Talking Bout The Dems

I spent a while today talking with a well connected Democrat. Interestingly, despite very good polling for Cathy Cox a lot (more than just this friend) of Democrats still think Taylor is going to win. They all cite what they consider Taylor’s greater experience in elected politics, Cathy Cox’s appearance as the more liberal candidate, and Taylor’s theorized support in the black community.

Also, several Dems, including this one, are theorizing that Taylor, through outside groups, will be able to make strong inroads in both the black and conservative Dem communities by painting Cox as a liberal supported by gay rights groups and others. A significant urban constituency will not go for that, but the thinking is that if Taylor can tie up black voters through cultural issues — connecting through the church — and suburban and rural conservative Democrats, he will be able to beat Cox.

Taylor, it is presumed, will make the case that he is right on the cultural issues and on the social/economic/other issues that black voters and conservative Democrats care about. He will attempt to contrast himself from Cox on those conservative social issues — issues where black voters are actually aligned more with evangelical Republicans than liberal Democrats.

Interestingly, I have had several Democrats tell me that they “know” what Taylor has on Cox and outside groups are already being tapped to spread the information. Vague hints are all I get, but one told me, “Mark knows Cathy will try to take on his ethics. He intends to put her in a position that would neutralize the criticism against him.”

Lastly, several elected Democrats tell me they consider the House and Senate to be fairly safe for the GOP and the Democrats really think they can take out the Governor and Kathy Cox, while holding all the other state wide seats.

Says one, “By the time Cagle and Reed are done with each other, no Republican is going to be capable of getting elected in that position. Secretary of State is perhaps our weakest link, and we’re sure we can even take that.” He also pointed out that Lieutenant Governor would be a “weak link” for the Democrats except for the expected intra-party blood bath on the Republican side.

13 comments

  1. RandyFMT says:

    “Greater experience in electoral politics?” Man, that’s like touting the long career of the Titanic’s captain even as the ship goes down.

    First it was, she can’t raise the money. Then she out-raised him. Oops.

    Next it was, we’ve got the party insiders locked up. Then a majority of the Democratic leaders endorsed her. D’oh!

    They’re still trying to pull the wool over your eyes. It’s the same old tired, wishful thinking, complicated & convoluted tangled BS theory that the Taylor-ites have trotted out.

    If he’s so strong with rural dems, why does she lead him there by double digits? If she’s so liberal, why does she lead with moderate and conservative voters (not to mention Republicans), or have positions to the right of Taylor on social issues? If he’s going to win with Black votes, why has she been endorsed by so many more African American leaders (not to mention the polls)?

    This whole idea that Cathy Cox will silently stand by while Taylor (who’s gone in front of liberal groups and argued that he’s a better Democrat because she has a Rep. campaign chair) paints her as something she’s not is just foolishness. Has anything about this campaign so far made you think that Cox will just stand around and take it? She’s been running hard against Taylor with a big smile, and succeeding, while he’s been painted into the “politics as usual” corner.

    I have no idea what the Cox people have on Taylor. I asked one friend who’s in their camp and he would say only that “Taylor is a target rich environment.” But I have noticed that the Cox team’s theory of victory doesn’t depend on ifs, ands or buts. Unlike the Taylor camp’s version above, It’s not reliant on third parties swooping in on white horses, waving their magic political wands and drastically changing the behavior and minds of Georgia voters with some super-double-duper secret research.

    Once again, this really does come down to common sense. Sometimes we overthink this stuff or try to get too clever.

    Full Disclosure: I intend to vote for Cathy Cox.

    Fuller Disclosure: I intened to vote for Cathy Cox in part because I long ago got fed up with this sort of stupidity out of the Taylor camp. That fool’s been running our party since Barnes lost and look what it got us – nothing.

    EricK my friend, I congratulate you on stirring the pot with your post. But I think you need some new Democratic sources to talk to.

    Congratulations, by the way – daddy!

  2. Hammertime says:

    Taylor has run against tough competition before. He has beat a female candidate before. He is a focused, hungry candidate that can take a punch. And it’s the media that pushes the female thing. Ask Schrenko and Dooley and Broyles whether it worked. It’s a 51-49 race no matter who wins the nomination.

  3. Melb says:

    I agree that the Democrats will win the Governor’s race be it Taylor or Cox, but there is no way we are going to win Secretary of State and we will lose the Labor Commissioner seat if Michael Thurmond runs for Lt. Gov.

  4. Booray says:

    Dems are fooling themselves about this governor’s race. Just completely fooling themselves. If Perdue had been “expected” to win three years ago, his numbers right now would make him a fairly safe bet to win re-election. It’s all just carryover from his supposedly “accidental” win.

    Kind of like the carryover on GW because of his “accidental” win in 2000. Sure hurt him in 2004, didn’t it… 🙂

  5. Melb says:

    These are two very different Governor’s races and Perdue has NONE of the steam or charisma of GW. Probably more than 1/3 of his own party doesn’t want to vote for him, teachers don’t like him, and the flaggers are calling him a liar. Right now people are thinking should I vote for Cathy Cox or should I vote for Mark Taylor, not about Perdue. If the Democrats fooled themselves with Barnes maybe you should learn from our mistakes.

  6. sam says:

    Erick, you seemed smarter than this. The only way that Taylor has a chance (and anyone — their camp, Cathy’s camp, or your insider friends — will tell you) is that if he drags Cathy’s name through the mud. His desire to win this race has obviously already overtaken his sensibilities — otherwise he would not be in it. He can work this whisper campaign or publicize unfounded rumors all he wants, but at the end of the day, Cathy is running a great campaign and with her head held high. His campaign is locked behind closed doors seething mad because it is not going their way. Want to start placing bets on when he lashes out like a trapped animal?

  7. Erick says:

    Sam,
    I’m not going to take offense at that. All I’m doing is telling y’all what others are telling me. I don’t endorse it and I really think that this is Cathy’s to lose. But, I’m just passing on information.

    Don’t shoot the messenger.

  8. Porter Bates says:

    My wife received an inviation to a fundraiser for Cox in Macon. Cox has an unbelievable host committee that should worry Perdue as much or more than Taylor. There are people on that list who ordinarily are at Repuiblican fundraisers. Admittedly, some are soft Rs, but if they have left Sonny, I am even more scared than before.

    I hope Taylor can resurrect his campaign, or at least be strong enough financially to “drag her through the mud” and make her spend all of her cash, giving Sonny an advantage through to the home gate. This one will be difficult–no cake walk to get Sonny another 4 years.

  9. Big Mack says:

    Campaign sign seen in Albany “He’s helped you for 20 years-Now it’s time for you to help him- Vote for Mark Taylor for Governor” Cathy Cox does not have a chance of beating Taylor. Fred Taylor has enough money to burn a wet dog. Everybody in south Georgia knows what Taylor has on Cathy Cox.

  10. Tater Tate says:

    My D friends tell me Taylor’s campaign has information about promises Cox has made to gay groups. It will come out at the right time. Supposedly some Atlanta gay org will endrose her.

    They think that the more conservatice Ds and even some of the A-Americans will come back to the fold when her lib credentials are made clear to all.

    It will probably get really nasty and that is good for Sonny.

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