georgia challengers (and I think that’s a big if) it will go to Burns and not Collins. Being a member of Congress is one thing, being a former member is quite another which I assume Collins and even Burns are rudely awaking to.

  18. Predictions from the Democratic side of the aisle:

    Bobby Kahn doesn’t run for re-election as Chairman of the DPG.

    Someone in the “House of Labor” replaces him as Chairman creating more synergy between the Democratic Party and the Labor Unions.

    Mark Taylor wins the primary after a run-off.

    Mark Taylor vs. Sonny Perdue is a toss-up.

    Jim Marshall wins unless Sarah E. Todd makes good on her promise to work for his defeat in 2006.

    Republicans maintain their majority in the Georgia General Assembly.

    The current House & Senate Democratic leadership gets replaced.

    Democrats maintain hold of the Sec. of State office, Attorney General office, Labor Commissioner office, but lose Commissioner of Agriculture & State School Superintendent (Have you even seen Carlotta Harrell’s website? WTF?)

    And I keep blogging away making both Democrats & Republicans cringe.

  19. Briardawg says:

    Cox wins a tough primary against the Big Guy, the she loses to Perdue by 7%.

    Cagle surprises Reid in the primary, and beats Jim Martin (assuming no other Dems run) to win LtGov.

    Stephens edges out Handle, and wins SOS.

    Irvin sleeps through election. And wins.

    Dawgs win the Sugar Bowl.

    GOP loses a Senate seat, but picks up a seat and two more party switchers in the State House.

  20. Bull Moose says:

    Total one party control of state government is not healthy and I think most people are becoming aware of that. With that said, due to the incumbent friendly districts, the GOP maintains control of the House and Senate in Georgia despite the fact that the statewide races are all within 2 points.

    1. Governor – It all depends on who the Democratic nominee is and how bruised they are from the primary. If the nominee is Kathy — all bets are off… I think she beats Sonny by less than 1 percent. If it’s Mark Taylor, Sonny beats him by 3-5 percent.

    2. Lt. Governor – If Ralph Reed survives the onslaught of the Abramoff/Indian tribe/casino scandals it will be a miracle. Jack Abramoff is about to sell everyone out and cop a plea. Ralph Reed has told so many stories about his involvement, he probably doesn’t know the truth anymore. I think the feds charged Martha Stewart with a crime because she talked up her stock to share holders by defending herself. She went to jail for her offense. What’s Ralph doing? ANYWAY… Casey will beat Ralph (if he can qualify) anywhere from 1 to 10 points. My guess is the win will be pretty significant. Casey will have a close race with whomever the Dems put up but will win by at least 2 points.

    3. Secretary of State – If Dems put up the current Deputy Secretary as a nominee then its a race, otherwise the winner of the Republican primary takes the seat. Bill Stephens has some negatives and since this is a very administrative job, I feel that Handle wins by less than a point. She should be able to win the general unless of course outside factors dominate, say for example, Ralph Reed is on the general election ballot — then it’s a clean sweep for the Dems.

    4. Ag Commissioner – This is going to be a neck and neck race but Brian Kemp pulls it out in the end by about 5 points. Smacking from there loss, the Black/Poitevint crowd refuses to help in the general. However, Kemp still goes on to beat the unseen Tommy Irvin. He outworks him, it’s that simple.

    So, if for some reason the Governor is defeated, State Party Chairman gets elected and the now in power Cagle/Kemp faction drives the agenda and helps elect the next Chairman. True party workers and leaders will be recognized and given a long overdue seat at the table. If Sonny wins, it may be status quo for a couple more years, but the battle for 2010 starts immediately.

  21. Rusty says:

    Congressman John Lewis sent to reeducation camp for calling for Bush’s impeachment, comes out six months later and votes for the Patriot Act.

    Bush eats a Jewish baby on national television (see: David Cross) and claims it’s in the Constitution that he can eat Jewish babies, executes Washington Post Reporter for treason and terrorism on Fox & Friends for reporting downturn in the economy.

    Taylor and Perdue kiss and make up, Taylor switches parties, they run together for Lt. Gov. and Gov. on the Teletubbies Ticket.

  22. macongop says:

    C. Jack Ellis will come clean on all of the mispent money in Macon and kiss and make up with City Council.

  23. SouthernGOP says:

    Alright, first Mark Taylor defeats Cathy and Sonny just wins by one or two percentage points.

    LG race- Cagle defeats Reed in primary. Cagle really seems to have things going his way going into the new year and quite frankly Reed is just a crook. Cagle goes on to defeat the Dem.

    AG race- I really like Perry McGuire and I think he will wage a good campaign, but looses in a close race.

    Agriculture Comm.- Three months ago I would have said that Black had this one, but Kemp has really shown that he is a viable candidate. Not to mention I am hearing his name out there more and more everyday. Even though Black has several Congressional endorsements this does not impress me. Heck most people do not even know who their congressman is. Kemp wins primary and goes on to win a very close general election.

    SOS- Not sure about this one. Do not care for either GOP candidate.

    GOP keeps the House and Senate.

    Max Burns pulls out close race and so does Mac Collins. Both are great men and are great campaigners.

    And yes since the Governor wins (which is good) we have to suffer a few more years of Poitevint and all of his flunkies in the state party.

    Finally the Dawgs go on to win the Sugar Bowl 24-14

    Merry Christmas!!

  24. red clay says:

    this is a predictions thread – not a wishful thinking thread 🙂

    for 2006 i see:

    Cathy Cox beating Mark Taylor in a hard fought primary (as all the polls show) and then going on to beat perdue by less than 1%

    Ralph Reed will go down in flames after Abramoff tells all. Casey Cagle wins but his campaign is so bad his majority is not commanding.

    Republicans maintain control of the legislature.

    Marshall wins but only after waging the most expensive congressional campaign in GA history. The Macon media market never knew what hit it.

  25. HeartofGa says:

    (1) Cox will defeat Taylor in the Democratic Primary, but will not emerge unscathed. She will win in November only if the Democratic Party manages to wage a campaign to fill the airways during the summer, preventing Perdue from getting post-session traction.

    (2) Thurmond will soon announce his intention to run for Lt. Gov.

    (3) A very strong, but yet unknown, Democrat will file for State School Sup. This candidate will help insure that the education issue is top bill and will be able to articulate why Sonny has done teachers no favors- not to mention students.

    (4) Dems will have at least six candidates in the SOS primary. None will go on to win.

    (5) Dems will make gains in the House, but will not re-gain control.

    (6) Tommy Irwin will be re-elected.

    (7) Marshall wins easily, carrying more than 60% of the vote. But if he does not start acting a little more like a Democrat, he will have primary opposition next go round.

    (8) Oh, and David Graves will run, and he will win the Republican primary- and the general election since dems are unlikely to field a candidate in that race. His campiagn theme will be, “I have made my mistakes, paid for them and learned from them. The other may still have theirs to make. And , oh, by the way, do you really want to give up my seniority?”

  26. Bull Moose says:

    Jack Abramoff will cooperate with prosecutors and it will have severe repurcussions throughout the country as House Members and Senators of both parties are indicted on federal corruption charges.

    If I were the three members of the Georgia delegation that accepted campaign funds from Jack or Pam Abramoff I’d be giving that money to charity ASAP.

  27. TheSage says:

    Shunned by the Republican establishment in his attempted comeback for his old State Senate seat, Mike Crotts angrily opposes Sonny Perdue in the Republican primary. He loses but with a stunning 46% of the vote. Cathy Cox will defeat Mark Taylor 68% to 32%. Perdue’s young team panics as Cox surges ahead in the polls, but the race tightens as election day nears. Cox defeats Perdue 53% to 47%.

    Gubernatorial wannabe Glenn Richardson worries that Casey Cagle will be unable to wrest the nomination from even a ounded Ralph Reed. Richardson quietly orchestrates an anti-Reed movement within the House Republican Caucus with the intent of drafting Jerry Keen as the third candidate. Reed retaliates by encouraging opposition to Richardson within his own district. When Keen hesitates, John Oxendine makes a move to reenter the Lieutenant Governor’s race. Worried about Oxendine, Richardson, Keen and 90% of the House Republican Caucus then endorse Cagle, who defeats Reed 53% to 47% in the Republican primary. Cagle defeats Jim Martin 53% to 47% in the general election.

    Karen Handel leads the balloting for Secretary of State with 47% of the vote. Bill Stephens places second with 35% of the vote and Charlie Bailey takes last with 18%. Panicked by a surging Cathy Cox, Perdue endorses Handel in the runoff. Stephens goes negative and defeats her 51% to 49%. Hadel refuses to endorse Stephens in the general election, and Stephens refuses to campaign with Perdue. Stephens defeats Gary Horlacher 53% to 47% in the general election.

    Carry metro Atlanta, Brian Kemp defeats Gary Black 53% to 47% in the Republican primary but loses to Tommy Irvin in the general election 54% to 46%. Democrats pick up Kemp’s State Senate seat.

    Richardson, Cagle, Stephens and Oxendine jockey to run against Cox in 2010. In the end, Stephens and Oxendine run. Stay tuned.

  28. That was quite animated. LOL. good show ole man. Have to disagree with you on one race, I think Mark shocks all and beats Cathy. The reason? Simple demographics, Mark has the African-American vote locked up. He has the Atlanta machine and the Cynthia Machine has his beckon call. Who remembers when he was running against Mary Oliver. She was the front runner. Same story was said then that being said now.

    Taylor wins the Primary.

  29. Bull Moose says:

    TheSage — props on a very animated post…

    I think that IF Perdue loses in 2006, the incumbent Republican Lt. Governor Casey Cagle becomes the frontrunner in 2010.

    I think that Lynn Westmoreland and Jack Kingston have shot themselves in their foot over there support of Tom DeLay and the establishment Washington, DC society.

    Johnny Isakson will not give up his Senate seat to run for Governor.

    Jerry Keen and Glenn Richardson are no allies of anyone who has ever heard the words CANCER and thus don’t deserve to be trusted within a mile of the Governor’s office.

    Whomever wins the Ag Commissioner race (Brian Kemp) or the Secretary of State race (Karen Handle) as those that are able to vie with Cagle for the Republican nomination in 2010.

    If they are smart, they will all sit it out and wait till 2014.

    Oh and Ralph Reed will still be fighting to clean his name regarding Indian casinos/corrupting Members of Congress after his disastrous defeat and conviction following Jack Abramoff’s testimony…

  30. Decaturguy says:

    “Simple demographics, Mark has the African-American vote locked up. ”

    That is not what any of the polls show. In fact, in the last major poll, Cox, if anyone, had the black vote “locked up.” Why? Simple demographics. Most black voters are women, women tend to vote for other women, particularly when the man is some big, fat, southern white guy!

    I think Erick, and some of the others, prediction that Taylor wins is wishful thinking.

    That being said, I would agree with the statement that, whomever the Democratic candidate is, has a lot of work ahead of them. At this very moment, I don’t sense that there is a strong kick out the incumbent Governor movement, and I think that is what it would take. Obviously, there is a long way to go, and may be by November.

  31. HeartofGa says:

    African American vote locked up? I don’t think so. For a recent Cox fundraiser in Macon, every elected African American women, except for one, was either (a) listed on the host committee or (b) in attendance at the event. I’ve seen similar trends in metro, though not quite as stark. Cox will beat Taylor, but it will be a bloody battle. Robert Brown, who is supporting Taylor, of course, will be a huge factor in the midstate. The Cox team can loose this election on the ground, but if they have a decent field plan and are willing to invest in GOTV in metro, particularly, Cox will be Sonny’s opposition. And Mark’s tactics will make whatever Sonny throws at her look like child’s play.

  32. Tater Tate says:

    Taylor over Cox, but close
    Perdue over Taylor, but not close
    Reed over Cagle, but not close, or if he is indicted, a new candidate over Cagle
    Black over Kemp
    Tommy over Kemp, not close
    Stephens over Handel
    Stephens over whoever
    Republican House and Senate, but with slightly reduced margins
    Marshall over Collins, unfortunately
    Bull Moose becomes a Democrat

  33. Jay Dawg says:

    Since we’re speculating, how about some wagers on money!

    Predictions for Disclosures:

    Sonny $15 million, becuase even his awful staff can’t screw up raising money when you’re the Governor of Georgia.

    Cox $3 million with some surprising GOP names on there.

    Taylor: $4 million but who cares cause he has daddy’s money.

    Reed: Ralph probably just gave up on GA money and went for national money. He should easily surpass his last disclosure with all this extra time to raise money and since the scandal means nothing (disagree Erick, sorry), Ralph should easily be at $2.8 million. I bet he comes in over $3million and it will be mostly out of state big dollar donors.

    Cagle: Supposedly Casey said he had crossed $1 million at the Atlanta Station fundraiser. Haven’t heard much since then. Probably $1.1 million. I doubt he could do much more.

    Hecht: Haven’t heard much from Hecht but he’s a hard worker. $750,000. We’ll see if those internet ads worked.

    Martin: With all his trial lawyer support, $1 million.

    Stephens: Hard to tell, haven’t heard much. His first disclsoure was pretty weak. This is an important one to show he can actually raise money. I’ll say $500,000. At least it better be $500,000.

    Handel: Again, hard to tell, haven’t heard much from either of them. I bet she’s around $250,000. She got a late start.

    Kemp: Kemp will struggle in fundraising since Black and Irvin have so many farmers behind them. I’d be shocked if he was over $250,000. That’s the most he raised in his senate races, i bet that’s all he can do here.

    Black: Well, Chase, his manager, told me over the summer they’d be at $1 million by Dec 31. I bet it is more like $500,000.

    Irvin: At least $1 million. Should be around $1.5 million. He’s been in for 30-something years. If he can’t raise a million he is weaker than I thought.

    McGuire: 500K, reasonable number with the support he has lined up.

  34. Bull Moose says:

    In regards to this much talked about Glenn Richardson, I hope that his legislative priorities in 2006 don’t include going after those who have been dealt a cancer diagnosis.

    He and his cohort Keen tried to eliminate life saving cancer screening test from insurance in 2005.

    This disqualifies them from higher office in my book.

    I want someone who is firmly on the side of helping ease the pain from suffering from cancer, not someone like Glenn Richardson who just seems to want people to die.

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