Speaking with someone on background, I’m told that the Speaker firmly believes in supporting incumbents and while he clearly does not condone or support past acts, the Speaker does intend to support incumbent Republicans and that includes Graves.
When asked about the Joey Brush “support in name only” situation, I was told that is a misunderstanding. If you look at the record from that election, you will find that Bill Stephens, Casey Cagle, Eric Johnson, and the Governor all lent their support in the primary.
Graves can probably expect the same on the House side, past indiscretions regardless.
It should be remembered that, despite a not very pleasant divorce and hard feelings among some of the “country club set,” Graves still ran for re-election last time and was unopposed. That said, I’ve heard rumors in the past that he would have gotten opposition had the lines been drawn slightly differently.
Again, I think use of the video tape could be very damaging to Graves.