Truth Sucks Sometimes

Now, I already realize that after I post this, everyone on here’s going to go apes**t, but you know what, who gives a rat’s hat? After all, it’s just one big giant chess game, isn’t it? To the winner belong the spoils, may the best man win, and all that rot. Hence my post on the following: why Ralph Reed is going to win the Republican primary for Lt. Governor. I am not saying I endorse Ralph, nor am I even claiming to vote for him. In fact, should I have to put up with anymore pie- in-the-sky talk about Cagle or have to wait any more on Ralph to come up with a cognitive response, maybe I’ll just vote democratic, and be like all of Casey’s supporters (If Ralph’s the nominee I’ll vote for the Dem) (at this point tongue firmly implanted in cheek). To be honest, I hate both of them at this point. However, my passionate disdain for this whole entire race doesn’t change one thing: reality. There is one reality about this race, and the simple fact is that the Cagle machine doesn’t have what it takes to win. I’m going to take the liberty of copying something off of the website of a prominent Georgia consulting group, and use those very factors to show you why Casey will lose. Unfortunate thing for a good legislator, but that’s just the way the cookie crumbles.

Message. The message element of this campaign, as I see it, is pretty evenly matched. Each campaign has a fairly decent proposal, so far, from a policy perspective. However, I would say that the biggest factor in this aspect of the campaign is being overshadowed by the simple fact is that all Cagle’s supporters, and now even Cagle’s press releases, can focus on, is taking a swing at Ralph. But, then again, since we all know Casey and God stand for all the same things, it should be nice and cozy, shouldn’t it?

Money. This is where Cagle’s going to take the hardest hit. Right now, he’s trailing Reed fundraising by right around 750,000. It’s a widely held opinion that this next report will show Reed right at 1.9 million, and Casey has already been proudly boasting that he’s got 1 million in the bank. Also key to this equation is the rate at which money is being spent. Cagle is paying 5 full time staffers (http://caseycagle.com/contact.cfm), at least one consultant (www.southllc.com), a media group (www.stoneridgegroup.com). Ralph, on the other hand, only employs three full time staffers (one of whom is deferring payment, currently), one consultant, and a sole proprietor web designer. On the last expenditure, Reed reported spending approximately 101,000, while Cagle reported spending only 91,000. A 10k difference in expenditures, with a 650k difference in money raised? Ralph’s website cost him about 6k less than Cagle’s. There is a significantly different amount of overhead and day to day cost in the two campaigns. Not to mention the fact that Cagle seems to have made a large number of 1000.00 donations to certain state legislative political campaigns. I’ll forego mentioning the names as they’ve already been listed on the site previously today. Oh my GAWD, I just remembered: once January 9 hits, Casey CAN’T RAISE NO MORE MONEY FOR THREE MONTHS. Is he going to lay off his staff, and cease day to day operations for those three months? I highly doubt it. He’ll continue to spend money at an alarming rate, without raising, while Ralph continues to raise money and spend little. Not to mention the fact that the vast reserves he has in Washington (as his opponents claim) haven’t been touched.

Media. Three words: money buys media. When a campaign spends all it’s money on staff, collaterals, other campaign committees, and media group retainers, there’s not a lot of money left over. A media buy on Fox news in Atlanta, last time I checked, was around 35k. How many of those could Casey afford right now? Apparently, he’s been spending a pretty decent amount of money lately, and has it stopped Ralph from raising money? Nope. Has it stopped him from:

Organization? Nope. Went to a grassroots meeting last week at one of his rural locations. Big stuff. Nuff said. Plus the fact that one of the Senate leaders ( DID say, as Tater suggested earlier, that Ralph would clearly win this race. It stands to reason that once that fact is clearly established, that the Senate leadership will go where they logically should. I’m not advocating that they will, just saying it would make sense if they did. RR06 has been hosting grassroots trainings and event all around the state, albeit stealthily, and is forming an organization that will closely mirror the organization he led at the State Party during the Republican turnover in 2002.

I’m going to add in one more element, perhaps the most volatile and important, and perhaps where the most momentum is swinging in Reed’s favor: Strategy. Had Ralph continued to be baited by the John McCain/Casey Cagle/David Shafer/Atlanta Journal Constitution/New York Times conspiracy, he would have simply continued to fan that flames that did, and still do, have the potency to kill him. However, he did not, in what I believe is one of the most brilliant campaign moves I’ve ever seen. He let it die. 6 out of 10 people do not know who is running in this race, and of those 4 left over, 1 actually cares about those little details, and 0 changed their minds as a result. So what does the race logically come down to? Whoever leaves the best, most powerful, convincing message in the minds of the voters. As it stands, Cagle is building the foundation to sully his image as a mudslinger without vision, regardless of the pretty pictures and catchy, sugar coated rhetoric on his website. Ralph Reed and Tim Phillips seem to be biding their time, and I believe that will be their salvation.

32 comments

  1. Bill Simon says:

    Heyyy, Silence! Good to see you back on the Front Page!

    By the way, Doggie, two words for you: Perdue 2002

    Explanation: Roy Barnes raised $20+ million to Sonny’s $3.something million. Roy went down because of all the NEGATIVES against him.

    The same thing is set to happen against Ralph. The boy can spend all the money in the world he wants. And, admittedly, he MIGHT win the Primary. But, that’s as far as he gets…he will be able to relive the Skandalakis Campaign all over again come 2006 Election Night.

  2. Jack S says:

    Silence, I now honestly believe you are addicted to some illegal substance. Your post here is just silly.

    Get some help.

  3. Bull Moose says:

    Silence: You lost credibility, at least with me, with that post.

    It is so baseless in accuracy.

    Georgia Republicans are better off not turning to someone associated with the inside the beltway Jack Abramoff casino money issue. Do we really want to highlight ethical lapses as a major campaign issue? There are MANY ongoing state and federal investigations and we’re only at the beginning of this mess… A note of caution, you can only get so close to fire before you get burnt and if we’re not careful, we’re going to bring the Abramoff scandal home pretty darn careful if we stay on the Reed wagon…

    For some, a Reed victory is a matter of self preservation and nothing more. It has nothing to do with values, morals, or ability.

    This is not to say anything negative about Ralph as an individual, but rather he has made some mistakes in who he has done business with, his level of honesty in discussing it, and he doesn’t have any experience.

    Now as for Casey, every Lt. Governor that I can think of has at least served either as a member of the Senate or at least held some previous elected office. As Chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, Casey Cagle is poised to start with a tremendous advantage in the Lt. Governor’s position.

    It makes sense for Georgia and after all, isn’t this about Georgia and not our own personal political egos?

  4. GAWire says:

    Here is why your post is meaningless:

    1. You think politics is a chess game. You either 1) have never played a real game of chess; or, 2) have never done anything in campaign politics (or very possibly and likely both)

    2. You don’t understand how media buys work, by your comment: “A media buy on Fox news in Atlanta, last time I checked, was around 35k”

    3. You are trying to argue that all of the significant endorsements, i.e. Senate Members, that endorsed Cagle will eventually “come to their senses” and endorse Ralph

    4. You think that fundraising will automatically stop for Cagle in January. You might have read the campaign filing disclosure info, but know nothing about the way money is used in campaigns

    and the most convincing point as to why you don’t have a clue as to what is happening here …

    5. You think that Ralph’s strategy has diverted damage that can come from the scandals to which he is VERY MUCH ASSOCIATED! The scandalous situations and behavior that Ralph Reed has been apart of in the past has only begun to come out. I said this before, but Ralph’s support peaked at his announcment … in every way – fundraising, grassroots support, coalitions, etc.

    Here is Campaign 101 from GA Wire: if you want to learn about campaigns, and how to analyze the political landscape, be able to look at trends, and that doesn’t just mean published poll numbers. The trends in this race couldn’t be more obvious: Ralph Reed came out strong, but his support, popularity and fundraising have declined since then, which corresponds with more news of his scandalous behavior coming out. On the other hand, Cagle came out strong but conservatively. You say he spends money on organization – I say he developed infrastructure that can sustain in the long-term, competitive political environment that this race will require. As a result, Cagle has had a developed staff to back him up, which has allowed his fundraising capabilties to grow, his grassroots machine to deploy, and his name ID to shoot thru the roof in GA. You obviously can’t see this, Silence; therefore, it is clear you don’t understand what is happening in this Lt. Gov race. THAT is why your post (I would call it analysis, but can’t bring myself to refer to it that way) is meaningless.

  5. Silence says:

    (Hic), Jack S, I was hanging out with David Graves and Ralph David Abernathy. Sorry about that. Bull Schmoose and Wire: I reckon it’s a matter of opinion at this point, and I don’t suppose I’m going to be able to lift the scales from your eyes, so I won’t waste my energy and your obviously valuable time.

  6. Maurice Atkinson says:

    “””””Had Ralph continued to be baited by the John McCain/Casey Cagle/David Shafer/Atlanta Journal Constitution/New York Times conspiracy,”””””

    Ridiculous.

  7. Silence says:

    Thanks Bill. In response to your argument on Skandalakis, I’m really not qualified to speak on it, so I’m not going to comment. I’m gonna try again, this time with maybe a little more bite than bark:

    Jack S — Apparently you can find nothing substantive to offer in response to my arguments, so all you can do is, yet again, resort to personal attacks. Professional and impressive. You sure you’re not related to ConservativeFire/Corlensky?

    Ga Wire — More sugar coated rhetoric. You make statements, but with nothing to back them up. Ralph came out strong, but has slowly been dying? Apparently it hasn’t affected his fundraising. Apparently, it hasn’t affected folks opinion of him. Maybe in the media? So you prefer the media over public opinion polls? I was referring to Senate Leadership, folks like the President Pro-Tem, Majority Leader, Caucus Chairman, Majority Whip, folks like that. And since I’m so ignorant about media buys and such, maybe you can take a little bit of your supreme knowledge and eddykate me.

    Maurice — Ridiculous? Why?

    I’m going to repeat the same challenge I hand out to Cagle supporters every time I discuss this: tell me why Casey’s going to win, not why Ralph’s going to lose. Tell me what Casey stands for, not what Ralph stands “against.” Bull Schmoose made an excellent attempt earlier with that long winded post about Cagle endorsements, but I question whether those are really worth more than a press release, 200 votes, and maybe a couple thousand bucks, in the grand scheme of things. Those guys won’t knock on doors, most likely, cause they’ll be busy with their own respective campaigns. Most of them won’t write checks, on the contrary, Cagle 06 has been writing checks to them.

  8. landman says:

    Silence-your analysis is a joke,and your constant babble about not being a RR supporter is so lame.It cracks me up to hear you and Erick try to sound nuetral in this race,grow some ba*** and state who you support and let the chips fall where they may!!!!!

    The bottom line is the Georgia Republican voter will be smart enough to see who is qualified for this position.RR is in a box and he will not be able to get out.The heat hasnt even begun to be turned up yet but it will and RR WILL NEED ALL THE MONEY HE HAS TO PUSH DOWN THE NEGATIVES THAT HE DRAWS.

    Grassroots you say?Not that im convinced all of the Christian Coalition stays with RR,ill take the state and county Leaders,Bankers,Builders,and Realtors anyday over a few morally and ethically blind Koolaide drinkers in places like Blackshear.

    RR hurts the Republican ticket and the reality of what it could mean in the big picture is becoming obvious to logical thinking people.

  9. Maurice Atkinson says:

    Conspiracy???? To term the many people from various perspectives questioning the money laundering and manipulation of the political system to protect the market share of a tribe a conspiracy is ridiculous. Not to mention the indictments already levied against his cohorts. The millions of dollars spent and funneled through various “entities” demands answers and it is apparent only through the legal process are the answers forthcoming.

    Conspiracy would require some sort of collusion. Common sense says where there is smoke there usually is fire. In this case, if you read the documents and the testomony of the principles involved, there is definitely fire.

    In my mind, it is irresponsible to not demand answers and accountability. For years we criticized the Democrats for unethical practices. The Democrat Party has paid the price for those since 1994. If we continue to compromise our ethics, then we will earn the same fate as the other side.

  10. Maurice Atkinson says:

    “””””, 200 votes, and maybe a couple thousand bucks, in the grand scheme of things. Those guys won’t knock on doors, most likely, cause they’ll be busy with their own respective campaigns””””

    Maybe not, but I’m certain those guys do know people who will knock on doors. It’s an interesting list, they come from various parts of the state.

  11. Tater Tate says:

    Maurice,

    You guys need to get off complaining about how Ralph’s company made money. In your naive world, very few politicians or businessmen would make your list of the holy qualified to hold office.

    Reed was hired to do the jobs he did because he knows how to get things done.

    That’s why the people of Georgia will hire him as their LG.

    To suggest that RR will harm the Republican party of GA is crazy. The party is where it is largely because of his leadership and we have a Republican Governor and a second term Republican President because of his leadership in the southern states and his strategy knowledge.

    Many of the people against RR are do because they don’t like Christians in this realm and want a secular Rockefeller Republican party.

    Any religious person who is not angelic will be labeled a hypocrite by these people.

    I want someone who gets things done. RR does.

    The stupid comments on this blog only make me support RR more.

  12. grassrootsguy says:

    Brilliant observations Silence. I have worked on the grassroots efforts of many congressional campaigns including some in Georgia. Reed is know for his grassroots knowledge and is often sought out for other campaigns.

    He is one of our heroes. It is ashamed that the liberal media is so out to get him. Even more so that some Republicans in Georgia have joined in before nothing sinister or illegal has even been proven.

    Those of us who watch Georgia have noticed this terrible tendency among Republicans in your state for a long time.

    Reed will win. There is no doubt in my mind at all. And there is plenty of money in DC to help him with the general if needed.

  13. Erick says:

    Dude, you keep saying Ralph is going to win and talking up his campaign, but always caveat with “I’m not endorsing him.” That’s like farting and saying it doesn’t smell when people flee the scene. 😉

  14. Bull Moose says:

    The only reason anyone is saying anything about how Ralph Reed’s company made or makes its money is because Ralph himself has always put himself up as being a good choir boy…

    When you mislead and speak half truths it catches up with you and people do not like hypocrisy…

    Now as for Casey and why he will win…

    Casey Cagle actually started a small private business, met a payroll, and turned it into a successful venture. Casey was recognized by him community members as a leader and as such they elected him to the State Senate. Casey serves as Chairman of the Senate Finance Committee. He has real experience in crafting tax bills and understands the realistic process of making a legislative idea into a reality.

    On a personal side, Casey does not come from a society of entitlement. Having been raised by a single mom, Casey actually knows what it’s like to struggle to get by.

    Casey is running for this office because of a real committment and belief in giving back to the state and society.

  15. PeggyP says:

    Ya’ll should check out this speech on Ralph’s website. It’s great to see something out of his camp that really addresses some of the attacks used by his opponent and detractors. Honestly, I think this is one (of many) reasons why Ralph will win: he’s willing to address his negatives head-on and still manages to focus on the issues and stay positive. I’m convinced Casey can’t do anything but throw stones at Ralph. That’s all he’s got.

    Bull, your explanation that “Casey is running for this office because of a real committment and belief in giving back to the state and society” is pretty darn funny. It reads like you plagiarized it from a Cagle palm card or something.

  16. Maurice Atkinson says:

    “”””You guys need to get off complaining about how Ralph’s company made money. In your naive world, very few politicians or businessmen would make your list of the holy qualified to hold office.””””

    I have no problem with people earning money or being a self starter. This is America. I do have a problem with manipulation. This is quite apparent with several issues regarding Ralph. My problem concerning Ralph is his apparent misuse of the system. Not only in the casino case, but in his work for Channel One. He used his contact with the Christian Coalition to go after US Senator Richard Shelby (R-Alabama) because he conducted an inquiry into Channel 1. Ralph used the same process as he used in his venture with Abramoff, set up an entity to funnel the mony through to pay himself and the expenses. To me, that process is sinister. It’s playing both sides to earn an income.

    I ran into a good friend the other day who is an avid Reed supporter. She said, I am certain Casey conducted some questionable business practices as well. To my knowledge, no one has made any allegations against him. There have been no Senate inquiries into his business dealings and no indictments against his business partners. As far as I’m concerned, he is what he says he is. He is a straight up guy who practices what he preaches. That is precisely why I have decided to support him.

    I have consistently said I appreciate the organizational efforts he conducted when he led the Christian Coalition and the GAGOP. I am a beneficiary of his training. I attended various leadership schools in Indiana and Chaired a county CC for several years.

    I have not met one Cagle supporter who is anti-Christian, quite the contrary. I have met ministers and lay people who support him. I am a Christian and it is my understanding that Casey is a Bible believing Christian. At this point, I am quite satisfied with his Integrity and his leadership capabilities. The fact that some 200 elected officials have gone on record to support him is quite notable.

    This is not and should not be a war between Reedites and Cagleites. My comments are not meant to demean or look critical at anyone, other than to emphasize the facts that are open and available for all people to read and make an informed decision. This issue is one that should and is being addressed.

    This is a concern of many legislators. I have not heard anyone say this is not a concerned. If anyone thinks it is uncomfortable addressing this stuff now, just wait until after the primary. The other party will broad brush every Republican with this mess. To me it is just unnecessary.

  17. GAWire says:

    “””Reed was hired to do the jobs he did because he knows how to get things done.”””

    Let me re-phrase and claify: Ralph was hired to do the jobs (i.e. mislead, misrepresent, hire, bend the legal regulations, etc) he did because he knows how to get things done (i.e. he can bend the rules to make things go his way). So, that is what you want out of elected officials?

    That is why he WON’T get elected as Lt. Gov, Tater.

  18. GAWire says:

    “””I want someone who gets things done. RR does.”””

    Things? What things? Illegal deals? Misrepresentation? Breaking the law? Failing to comply with regulations? etc, etc, etc. Are those “things” you want “someone” to get done? If so, then yes … RR does those “things”!

  19. Bull Moose says:

    Peggy — Ralph doesn’t offer the same explanations to the same audiences… Based on the information that comes out his story is always changing…

  20. Bill Simon says:

    GrassrootsGuy…if Ralphie was so good at grassroots, why didn’t he have more of a stellar record in winning the campaigns he consulted on from 1997-2002?

    And, I’m excluding GWB from this because it wasn’t all due to Ralphie’s efforts that caused Bush to win.

  21. larry smith says:

    Silence,

    Your mom’s calling … dinner is ready. Time to log off the Internet and go polish off a big plate of tater tots and applesauce!

  22. Jack S says:

    I love all these “big shot” DC interns who post on here. “The view from DC is….”

    The view from down here is who cares what DC thinks! This is Georgia! We’ll decide our own races. You boys up there better start focusing on cutting spending and illegal immigration and ending the scandals or you’ll destroy our majority up there!

  23. Booray says:

    I don’t give a crap about Reed’s money. He’s slimy and Casey is not.

    What’s so hard to understand about this race?

  24. grassrootsguy says:

    May I please ask what happened to Mr DoGood’s post about campaign contributions?

    I believe that information is considered public or is at least available from the FEC or Secretary of State in Georgia, but if accurate it reflected a lot of detective work.

    Are articles censored here? I had heard this site was primarily for Cagle, but I thought all opinions could be voiced.

    From my quick read yesterday it appears that Sen Cagle and another Senator, his name escapes me, were using campaign contributions for influence. I suspect that happens often, but isn’t that somewhat related to what the charges are against Delay? My boss thinks Cagle has been planning this for some time.

    In any event, I tried to show that post to my boss this afternoon and it had disappeared. What gives?

    Is this site bought and paid for by Cagle?

    And I am not an intern, by the way, but work on campaigns, and have worked in Georgia, where I am originally from, from time to time.

  25. Jack S says:

    You supposedly work in campaigns and you supposedly work in DC and you are shocked to find out that Republican senators would support each other in contested campaigns?

    Reed staffers, cmon, you must think we’re as stupid as your boss thinks the Republican Senate and the Republicans in this state are.

  26. “The organization that RR built for the 2002 takeover”

    That was a Perdue Organization. Ralph Reed did very little to help anyone other than Saxby. I was a Perdue Staffer and I remember the disdain between both PFANG and GAGOP, and PFANG and SAXBYs Camp.

    Now RR gets all the credit. And I will allow so much, but let me tell you that that Perdue Organization, the 2002 organization, will not support RR if they had any inkling of what was going on in 02.

    There is just too much laughable stuff in your post to respond to all of it.

  27. Deal with it! says:

    I was also a campaign staffer for a race that wasnt helped by the party–ie. Ralph–in 2002. You’re right, only Saxby was helped…but, Ralph also hurt himself by not helping the little guys, since most of them now see right through him…except for a handful of legislators who are so close to him, he could have spit on them and they would trip overthemselves making excuses for him…
    unfortunately, i dont think any of this will play out in the primary with cagle/reed. i am supporting cagle, but this whole thing will boil down to how many pissed off people (who originally supported sonny) will vote in the dem primary, taking away from the “normal” primary vote that would NEVER vote for Ralph, ie…Casey’s vote.
    if ralph were smart, they’d launch a campaign convincing people to vote in the dem primary, to get rid of sonny. My basis for this? Many of the people are disappointed in sonny, and are convinced that sonny will be beat by whomever wins the dem primary.

  28. sethweathers says:

    you may want to checkout http://www.ralphreed.com – at this point Reed has not spent less than Casey on his web development – Reed is just making payments over time – as you will see he has a newly designed site

    have a great weekend!

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