Good News for Perdue & Reed

According to a Strategic Visions poll, Governor Perdue would beat Cathy Cox 51-45 with 4% undecided and Mark Taylor 52-40 with 8% undecided. I’m told that those numbers track closely to more detailed internal polling by Perdue and one of the Democrats.

Additionally, the same poll found that 58% of Georgians think we are on the right track.

Lastly, the poll found that among Republicans Reed leads Cagle 48-35. More interesting, Reed has a 54-36 favorable-unfavorable rating and Cagle has a 37-12 favorable-unfavorable rating. The Cagle campaign had seemed content to keep all the attention on Reed and his casino money problems. But, with this latest poll out, perhaps the Cagle campaign will begin shifting gears. However, with almost a year left, it might actually be wise for Cagle to continue raising money without expending large sums now and see where the Abramoff investigation will head once Congress gets back to it.

Is the public paying attention to the Abramoff story and its implications on Reed? Probably not. And if they are, I don’t know that they really understand it. It seems clear that though the AJC has thrown almost everything they have at Reed — was that a sink I just saw fly by — it has not dented Reed significantly among the GOP. But, and it is a huge but, I wonder what impact the coverage has had with general election only and swing voters.

[UPDATE] A friend calls to point out that, while I should be encouraged that Sonny is over 51%, we should not treat is as good news for him. There is a year to go and lots of money to be spent and he is barely over 50%. But, given the economy, the lack of media attention on the Governor personally, etc., I think it is pretty good news for him. While the GOP is writing him off, a majority of the state would vote to re-elect him. Well done.

32 comments

  1. Isakson Republican says:

    I do not know you can say that Reed has not been “dented significantly” by the casino scandal. According to the poll you cite, 37% of REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS view him unfavorably. Presuming that Democrats and Independents will view him more unfavorably than his own party members, his general election unfavorable rating is probably 60% or more. That makes him unelectable.

    Also, I do not understand how you can say that the casino story is “over.” The McCain hearings and FBI investigation have only just begun. There will be more hearings this fall, a report next spring and perhaps indictments. Our party will be dogged by Reed’s troubles through the election.

  2. Bull Moose says:

    Okay — this is an early poll — VERY EARLY…

    On some levels, I think this is way too early for a poll on a statewide race, but at the same time, I’m glad people are starting early — I just hope that they use this time to learn about Georgia and how to best continue moving her forward.

    I’ll go ahead and say this — our state has made a turn economically and its been thanks to Republican Leadership and our Governor. While, I’m not a huge fan, I will give credit where it is due and in this case, the Governor has lead us out of nere financial crisis and things are looking good for us. We can’t jeopardize that progress.

    I think you’ll see a lot of people feel like they like Cathy Cox, but maybe not enough to trust her and the Democrats to be back in power in the Governor’s office… She’s a nice lady and all, but really, do we need a liberal Democrat running Georgia?

    As for the Lt. Governor’s race — the Indian Affairs Committee will resume hearings on the Abramoff issue after the Roberts confirmation. There is still A LOT more to come out of this. As a former political operative, I don’t know how Republicans are justifying jeopardizing the Governor’s reelection by supporting Ralph Reed. If anyone hasn’t checked out the evidence released so far from the committee, you should do so. It will shock you as to how far Ralph has gone to mislead and flat out lie about his involvement with the casino issue and funding the various political efforts through pass through dummy non-profit corporations. At this point, I’m beginning to really have to stretch to say nice things about Ralph, so I’ll just say this, he’s a great strategist and political consultant and he does a good job of spinning the media, but as a state, can we really gamble on Ralph’s inexperience and ethical baggage to carry the day? Use some common sense here…

    As for Casey Cagle — he has got to get around the state and share his message one on one with the people of Georgia. If I were the Cagle consultants — I’d put him in the car and send him on his way all over the state of Georgia and let him get to be known across the state. They can plug fundraisers and what not along the way as needed, but during this August and September, Casey should barnstorm the state…

    When it is said and done, as a state, we can’t afford to gamble on inexperience and I think that Casey Cagle will come through in the end. His experience and ability will shine through to the voters of Georgia. He’s a common sense conservative and we need someone like that in office!

  3. Rebel says:

    Here we go again…

    The reason RR has an unfavorable rating as high as 36 is there is a large faction (which the above posters are part of) that is moderate on social issues (read liberal). Ralph is conservative – like Reagan & Bush.

    The real interesting number was Cagle’s unfavs. 12 for an unknown State Senator? Apparently, the relentless attacts from him and his surrogates (AJC, NYT, Howard Dean, Bill Simon, et. al) have had some effect.

    When it’s all said and done, the AJC and their ilk are not GOP friendly. If they are for you – it’s the kiss of death in our primary. When will Casey announce their endorsement of him on that oh so cool yet somehow never updated website?!?

  4. Bull Moose says:

    It’s an insult to Ronald Reagan’s memory to put him and Ralph Reed in the same category Rebel…

    I’m not attacking Ralph, I’m posting my opinion… That’s it — big difference…

    Ralph will be toxic for our party and our state.

  5. Rebel says:

    At least you realize it’s your opinion. Apparently a large percentage of the state disagrees since Ralphs favorables equal Cathy Cox’s and surpass Sonny’s in the Strategic Vision poll.

    If Casey’s dream team would heed your advice and he were to get out and campaign, he might get his name known. But that would require a vision for Georgia other than Ralph is bad – vote for me.

  6. ThePollster says:

    Rebel, learn to read, you are giving us rednecks a bad name.

    Ralph’s favorables are not higher than Sonny’s. You are comparing apples and rocks.

    Sonny’s numbers come from a question asked of all voters — Republicans, Democrats, Independents.

    Ralph’s numbers from a question asked only of Republicans.

    Ralph has almost 40% of his own party against him. If 40% of his own party is against him, the percentage of Democrats and Independents against him should be much higher. Given that 90% or more of Democrats would oppose him, I would not be surprised is 75% or more of all voters are against him.

    Ralph’s numbers are not “equal” to Cathy’s and “surpass” Sonny
    s. Ralph’s numbers are toxic and spell doom!

  7. legal72 says:

    Here is something interesting. Reed is at 48% and he has a lot of name recognition. Cagle on the other hand is at 35% and hardly has any name recognition. This tells me that Reed has reached his peak in name id and Cagle has a lot of room to work with to improve his numbers. Cagle can only go up.

  8. Rebel says:

    Per the cagle talking points – the “toxic” and “doom” express 😉

    Reed is “sailing” all over the state and getting a GREAT response while Cagle is still in the dock trying to figure how to start the engine without “negative gas.”

  9. Bull Moose says:

    Rebel — we could go back and forth for years on this so lets not do that… You like Reed — I like Cagle… Enough Said…

  10. Tater Tate says:

    Guys, guys, I go away for some vacation and come back only to find nothing has changed.

    Here’s my take. Lots of candidates win their Republican primary 53/47 or some such, only to come back and win the general with strong numbers.

    I think the CC people make way to much of this poll and RR’s negatives. Sure there are some Republican moderates who do not want RR to win and if he does, I doubt it will be much more than in the low 50s. But I do not think for a moment that reflects RR’s potential in the general.

    Remember, right now the Dems don’t even have a viable candidate for LG.

    I agree with one thing, CC needs to be all over this state, getting his name id up, cause if he spends all his money tearing RR down, I think it will back fire.

  11. albert says:

    Just in from Sonny’s Fish Fry. If Cagle intends on winning this election he is going to have to realize he needs to work the outer parts of the state. Cagle did appear and walked the floor with his staffers. However, Reed had a table and probably 20 or so folks working the area.

    I’m curious what the Governor thought of their showing. They allowed tables for candidates but did not want a sticker war going on inside, this was Sonny’s Fish Fry. The Reed folks apparently weren’t enlightened They were all over plastering folks with stickers. I mean, its petty and stuff, but wasn’t at all cool.

  12. Tater Tate says:

    I was at the Fish Fry too. RR’s folks seemed energized and in good form. Signs along the road, a table with banner, and lots of folks showing enthusiasm, much like the grassroots campaign he will run.

    Saw Cagle at a distance, but otherwise would know have know he was there.

    My guess this is but a sample of how the campaign will work out. Cagle won’t know what hit him come the morning after the primary.

    Like him or not, RR knows retail politics.

  13. Rebel says:

    Admittedly, I didn’t go to the Fish Fry. I just wasn’t excited about it. But here are a couple of points that are a concern for the Gov.

    NO US Senators or Congressmen felt the need to show up and support Sonny. The following state legislators were there (there may have been others but I’m having to rely on what 3 or 4 people have told me) The Speaker, Sen. Tommie Williams, Sen. Cecil Staton, Sen. Seth HArp, Sen. Joe Carter, Rep. Jay Roberts, and that’s it. (If you were there and saw others, please post – I’m not trying to give misinformation). Where’s Sonny’s support in the legislature?

    Then Sonny arrived, spoke, and basically left without EVER working the crowd. He doesn’t need to be worried about what Ralph or Casey are doing – he needs to be campaigning. Or has he taken our votes for granted?

  14. Warrior says:

    Governor has solid support among legislators. Dozens were still out in Irvine, TX at ALEC Convention (where Earl Erhart is the national President). Congressmen probably on family vacation for August recess. They need it!

  15. albert says:

    Rebel, you’re way off. I saw Rep. Allen Freeman, Ross Tolleson and probably at least 1000 other folks. There were a lot of of the hierachy and faithul there, which is what this event was supposed to achieve. I didn’t see RR (although strong representation), Bill Stephens and Perry McGuire were both absent. It is my understanding they were already on vacations with their families.

    Perry McGuire had a staffed table with supporters. Stephens had about 5 folks with stickers but not working the crowd. Karen Handel attended without any propaganda and just greeted folks.

    I saw people from North Georgia, Savannah and South Georgia. I felt the event was a huge success for the Governor. An event, not tied to any other event the last weekend before school; when most folks are on vacation or getting their last minute shopping done, it brought folks from everywhere.

  16. Rebel says:

    Albert – I’m not talking about the 1000 regular people. With the names you added, we’re now up to 8 elected members of the legislature. Is that all or were there others?

  17. Randy says:

    Maybe I’m missing something, but why are these numbers great for Perdue? Roy Barnes was at 57% job approval at this same point in his reelection. Perdue is the Republican Governor of a state that leans Republican, and he’s only in the low 50s? The numbers don’t say he’s toast no matter what, but they do point to broad noninterest in him. As for Cox and Taylor, these numbers just reinforce the conventional wisdom – Cathy Cox is stronger in the primary and she’s the best candidate to face Sonny Perdue. Boy, is this going to be an interesting race.

  18. Tater Tate says:

    I spoke with the Governor at the event and he did work the crowd, but only those who came to the front. There were long lines waiting to speak to him before and after he spoke. He was well received. Although I don’t remember names, I recall seeing a couple of other legislators than those mentioned, but it is vacation time. I doubt they like these kind of events outside of election years when it may seem mandatory. Seems like most of the ones mentioned represent areas nearby the location.

    I did notice a modest group of flaggers across from the entrance to the arena. Wonder how active they will be? I doubt they will have a major impact this year. I worry more about the teachers.

    I saw Karen Handle, but she seemed nervous. She only had a name tag with her name hand written. I doubt very many knew who she was.

    Clayton Black also had a strong presence. Where was Brian Kemp?

    Wonder why only Black, McQuire, and Reed had tables and banners? Stephens people were present, but where was he?

  19. Tater Tate says:

    Sorry. I only met him yesterday. I think I once knew a Clayton Black, or something. . . Gary seemed to be off to a good start.

  20. landman says:

    I would like those that constantly accuse the CC team produce one negative ad that they have run.Rebel’s claim of a conspiracy between CC and the media is lame.There is a large difference between mudslinging and speaking to factual events.CC will win but it will not be because of all the negtive print that RR has coming his way,but rather a question of qualification and experience for the job.

  21. Rebel says:

    From the May 25th, 2005 Athens Banner Herald
    AP Article by Dick Pettys

    “The email, which was sent by a rival’s campaign consultant, suggested Reed was having business difficulties because of press coverage of his involvement with high-profile Washington power brokers to oppose a gambling casino in Texas and a statewide lottery in Alabama in campaigns surreptitiously funded by rival gambling interests.”

    “The e-mail was sent by Joel McElhannon, Cagle’s political consultant, who wrote in the e-mail that he didn’t want the information to be attributed to him or to the Cagle campaign.â€?

    How many more stories did they plant and the liberal media willing go along to hurt a real conservative?

  22. landman says:

    Rebel,I find it interesting that you so easily believe the press when they give up a source,but yet rule out as mudslinging and negative campaigning all the various publications that have covered RR’s dealings.As I stated I do not believe RR’s questionable practices as a special interest political operative will be the reason he loses,but I find it hard to believe that people like yourself find it so easy to overlook such major moral flaws.As far as the real conservative I think CC’s conservative pedigree speaks for itself,as well as many of those who are supporting him.

  23. Rebel says:

    Landman, you asked for someone to “produce one negative ad that they have run.Rebel’s claim of a conspiracy between CC and the media is lame.” When, I did so, you tried to change the topic.
    Your mind is as made up as mine which is OK. Just don’t try and act like you’re willing to make a change if the right information presents itself. And, admit what the CAgle camp is doing – trying to discredit Reed. However, negative attacks (especially this early) turn off voters.

  24. Tater Tate says:

    Moral flaws? Hell, we’re all morally flawed. I’ve long since given up on finding perfect politiciams. I want winners who will serve up our conservative agenda. I want tax cuts and smaller government. And yes I do want to uphold families because I think many of our social ills and problems with public education come from a devaluing of family in this country. But saints I don’t want. I don’t think they can make it in the real world we want to influence and change through the political process.

    I belive CC is a good man and well qualified. But I don’t think you have to have been in the senate for a decade to be a presiding officer with little power. I want RR to be an influence for change and to join the team and push for action and change. I think he has shown he can do that. What does it say that his fellow senators would not elect CC majority leader when he tried for that position? Can you jump from failed leader of the Republicans in the Senate to become LG? Maybe he can, but don’t tell me RR is not “qualified.”

  25. jackson says:

    I would have to say that Rebel’s response to your comment Landman was pretty funny. I think he gotcha, though I wouldnt call that a negative ad. On the other hand, I guess you could say that the Reed campaigns comments that “Cagle is doesnt have anything to offer Georgians” is in the same ballpark.

    But I have a few questions for Rebel: Do you consider the Weekly Standard, Columnist David Brooks, Paul Weyrich and Phyllis Shafley to be part of the Vast Left Wing Conspiracy to tear down Ralph Reed?

    Frankly, I am tired of Ralph Reed complaining about “negative campaigning” when he trashed the hell out of Clint Day when he worked for now-convicted felon Mitch Skandalakis, among the many other races he was involved in.

    In addition, while we have gotten quite off the topic of the poll, the killer in the poll, according to a friend of mine, is that the favorable-unfavorable ratio is absolutely horrible for Ralph Reed. While Casey Cagles is 3-1, Ralph Reed’s is 2-1. Most folks with high name ID and only a 2-1 ratio (I am told) generally lose. While this may not be true, can you explain to me why this is a good thing for Ralph Reed, Rebel?

    Lastly, Tater Tate, do you really think losing a caucus election by 2 votes against another well qualified Republican Leader means that he is a failed leader? First we hear that the caucus doesnt matter in the endorsement game, now we hear it does. So what is it?

  26. landman says:

    Okay,Rebel you are absolutely correct we have both chosen our sides and I do not make any false pretenses about having my opinion changed,nor do I believe you will change yours.We are actually from what I read from your post in agreement on the balance of the primary races,but I do disagree with you on the tactics you claim CC’s team is employing,but its obvious that we will never agree on this topic either ,so I will not digress,but I must make the point that the example you used was not a negative ad.I think its public knowledge that RR did close his D.C. office a couple of months ago so it would make sense to me that business wasnt booming.Thus, one could logically assume the case that was made by the reporters source,whoever it was could once again be the tranmittal of factual information.The problem RR faces unlike in years past, he is the hunted, rather than the role of hunter that he was so good at.It is a reversal of roles that any sucessful political operative would have trouble managing,but as I have stated I dont believe this will be what wins it for CC.Unlike,Tater I do believe experience counts and is needed to provide better government to those who desire it.I dont know what Tater does for a living but in my businesses I interact with government at all levels and believe me it makes a large difference.Cagle losing by two votes to Tommie is a non issue.Tommie is a great guy and will go as far as he chooses to in Georgia politics.

  27. landman says:

    Jackson,I stand corrected,I knew that but Monday was a long day and I guess I had a brain to finger disconnect!!!!!!!!!!!

  28. Rebel says:

    I’m not a pollster, but currently W isn’t enjoying high numbers. 41 was in the 90’s and lost to Bill Clinton. A poll is a snapshot. Each new picture presents a different reality. The election is over 1 year away and the candidates get to present who they are to the electorate. And their opponent gets to define them as well as define themselves. So far the Cagle camp has worked on why Reed is bad, but they haven’t produced one piece of evidence as to why he’s better (yes, I know he’s the son of a single mom who built a business – that line’s old). All I can tell is he is BITTER about Ralph.

    And in regards to closing a DC office…perhaps since Ralph is running FOR Lt. Gov and not AGAINST anyone, he is focusing all his time and energy on running for office. He’s been in almost 100 different counties campaigning so far. That’s incredible!

    In contrast, Cagle has been in almost 100 different AJC editorial board meetings campaigning so far! 🙂

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