Georgia’s Lt. Governor Contest Remains Close

09/09/05 – A survey of Georgians likely to vote in the Republican Primary in Georgia next year asked: “If the primary election for Republican candidate for Lieutenant Governor of Georgia was held today and the candidates were Casey Cagle and Ralph Reed who would you vote for?

19 comments

  1. Bill Simon says:

    53% is still a bunch of people who answered that they were undecided between the two…too high a percentage to begin to do any real extrapolations about the primary.

    And, could it be that 53% is really undecided? Seems to me that there would still be a chunk of people (however small) who do not know either of the candidates. Would they be included in the 53% merely because they cannot make a decision based on people they don’t know?

  2. Tater Tate says:

    I tend to agree with Bill. However, I think it is a stretch to say seven points is not significant at this point. That’s good spin, but I’d take a seven point lead at this point in the race.

    Here are the facts:

    Fact: very few are paying any attention at this point.
    Fact: the undecided number does suggest many have an open mind about this race.
    Fact: RR will out raise CC and I believe he will also out organize.
    Fact: the person who works the hardest, organizes the grassroots, and yes has substantially more resources will likely win.

    I think this will be a hard fought, close primary election.

    I still give it to RR 52-54% to 48-46%.

    This is RR’s to fumble in my opinion. In spite of the vitriol of previous posts on this race, I like both and either will lead us to victory in November and do a fine job in the office.

    I have been surveying some of the counties from Macon south and I still find RR to be strong among grassroots leaders and workers. I suspect CC is much stronger nearer his base. This is a long road and both candidates have much work to do.

  3. Porter Bates says:

    In Macon Ralph Reed has most of the big guns lined up from Bob Hatcher, Ben Hinson, Debra Lyons, and Ron Payne on down. I know he has Otis Ingram in Monroe County, and Rick and Judy Goddard in Houston County. With the Goddards usually comes Mercer support. I am told Kirby Godsey is leaning toward Ralph Reed. Now that will be an odd pair.

    I think middle GA is Reed country as of right now. Does anyone know if Cagle plans to even come down here?

  4. Doc says:

    Being that close is probably a good sign for Casey. Everyone knows Ralph and almost no one knows Casey.

    I would answer “undecided” today but I have made up my mind not to vote for Ralph (even though I like Ralph and hope he remains a behind-the-scenes operative).

    Many “undecided” voters have probably passed on Ralph but are not yet sure about Casey.

  5. Rebel says:

    Now what firm did this “un-biased” poll? And why in the world does a firm just do a poll for the fun of it? And who posted the results? The Cagle camp couldn’t have…wouldn’t have…

    That’s right – fantasy land is where Cubs fans live – we live in the real world where politicians will try anything to keep their floundering campaigns alive.

    By the way, didn’t the Cagle campaign send out a memo in April announcing all their big guns (Consultant, Direct Mail, Media, & Polling)? Yes they did. We’ve seen Joel’s behind the scenes work to attack Reed, we saw Jay working the convention and his printed materials, we saw the video instead of a speech, and now we see “unbiased/independent” polls showing Reed ahead but not by much.

    Anyone want to buy the Brooklyn Bridge…Bull Moose can get you a great price! 🙂

  6. jackson says:

    Poll was done by Matt Towery, of Insider Advantage. Towery gave money to Ralph Reed. Just thought you should know so you didnt look too stupid with your post.

  7. Rebel says:

    Jackson…
    see line 205 (7/29/05) of cagle’s disclosure for Insider Advantages donation of $200 to lowell’s campaign

    also see line 795 (6/22/05) of reed’s disclosure for Towery’s “in-kind” donation of a “location for a fund-raiser”

    looks like we’re both stupid!

  8. Bill Simon says:

    Rumor has it little Ralphie had a tailgate party on Saturday before the UGA game and ANYONE who wanted a beer got one out of the keg. Including lots of under-aged kiddies with NO ONE checking IDs. (By the way, I have pictures which will be posted on PV some time relatively soon)

    Reminds me a lot of Ralph’s claim that he never bothered to check to see where the Indian casino money came from. Yeah, this guy’s the one we want as Lt. Governor. See no evil, hear no evil, speak no evil if it means getting more votes OR more money into his pocket.

  9. Knight Rider says:

    Towery signed on with Reed early, when it looked like Reed had Big Mo. He threw a fundraiser for Reed at his house. When Reed took a nosedive in Towery’s polling, Towery changed his tune. Towery is not in cahoots with either candidate. Towery is for Towery.

  10. Tater Tate says:

    Bumped into a CC supporter yesterday, rare in my part of south GA, somebody connected to the beer industry. Said they didn’t like RR because they assumed he was anti beer and spirits. Guess they would be surprised about the keg at the game.

    I guess that is a fine line RR has to walk. How does he calm those who don’t want a far right wing religious LG while holding on to that part of the base of the party?

    There are pragmatic religious conservatives in my neck of the woods who will not mind beer, but there are some who will not like the fact that RR serves alcohol. Many are used to it. How many Republican functions do you go to that don’t serve it in some form?

  11. jackson says:

    Actually Rebel, I didnt say he didnt give to Casey Cagle. I said he gave to Ralph Reed. My point: It wasn’t the Cagle campaign putting out “fantasy” numbers, as you sarcastically imply. The fact is, whether Ralph Reed wants to admit it or not, he has a hell of a race on his hands. And it is not just because Casey Cagle says so.

  12. Bill Simon says:

    Tater, we have laws in this state about under-aged drinking. It is illegal. For some future elected official wannabe to flagrantly serve alcohol to minors is not endearing to me as a legal Georgia resident.

  13. Tater Tate says:

    Bill, I am touched by your concern for the youth of Georgia. Of course, I agree that serving alcohol to minors is unlawful. But that is not what this is really about, is it?

    You claim to have pictures. Are we talking about 12 year olds here, or people about whom you really don’t know their ages? Isn’t this just another cheap shot at RR? Your peculiar hatred for RR is well know and apparent to all who frequent these pages or your own web site.

    I admit I am leaning toward RR. But he does have a difficult campaign ahead and it is not clear at this point what may happen. If CC wins I’ll be behind him 100% because Republicans need to win the down ticket statewide races.

    But your cheap shots are not what will take RR down. You are entitled to your opinion, of course, but the CC camp would do well not to let you carry their water.

    I hope both of these guys get the chance to share their visions for the future of Georgia, why they want this position anyway, and run a good positive campaign that will lead to a Republican victory in November.

    I don’t know what is gained by trying to make either candidate a devil.

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