Thoughts on campaigns…

On this issue of polling, you must consider the fact that Casey Cagle isn’t even mentioned. That would denote that perhaps Cagle’s numbers were so dismal that they weren’t even worth mentioning…probably somewhere in the neighborhood of 6% favorable, 9% unfavorable, and 85% unknown…no, Caglecampers, it doesn’t mean that his numbers were so good they omitted mention of them so as not to embarrass RR…When pollsters conduct polls this far out of the election, it means one of two things: one, the candidate is trying to boost his image to the public, and thus comes out with polling numbers favorable to him, or two, the pollster is aching for business, and conducts an early poll simply because it’s the only business he can get. The point is, polls DON’T MEAN ANYTHING right now. The simple fact of the matter is, unless you’re a political – freak – junky – analyst – guy (sorry, I’ve been hearing too many Bud Light radio commercials…) like all of us on here, your opinion, while maybe affected, won’t be truly formed until a few weeks before the election. Bill Simon is right: we have impulse voters just like we have impulse buyers. I think faith in the collective intelligence of the body politic of our citizens is quite foolish…Sensationalism, or lack thereof, is a large factor in who people are attracted to. Charisma, not competence. Another interesting side note: an “undecided

32 comments

  1. jackson says:

    I love the fact that you mention that Casey Cagle was not mentioned in the poll (because of as yet, non-existent evidence that his numbers might be bad) then change course and say that “polls DON’T MEAN ANYTHING right now.” Then right below the your post is another post…talking about the SAME poll with Ralph and Casey. Do Ralph Reed supporters ever read the posts before you publish them? Or are they straight from the campaign?

    The arguments from the Reed Campaign are hilarious lately. Ralph Reed has bad numbers (His negatives are higher than his positives) but the polls dont matter. Then when he is ahead of Casey Cagle, then numbers do matter. If they dont matter and are not real, what gives you the impression that Ralph Reed is even ahead?

    But I digress. I have a question for all of you ought there: Does it not scare you to death that in every poll that has been done, one thing is consistent: That Ralph Reed’s negatives are on par with his positives. I am not a pollster, but you can’t tell me that is good news for Republicans, no matter how you slice it.

  2. Jack S says:

    There is a reason that Silence Dogood does whatever he does and is not a campaign manager and the last
    paragraph is reason enough.

    in this case, silence is not just good, it’s golden, becuase this guy just doesn’t
    know what he’s talking about.

    If I were a Gary Black or Tommy Irvin supporter like Silence surely is, I would
    be scared to death of the amazing campaign Brian Kemp is running. I received that mail
    package and it blew me away. We’ve never seen anything that sharp in an Ag race
    in this state – or quite frankly in many races that are bigger.

    As for his claims about Tommie Williams and state law, there is no other way to
    put it but that you’re flat wrong Silence.

    State legislators are allowed by state law to use the state seal for any purpose
    they want, including campaign and fundraising activities. Ask my good friend Mitchell Kaye about all that. That package is not only
    legit, it’s showing up every other candidate running right now. I bet he raised
    a mint off of it.

    On top of that, Tommie Williams is endorsing Kemp. I talked with Kemp’s campaign
    aide just a little while ago who told me that Tommie personally signed the letter
    for Brian. He’s fully on board.

    After what I’ve seen from Kemp’s campaign – his speech to our GOP meeting, this
    sharp mailer, and his willingness to call Tommy Irvin what he is (a lousy administrator
    and partisan, liberal Democrat) – I’m on board with Kemp. He’s the only guy who
    has what it takes to win.

    He must not have shown Silence the proper respect that Silence feels he’s entitled
    to as an all knowing, all important “insider”. Silence, get over yourself! And quit making all this stuff up trying to act like you know what’s going on.

    Others, like our Governor and his flunkies and Silence Dogood, should start paying attention. When
    an Ag candidate is running a sharper campaign than you are with virtually no staff
    and a substantially smaller budget, it’s time to pick up the pace or get out of
    the way.

    I’m becoming increasingly convinced that Silence is another name for Maverick, as in Maverick Johnson, who inexplicably doesn’t post here anymore.

  3. Silence says:

    Jackson,

    You should read things thoroughly before trying to make someone look like a fool. Look back at my post, second paragraph, line one, and you’ll see I clearly state that I’m making an assumption for the sake of discussion. Perhaps you’re not familiar with the practice of speaking rhetorically or theoretically. Just logistically though, in order to respond to your obviously spastic comments about my post, I didn’t mention RR v. CC polls after I made the statements about polling at this stage of the game being bull. Get your facts right.

    I have a question for you, j(J)ackson: you made this statement…”Does it not scare you to death that in every poll that has been done, one thing is consistent: That Ralph Reed’s negatives are on par with his positives.” Give us examples of that. Then debate with me and prove to me that polls at this stage of the game are to be taken seriously.

    Hissy Fit…you, perhaps unwittingly, perhaps on purpose, brought to light the one weakness that has caused every problem, such as they are, that Sonny has or will have. All of the struggles he’s experienced, aside the piles of crap left by the previous administration he had to deal with, have sprung from this one root problem: the assumption that Sonny won. In reality, I think the sentiment of the voters three years ago was ABB (Anyone But Barnes), not WWS (We Want Sonny). That radically changes the way one would view a re-election effort. Not that Sonny hasn’t done a good job…he’s done a great job. Not that Sonny isn’t a strong leader with character…he is. But none of those things matter if they voters don’t know about it. All the voters had time to do last time around was boot Barnes out, not help Sonny in. They don’t even know the guy, in many cases!

  4. Silence says:

    Here we go again with the “I’ve talked to Tommie’s people since you have and they said Tommie’s NOT endorsing the guy, nah, nah.”

    I am a Gary Black supporter, simply because I think he’s a better man for the job.

    Jack S…you neglected to mention my contention about the legally required disclaimer on the mailer…any comments?

    By the way, nice play on words regarding silence being golden. Touche.

  5. Jack S says:

    Silence, At least you’ll admit your support after the fact.

    It is simply stupid to assert that any candidate would send out anything with another elected official’s name on it without permission. It would just open a candidate up to being slammed by the official’s name they used. I know stupid is a harsh word, but cmon Silence! Your previous post was rumormongering at its worst with nothing to back it up. this site deserves better than that.

    As for the disclaimer issue, I can only speak to what I’ve been told by a legislator/friend of mine. She told me that the ethics commission or committee or whatever it is has decided that as long as a candidate has put his name and office he’s seeking clearly on the materials that he/she has complied with the law on disclsoures or disclaimers or whatever they’re called.

    I do know that your assertion that the Paid for by language has to be on the fundraising part of the mailer is simply not true. There is no such requirement in the law. I also know this legal issue is complicated. Apparently there’s some conflict between the law and the committee. that’s what I understand from my legislator friend. Aside from the fact that Kemp did have Paid for by on a part of the mailer, it was clear who it was for and who paid for it.

    You split hairs and you throw around words about stuff being potentially illegal in a very irresponsible way. Aside from being wrong, its destructive to our party.

    I sure hope you aren’t in a position of giving any advice to any elected officials. God help us all.

  6. Decaturguy says:

    Emily’s List is not a gay rights group. It is a pro-choice woman group that supports pro-choice women candidates.

    You might be confused because the new head of the Human Rights Campaign, a gay rights group, used to be the head of Emily’s List. He took a lot of heat from gay rights supporters because Emily’s List supported a lot of candidate who were pro-womens rights, and pro-abortion rights, but were not necessarily in support of gay rights.

  7. Silence says:

    Jack S — I am. And is that more destructive to our party, than say, overt attacks on the Governor by saying he and his flunkies don’t have their act together?

    DecaturGuy — Thanks for the clarification. Does it surprise you, as a Democrat, that CC would turn the support of such an organization down?

  8. Hissy Fit says:

    I want to address this point that Silence made: “Sensationalism, or lack thereof, is a large factor in who people are attracted to. Charisma, not competence.”

    I think this is my problem with the Governor (even though I will vote for him). He lacks charisma. I don’t know why because I think he is a great man but he is lacking something in the charisma department.

  9. Jack S says:

    you’re probably another govt employee spending taxpayer paid for time writing blogs. great!!!

    As for the overt attack stuff on the gov. It’s not an attack. It’s a statement of fact that they don’t have their act together. Ask virtually any member of the legislature and everybody on here.

    They don’t even do the simple stuff like hand out a campaign card or bumper stickers at GOP events. legislators don’t get their calls returned.

    They need to get it in gear or they are going to lose – and you’ll probably lose your job too! no more blogging on state time if that happens!!!!

  10. Tater Tate says:

    I got the Kemp mailer and it was very impressive. Wonder who else Tommie Williams might do this for? Is he doing one for Cagle?

    The Ag race is another one where we have great candidates. I lean towards Kemp, but Black seems strong in my neck of the woods. I think this will be another difficult race and it is hard to predict the outcome.

  11. jackson says:

    Wow, Silence, someone woke up on the wrong side fo the bed today.

    1. “You should read things thoroughly before trying to make someone look like a fool.” Actually, how you look is up to you. I don’t try to do anything except raise questions and question faulty arguements.

    2. “…I didn’t mention RR v. CC polls after I made the statements about polling at this stage of the game being bull.” My point was not that you mentioned it. You made the comment that ” you must consider the fact that Casey Cagle isn’t even mentioned. That would denote that perhaps Cagle’s numbers were so dismal that they weren’t even worth mentioning.” The post by Erick Erickson below yours is the same poll that you cite (and discredit), but that poll also includes information about Casey Cagle that was released. Wether it was included in Erick’s post or not has nothing to do with wether or not Casey Cagle’s numbers might be bad.

    3. To answer your question as to which polls have been done, I will cite: The recent insider advantage poll (that we are discussing now), the strategic vision poll, discussed by Erick Erickson on his 8/4 post; the 5/17 strategic vision poll, as well as the oxendine poll (sorry, don’t know who did this.). They all show Ralph Reed with High negatives.

    I am not going to debate with you how serious they are because that would really get no where. My point is that in all of the polls, that one issue was consistent.

    Did I get all my facts right, now?

    On a lighter note, I do agree with you that we should not be hammering the Governor. We need to stick together.

    BTW, what is all the hubbub about Brian Kemp. So what, he sent out a letter. What is the big deal?

  12. Silence says:

    On that, Jackson, I completely agree with you. Whether his people want to admit it or not, I think the Governor’s in bad shape in some areas of this state, and we should be bending over backwards to get him re – elected, instead of pointing out his weaknesses then doing nothing.

    Actually, I did get up on the wrong side of the bed this morning…

  13. stephaniemills21 says:

    Cathy is not turning down Emily’s List money, despite Bill Shipp’s claims (though I am sure they came from her campaign). The truth is that they do not really ever give a candidate much money, they funnel money into a race, like every other special interest group.

  14. Bull Moose says:

    Gary Black or whatever his name is just another lobbyist and we don’t need to be electing lobbyists to serve the public trust. As a party we aren’t desperate.

  15. waterboy says:

    If you know agriculture, you know Gary Black. If you know Gary Black, you know a class act. Those that speak ill of him are showing their own ignorance regarding the responsibilities of the Agriculture Commissioner. Yes, I support Gary Black, along with a long list of others from all over the state. He has the experience and knowledge for the job. I hope many of you will support Gary as well.

    I also support Casey Cagle. He has earned the support of many that have watched him in action. The business community will be well served by his leadership and drive for solutions. My vote will be FOR Casey Cagle, not AGAINST Ralph Reed.

  16. Romegaguy says:

    Silence and Bill Shipp are wrong about Cathy Cox and EMILY’s List. If she isnt taking their support, why is there an EMILY’S list staffer living in Decatur and working on a certain woman candidate for Governor’s campaign? Maybe Cathy’s campaign doesnt want the national support public at this time (it’s not even on EMILY’s website list of candidates) but the support is definitely there behind closed doors. Ask people that were at the candidate training at the first of the summer that EMILY’s list staff did here in Atlanta what campaign was being talked about the most. If I had time to kill I would look through Cathy’s disclosure and come up with further proof but some of us work for a living.

  17. Romegaguy says:

    Oops, I almost forgot

    To say you are voting for Brian Kemp just because you got some slick mailer produced by some group in DC signed (by hand or by machine) by the Majority leader is pretty stupid. Tommy Irving may be a partisan but he is well supported by rural voters that vote for the GOP straight down the line except for his race. Which is why he will be tough to beat. Kemp doesnt have what it takes to beat him, and probably doesnt have what it takes to beat Black or Black’s connections in this state.

    While we are counting endorsements, how many members of Congress and how many state legislators have endorsed each candidate for Ag commissioner? Anyone? Which candidate, Kemp or Black, was personally recruited to run by the Governor? Anyone?

  18. jackson says:

    “To say you are voting for Brian Kemp just because you got some slick mailer produced by some group in DC signed (by hand or by machine) by the Majority leader is pretty stupid”. If it is “stupid” to want to vote for someone because of their endorsement, why does it matter that we count them Romegaguy?

    Or was your point that you shouldnt vote for someone because they had their mailer produced in DC. If we eliminate folks with mailers/campaign materials produced in DC, then I guess that leaves Ralph Reed out of the running too.

  19. Romegaguy says:

    Didnt know I was voting for little Ralphie…

    My point about endorsements is this: of the people that know Sen Kemp and work with him daily in the legislature, most of them have chosen to endorse his opponent, Gary Black. If the people that know him best are not supporting him then why should the average Georgian?

  20. jackson says:

    “of the people that know Sen Kemp and work with him daily in the legislature, most of them have chosen to endorse his opponent.” It is my understanding is that almost every member of the state senate and an overwhelming majority of house members are supporting Brian Kemp. Are there otherer people that “know him best?” Or maybe your were referring to “that group in DC.”

    As far as Ralph Reed, the point was never that you are voting for him. My point was that it is a silly arguement (if it was your arguement) to say that because a persons campaign materials MIGHT have been printed somewhere, it means we should or should not vote for them. (Unless, they had it done in communist china, then I might be inclined to agree.)

  21. Bill Simon says:

    Silence, it’s a simple fact: MOST of the people at UGA ARE under-age. Freshmen are MOSTLY 18. Sophomores are MOSTLY 19. Juniors are MOSTLY 20. Only Seniors have the distinction of being MOSTLY 21 or over.

    By simple statistic inference, MOST of the people drinking beer on UGA campus ARE under-aged.

  22. Porter Bates says:

    I’d hate to spend all the money it would take to out all those college students in jail for drinking beer.

  23. Porter Bates says:

    I’d hate to spend all the money it would take to put all those college students in jail for drinking beer.

  24. Silence says:

    Bill — Good deductive logic, but we’re still assuming these kids were underage, not necessarily contenting that we can prove it, am I correct?

  25. Bill Simon says:

    As of this moment, you are correct that we are only assuming they were underaged. However, the pictures I have show no one keeping watch on the beer keg checking IDs.

    However, rumor has it that the UGA campus police issued a citation to the Reed campaign because they weren’t checking IDs. I have not had time to write an Open Records Act request to discover if that citation exists.

  26. Bill Simon says:

    To Jack S who said “It is simply stupid to assert that any candidate would send out anything with another elected official’s name on it without permission. ”

    Pardon me while I laugh my ass off at your assumption. The fact is, Ralph Reed himself has, on many, many occasions sent out mailers with names tacked-on a list of supposed “supporters” when, in fact, not all of the people were asked and not all of the people would ever support Ralph.

    Case in point, while not being an elected official, Gabriel Sterling of Sandy Springs is NOT a supporter of Ralph Reed, yet his name appeared on an invitation sent out by the Reed campaign in early June for a Young Professionals fundraiser.

    The fact is, your statement, while inherently true, does not mean that no candidate would ever stoop so low as to claim that someone supports them when, in fact, they haven’t even asked the alleged supporter for permission to place their name on an endorsement letter of support.

    All that aside, my knowledge of Joel McElhannon tells me that, as Brian Kemp’s campaign consultant, I’m willing to bet a lot of money that the use of Senator Tommie Williams’s name is QUITE valid as being a true supporter/endorser of Brian Kemp for State Ag.

  27. Porter Bates says:

    Has anyone else read Bill Shipp’s piece this morning about Lynn Westmoreland? Is he implying that Lynn might jump into a statewide race next year? I wonder if he might get into the LG’s race if Reed takes a tumble? Or would he challenge Sonny?

    Just wondering.

  28. landman says:

    Has anyone read the New York Times front page article concerning another one of RR’s Scotland golfing buddies getting arrested.That leaves the number of two left that have not been arrested or indicted.Oh the webs we weave when first we try to decieve………..

Comments are closed.