Senate District 46

A little bird tells me that Bill Cowsert has already raised over $50,000 for that race and had 150 key leaders in Athens show up for his campaign kick off last night. This is Brian Kemp’s seat in the legislature, which was viewed as a possible Democrat pick up. If Cowsert can keep raising money like that, he should be in good shape. No other Republicans are expected to jump in.


  1. UGA Wins 2005 says:

    Cowsert will have some big shoes to fill but should do nicely when he is elected. However, he will have to campaign hard to beat Jane Kidd, as the district is so evenly divided.

    And having his brother in law as Ag Commissioner wont hurt either.

  2. DoubleDawg3 says:

    I agree with UGA – whoever fills that seat has some big shoes to fill, as Kemp has done an excellent job. However, while I like Bill Cowsert, it’s going to be extremely hard for any Republican to beat Jane Kidd in that district. Basically Kemp won b/c enough Dems from the area voted for him, probably there only R vote, however this time Kidd is the “native daughter” candidate (although she’s not “native” necessarily – her family, that of Gov. Ernest Vandiver, has strong ties to UGA and the area).

    Two more things worth noting: 1) remember that Kidd defeated Cowsert in the State House race just last year, and 2) Kemp was the incumbent, outraised Becky Vaughn by about (if not more) than $100,000 last year, and it was STILL a close race — I think that show its going to be tough for almost any other R to win that seat (especially against someone well known in the area like Kidd)

    Best of luck to Cowsert though.

  3. Capt. says:

    This is an awesome start for Cowsert. It shows what the people of Athens think of Jane Kidd I believe. Cowsert will have a tough battle ahead but will be a able to defeat someone like Jane Kidd.

    Kidd may have won in the house race, but that district is extremely unfavorable to a Republican, a good bit more so than the Senate seat.

  4. waterboy says:

    It wouldn’t be an issue if Kemp had sat tight in the district, but now he’s out – and about to “down and out” when the Ag Commissioner primary wraps up. He doesn’t stand a chance against Gary Black.

    It’s a loss for the Senate district and the Republican Party, but I’m sure he’ll surface again in a few short years.

  5. Jack S says:

    Waterboy, your empty rhetoric and school girl crush on Gary is getting old.

    Capt nailed it.

    If Jane Kidd is so strong in Athens why did 150 Athens leaders show up and contribute $50,000 to Cowsert? That’s a lot of people and a lot of money!

  6. Bill Simon says:

    Cowsert, I think, is related to Brian Kemp. Waterboy apparently has been drinking too much out of those little soap bubble bottles to make any sense.

  7. waterboy says:

    Cowsert is getting the money Kemp would have picked up had he not jumped ship. Not sure what problem Jack S has…other than wanting to ignore the facts about Kemp’s Ag campaign.

    DoubleDawg has the right idea….the power of incumbency is a real plus and the Republicans have lost it for this Senate race. Certainly the Dems have the momentum now.

  8. landman says:

    Waterboy, Kemp did not jump ship he like others felt there needed to be a Republican in our primary for Ag Commissioner.This race will be won by Kemp easily and Bill will defeat Kidd in a close race.

  9. waterboy says:

    landman – how is Kemp going to beat Gary Black? Kemp has NO EXPERIENCE in agriculture and NO SUPPORT from the industry. I get the weekly Gary Black newsletters and he blazing a trail across the state.

    This thread is about the Senate district, so let me boil it down for you….Kemp walked away from his district and handed it over to Kidd on a silver platter just so he could run for a job he is not qualified for – NOT a brilliant move.

  10. landman says:

    Waterboy-Kemp is going to win this race by running a far superior statewide campaign than Black.You are not being fair to yourself if you are underestimating Brian Kemp’s ability.His support among those regulated by the Ag Departmnent are larger than you think and his statewide contacts due to his standing in the senate are very significant.

    The political calculas just doesnt add up to a Black victory,look at it like this,by answering these questions:
    1.How many total votes are there within the Ag Industry to begin with?
    2.Of the number above ,how many do you believe will vote in our primary vs the dem primary?You have to be honest with yourself here because both Dem Gov candidates hail from the farm belt section of our state.
    3.Of the number above give the percentage you believe Black will get vs Kemp.

    After you do this then the question becomes of the remaining Republican Primary voters(which is a much larger voting block) who are they going to vote for and trust to run a multi billion dollar department,a proven Conservative RepublicanSenator that has a proven record of beating entenched Democratic opposition or a Johnny come lately Democrat Lobbyist with no executive experience in budgetary or legislative matters.

    Gary should have cut a deal with Mr. Tommy and took his chances running against Brian in the General.He would have had a much better chance to win.

  11. landman says:

    Waterboy,I dont know what happened with my last post,but my point is this,if you take the total# of votes within the Ag industry as a whole,then subtract the number that will not even vote in our primary,(this number may be larger than you think,due to both dems being in farm country)you are not dealing with a large number of votes.Divide these votes up between Black and Kemp at whatever you feel the split will be,once again I think Kemp will get more than you think but go with what you feel will happen.
    After this number is set then you get to the numbers that matter and those are the remaining Republican voters across the state.This block of voters will determine this race,and who do you think they are going to vote for ,a proven Conservative Republican Senator who has a proven record of defeating entrenched Democratic opposition and has the legislative and business experience to run a Multi Billion dollar department;or, a Johnny come lately Democrat LOBBYIST.
    When you look at it like this its a no brainer.Gary,should have cut a deal with Mr. Tommy and ran against kemp in the General.The outcome would have been the same but he would have had a better chance of making it close.

  12. waterboy says:

    landman….you are full of wishful thinking. If Georgia voters want a candidate who KNOWS NOTHING ABOUT THE INDUSTRY OF AGRICULTURE then Kemp is the right candidate.

    Cowsert has a better chance of beating Kidd in the senate race then Kemp does of beating Gary Black in the Ag primary…..oh, better watch for those flying pigs too!

  13. Jack S says:

    i’m not exactly sure what Kemp has been up to lately but I know one thing for sure – he’s scaring the cowpies out of Gary Black’s staffers on this site.

    We get a post about how a good Republican is off to a great start in a competitive district and Gary’s staff goes completely nuts. The argument for Gary Black’s campaign amounts to nothing more than a hysterical rant by the same ol staffers.

    So congrats to Kemp. Whatever you’re doing is apparently working. Keep up the good work.

  14. The one thing I learned from this thread is that there is approximately 1 leader for every 690 Athenians. When you exclude Democrats and Independents, the ratio gets even friendlier. It seems to me that this was less of a gathering of “leaders” than it was a plain old fundraiser.

    But hey, my 4th of July BBQ forum on world economic development still has some openings…

  15. Bill Simon says:

    “Calculus?” Did Landman use the word “calculus” in a political discussion?

    Wow! This political stuff gets more and more interesting everyday!…if we’re going to start using calculus to solve political problems, then I’ll dust-off my Georgia Tech-issued slide rule and get my log tables in order.

  16. Z Corlensky says:

    I was at the farm bureau meeting in savannah today and the word is wayne dollar is not running for president of farm bureau again.

    I spoke with one of gary blacks supporters who said that gary knows he can’t beat tommy and was gearing up the campaign to position to run for this.

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