Mark Taylor – What Would It Take

I’m reliably told that top Democrats see the writing on the wall with the Mark Taylor campaign and have begun serious, private talking amongst themselves to see what deal can be struck to put Taylor back on the Lt. Governor’s ticket and prevent a heated contest against Cathy Cox.

Cox showing impressive fundraising prowess in the latest campaign disclosure cycle. One Democrat speculates that Ralph Reed is still the most likely Republican nominee for Lt. Gov. and imagines that a Taylor v. Reed fight would be lots of fun. He says, “Whether it is Cagle or Reed, Taylor can beat either. But, it would be lots of fun to watch Taylor and Reed fight.”

Cox is widely seen by both Democrats and Republicans as the one Democrat who can best give Sonny Perdue a run for his money (and he has lots of money according to his disclosure). The downside of a Cox v. Taylor primary is that both would get beaten up and both would use valuable resources otherwise available for the general election.

24 comments

  1. Bull Moose says:

    Mark Taylor is yesterday’s news…

    As long as Reed isn’t on the Republican ticket — A Perdue/Cagle ticket could win against a Cox/Taylor ticket

  2. Bill Simon says:

    For some bizarre reason, a “Perdue/Cagle ticket” sounds more like a corporate merger of two chicken enterprises than a political race… 😉

  3. buzzbrockway says:

    I just can’t see Taylor giving up on the Guv. race. Sure Cox’s disclosure was impressive, but Taylor is a smart politician. He’s had uphill fights before so why give up now? IIRC, Taylor wasn’t the first choice of the Democrat powers that be when he first ran for Lt. Gov.

    I know I’m in the minority but I still think Taylor will emerge as the Democrat nominee for Guv.

  4. Maverick says:

    I have to agree with Bill Simon on that one. I also halfway agree with Buzz. I doubt very seriously that Taylor will give that race up, however, I don’t think he has enough impetus to carry the nomination. At this point, the question remains, as I suggested several weeks ago, if the Democrat’s collective ignorance will emerge as corporate wisdom under the direction of Bobby Kahn…it appears that the concept might just be there.

  5. As someone who has met Mark Taylor several times, I can tell you that more than likely, he won’t be dropping out the race for Governor because he feels that it is his time to run.

    If you look at the way of things, if Roy Barnes had been re-elected, then Barnes would’ve been term limited out in ’06 & Taylor would’ve been the obvious choice as his successor.

    But obviously, things didn’t turn out that way and I think think that the Democrats need to craft a strategy that maximizes their performance next year because if they don’t, they’re going to wake up the day after the November 2006 elections looking at an AJC front page article entitled For Democrats, a day of dashed hopes.

  6. landman says:

    After looking at the numbers it looks like its going to be an interesting year.Early predictions in the primaries…..Cagle wins by 5-7%,Stephens wins regardless if Handel gets in or not,Kemp beats Black by 10% or greater,Sonny beats Cox by 2-3%if Cagle is on ticket loses with a Reed ticket.Sonny beats Taylor by 5-10% with Cagle,wins by 1-2% with Reed ticket.Ok experts what do you think?

  7. Bill Simon says:

    Stephens beats Handel if Handel gets in? I don’t think so. Stephens has a ton o’ baggage, not the least of which is a record of incompetence in keeping records straight…an incompetence that led to him getting slapped with something like a $15,000 fine from the Republican-dominated State Ethics Commission. I cannot fathom someone like Stephens managing or overseeing the tracking of corporate records or security registrations, or any of that stuff. Handel should get in, and the sooner the better.

    Kemp beats Black?…I’m with you there.

    Cagle beats Reed?…I’m hoping that is what happens. There is a trend that started in the 2002 primaries that candidates who have major ties to the CC do not make it out of primaries (e.g, Cecil Staton for Congress, Vernadette Broyles for SOS, Barbara Dooley for something, Bob Barr for Congress, etc.)

    In 2004, Johnny Isakson won with 52% of the vote, swamping Collins and Cain. The one thing Ralph has over Cain and Collins is his name recognition. The one thing Ralph has as his bane is his name recognition.

    But, I don’t underestimate Ralph’s ability to spin more lies about himself and suck people into his claque with whatever promise of the day he can come up with. Look for him to carefully slice-up his mail messages to be programmed specifically for each audience in a way that paints him as the Messiah of the GOP.

  8. Bull Moose says:

    Good points landman.

    Stephens is going to have a tough time. The only thing I know about him is that he faced the largest fine ever against an elected official for laundering campaign money to pay for personal expenses… That’s a hard one to beat.

    What did someone say get me all the candidates with ethical baggage this year?

    Kemp takes it in a cakewalk to go up against Tommy Irvin.

    Once the web of lies of Ralph Reed spread all over Georgia, he’s going to find it mighty tough to get over the proverbial hump. He loses to Cagle by 5-8%.

  9. landman says:

    Simon and Bull,I agree with you on the baggage issue with Stephens but what about the lack of name ID for Handel? Will Sonny have enough time to help pull her to the finish line?When do you guys believe is the drop dead date for her to decide if she is getting in to this race or the LT race?

  10. Isakson Republican says:

    On the Democrat side, Cox defeats Taylor 53% to 47%.

    On the Republican side, Perdue defeats Byrne 60% to 40% if Byrne runs.

    Cagle defeats Reed 52% to 48%.

    Handel and Stephens finish in a dead heat ahead of McGuire, and Handel defeats Stephens 55% to 45% in the runoff

    In the General Election, Perdue defeats Cox 51% to 49%.

    Cagle defeats the Democrat 55% to 45%.

    Handel defeats the Democrat 57% to 43%.

    Perdue loses to Cox with Reed on the ticket or Handel off.

  11. Maverick says:

    Cox defeats Taylor 53% to 47%.

    Perdue defeats Byrne 67% to 33%

    Reed defeats Cagle 55% to 45%.

    Handel/Stephens runoff…Handel defeats Stephens 55% to 45% in the runoff.

    Perdue defeats Cox 51% to 49%.

    Reed defeats Taylor 50.7 – 49.3

    Taylor defeats Cagle 53 – 47

    Just for the record, Bill Simon’s reference to the 2002 elections and CC trends has nothing to do with statistics or demographics, and everything to do with a personal dislike and jealousy he has of the consultant who ran all of the races he mentioned.
    Coincidentaly, this consultant lost several of those hard fought battles.

  12. Bill Simon says:

    Jealousy? Yeah, I guess I am a little jealous (in a strange, twisted way) of the ability of people like Ralph and Linda Hamrick to lie with such deftness and not have a twinge of guilt about their behavior. I wish I could just turn my life over to the concept that someone else has paid for my sins 2000 years ago, and as long as I state that I believe a certain way, I can sin as much as I want during my lifetime.

    Unfortunately, my parents instilled in me a sense of right and wrong that I cannot ignore. Darn my parents!!!

  13. Bull Moose says:

    Bull Moose AGAIN:

    GENERAL ELECTION SCENARIOS
    (there is puported to be a poll floating around that Reed is a 14 point negative for Perdue)

    Perdue VS. Cox (with Cagle Lt. Gov Candidate) 50.7 / 48.9 / .04 (libertarian)

    Perdue VS Cox (with Reed Lt. Gov Candidate) 46.3 / 51.3 / 2.4 (libertarian)

    Perdue VS Taylor (with Cagle Lt. Gov Candidate) 53.2 / 44.4 / 2.4 (lib.)

    Perdue VS Taylor (with Reed Lt. Gov) 48.9 / 50.1/ 1.2 (lib)

    GOP PRIMARY

    LT GOV
    Cagle VS Reed 50.2 V 49.8

    SEC STATE
    Stephens VS Handle VS Maguire 33 / 40 / 27
    RUNOFF: Stephens VS Handle 56 / 44

    AG
    No Primary

    Ag Commissioner
    Black VS Kemp 42 / 58

  14. buzzbrockway says:

    I think you guys are making way to much of the effect the down ballot races are going to have on Perdue. How many of you base you vote for Governor on who is running for other offices? I don’t, and do you really think that many people do? If Cagle wins, he’s going to run his own campaign and the same for Reed. Ditto for Sec. State and the other offices. Perdue is staying out of the primaries and will be busy running his own race.

    People like to blame Milner’s last loss on Skandalakis (sp?) but remember that Guy decided at the last minute to make affirmative action a big issue by running tv ads. That was a dumb mistake and probably had more to do with his loss than Mitch did.

  15. landman says:

    I must disagree with buzz,I think there is a large downside for Sonny if Ralph were to make it to the general.There has never been such a polarizing personality as Reed on a down ballot race before.Reed will not help solidify the mainstream base at all and will not swing any conservative minded dems.But,what he will do is lather up the dems and bring boatloads of liberal moolah to the state and that will increase voter turnout for them.This will definitely affect the Gov”s race in a negative way.

  16. Bill Simon says:

    Buzz, you and I and the 2.0% of the population that comprise the “activists” do not vote like normal people. Normal people do reason things out in a different way than us political freaks. 🙂

  17. buzzbrockway says:

    True Bill, we are freaks. 🙂

    I still wonder how many people link the Gubernatorial candidate with the others. It’s different that the Pres./VP relationship. Would the average voter really see Cagle/Reed as Sonny’s running mate? I’m not convinced they would – even the non-freak voters.

    Consider this: in 2002, Saxby got 30,000 more votes than Sonny, who got 130,000 more votes than Stancil, who got almost 200,000 more votes that Charlie Bailey. Clearly, our slate of candidates in 2006 will be…shall we say..more well funded…than our 2002 slate, but we always lose votes as we go down the ballot. The top of the ticket determines his/her own fate, not the lower races. In other words, I don’t see Reed winning or costing Sonny his reelection, nor do I see Stephens (not an endorsement) or Handle (not an endorsement) helping/hurting Sonny all that much.

  18. Bull Moose says:

    Um, Buzz, what cave have you been in for the past several years — I remember in 1998 when targeted radio ads ran that said ALERT ALERT: Mitch Skandalakis and Guy Millner are out to get you.

    I think the LT. GOV doesn’t necessarily help, but the wrong person in the position and on the ballot certainly hurts the candidate for GOV.

    Had it not been for Mitch Skandalakis, we might now be talking about the candidate running to take the place of 2 term Governor Millner.

    So my point is, Skandalakis hurt Millner, whereas a less controversial candidate would not have hurt Millner.

    Same thing could happen with Reed and if Cathy Cox is on the ticket, it isn’t going to take much for people to go ahead and vote for her and her down ticket team in the general… With so much at stake, we can’t give moderates, independents, and conservative democrats the chance to vote against the Republican team.

    This is to the true (GENUINE) conservatives — exercise some common sense.

  19. buzzbrockway says:

    Bull,

    We’ll have to agree to disagree in this one. One final point in my favor is that Georgians split tickets all the time. Perdue/Taylor in 2002, Bush/Miller in 2000, Coverdell/Barnes in 1998, are three recent examples.

    If you want to support Cagle and oppose Reed by all means do so, but the claim that Reed would drag down Perdue just won’t fly.

  20. landman says:

    Buzz,I disagree Reed is a liabililty and brings too much collatteral damage with him,and Im confident the Georgia Republican mainstream voter will see this.Its going to be fun to watch this race!!!!!!!!

  21. Maverick says:

    Hmmm, interesting that even though you say that, Bill, you haven’t said a word to any of the other Cagle-worshippers on this site who also have much “baser” spelling and grammar errors…why? I reckon it’s because their opinion agrees with yours.

  22. Bill Simon says:

    MJ, are you responding to a post I made in a different part of this blog?

    With regards to who I criticize, when it is the same person who spells “Brian” as “Bryan” and “Eric” as “Erick”, it becomes an issue of whether or not you really KNOW enough about the subject matter to even debate it.

    Unless, of course, you might be from England or some other country, and then the misspellings could be acceptable because you are not familiar with American names. Are you a “fur-in-err?” 🙂

  23. Maverick says:

    Yeap, sure was. I understand your rational. The problem is, it doesn’t change the reality of what the political landscape in Georgia really is. And in answer to your question, no, I’m not a foreigner. I was born and raised in Georgia.

Comments are closed.