In considering the pros and cons of nominating Ralph Reed or Casey Cagle to be Lite Governor of the State of Georgia, Republicans may want to consider what I shall henceforth call the Passive-Aggressive Tammy Wynette FactorTM.
The PATWFTM is a measure of how much supporters are willing to stand by their man in the reverse. By that, I mean this — if your guy does not get the nomination, how likely are you to support the guy who does get the nomination. Here are the results of the first ever non-scientific PATWFTM involving Reed and Cagle. I surveyed 50 individuals: 25 for Ralph and 25 for Cagle.
Of Ralph Supporters, those who are willing to stand by Cagle should he get the nomination:
19 out of 25 or 76%. That’s a very good showing. Of the remainder, most were inclined to go with Cagle, but only if he doesn’t beat up too badly on Ralph.
Of Casey Supporters, those who were willing to stand by Reed should he get the nomination:
13 out of 25 or 52%. That’s not too good. Of the remainder, most said they would just focus on other races and stay out of it (but would vote for Ralph), but 5 said they would work against Ralph because they don’t want him to become the standard bearer, or have the potential to become the standard bearer, of the party.
Now, let’s be honest. This doesn’t amount to much. It was really just an excuse for me to coin the phrase “Passive-Aggressive Tammy Wynette Factor” and wait for Michael Baron to pick it up. Until then, here is what it tells me — a good number of people are anti-Ralph and Ralph is going to have a harder time making peace with these individuals than Casey would in making peace with Ralph’s supporters.
I have no doubt that most of the people who say they won’t help Ralph, will help Ralph. And I have no doubt that most of those who really won’t help Ralph will still vote for him — they’ll just want to see him work harder and take the lead in building bridges to them.
But, it does add an interesting dynamic. A lot of people really like Ralph. A lot of people really don’t.
With that, I’m going to try to avoid writing about this race for at least 24 hours because I’m burning out on the topic.